RBA predicts slow growth and limited interest rate cuts

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RBA forecasts indicate ongoing cost-of-living struggles and a low likelihood of interest rate cuts. The Reserve Bank’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) suggests Australia’s economy will grow at around 2% annually, primarily driven by housing investment.

Unemployment rose to 4.5% last month but is expected to remain steady just below this level for the next two years. Some economists challenge this optimism. Productivity is improving more quickly than anticipated but remains relatively low by historical standards.

Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to stay persistently high despite solid growth and stable unemployment. The bank highlighted that last week’s inflation figures were significantly higher than expected, with the annual consumer price rise predicted to reach 3.7% by next June. With wage growth forecasted at only 3%, workers’ purchasing power is expected to decline.

No Rate Cuts

The RBA’s lack of interest rate cut forecasts have led markets to lower their expectations. The cash rate is predicted to bottom out at 3.3% next year, a revision from earlier projections of 2.9%. Many economists believe further cuts are unlikely, with a median expectation for no cuts until late next year.

RBA governor Michele Bullock acknowledged that maintaining the current rate is possible, noting that the RBA may not need to reduce rates significantly as other central banks have.

Competitive banking conditions offer some relief to borrowers, resulting in reduced spreads on variable-rate mortgages. Nonetheless, there are concerns that these spreads could increase as banks aim for higher profitability or as market risk premiums adjust. Australian variable mortgage rates may have reached their lowest point for the foreseeable future.