In Short:
– Jerome Powell stated further interest rate cuts are uncertain after recent decreases, aiming to manage market expectations.
– The Fed ended its balance sheet reduction due to lending market disruptions and mixed views on future rate cuts among officials.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed following the recent decrease. In a press conference, he stated that a further reduction in December is “far from” certain. His comments aimed to temper market expectations, where the likelihood of another cut was previously estimated at over 90 per cent.In response to Powell’s remarks, yields on the two-year treasury rose, and traders adjusted their expectations, now estimating a 60 per cent chance of a December reduction. Recently, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.75-4 per cent, in response to concerns about the labour market.

The Fed has also announced an end to its balance sheet reduction efforts due to disruptions in short-term lending markets. Since 2022, the bank has reduced its asset holdings by over $US2 trillion following aggressive purchases aimed at stabilising the economy after the pandemic.

Policy Divisions

Recent post-meeting statements highlighted mixed views among Fed officials about the pace of future rate cuts. Powell remarked that uncertainty surrounding economic conditions necessitates a cautious approach. Ongoing government shutdowns have limited policymakers’ access to crucial economic data, complicating decision-making.

Recent labour market developments show slowed job gains, raising concerns about employment. The Fed is also cautious about reducing rates too quickly due to inflation remaining above their 2 per cent target, reflecting a complex economic landscape. Policymakers have struggled with decisions amid data limitations from the government shutdown, impacting their assessments of inflation and economic indicators.

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In Short:
– Trump and South Korea’s Lee finalised a trade deal requiring $350 billion in U.S. investments.
– Trump anticipates favourable talks with China to reduce tariffs and improve relations.

Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung finalised a contentious trade deal at a summit in South Korea on Wednesday. The U.S. President expressed optimism about an upcoming summit with China’s Xi Jinping.The agreement, unveiled in late July, stipulated that South Korea would make $350 billion in new investments in the U.S. to avoid significant tariffs on imports. However, negotiations on the investment structure had stalled.

Trump and Lee reached a compromise allowing Seoul to divide its $350 billion investment into $200 billion in cash, paid in $20 billion instalments. The remaining $150 billion will be allocated to shipbuilding investments.

Upon arrival from Tokyo, following a North Korea missile test, President Trump received an extravagant welcome in the historic city of Gyeongju, the venue for this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

His discussions with Xi are scheduled for Thursday in Busan. Trump downplayed the North Korea missile test and focused on his meeting with Xi, the leader of the world’s second-largest economy.

“I think we’re going to have a very good outcome for our country and for the world,” Trump stated. He anticipates reducing U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for China agreeing to control the export of fentanyl precursor chemicals. The Wall Street Journal reported that tariffs could be halved from the current 20%.

China’s foreign ministry indicated that the upcoming meeting would foster positive developments in U.S.-China relations.

Investment Structure