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Markets anxiously await Fed Reserve rate decision

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Global markets are expected to experience a decline as investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Australia’s inflation figures.

The current earnings season in the S&P 500 has shown that 76% of companies have surpassed earnings expectations, while 62% have beaten revenue estimates. However, according to the blended growth rate, earnings are predicted to fall by 7.7% compared to the previous year, with the energy sector anticipated to experience the largest decline.

General Electric (GE) has rallied to a six-year high, outperforming tech stocks in 2023 with a 72.4% increase in share value. GE’s second-quarter earnings have exceeded expectations, strengthening the company’s position ahead of its planned spin-off of the Power/Renewables division from the Aerospace unit. The aerospace business is thriving, and GE Vernova, the power business, is gaining momentum.

Inflation forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global growth forecast to 3% for 2023, up from 2.8% in its April assessment, despite China’s economic recovery showing signs of slowing down. Inflation is also expected to improve, with headline inflation projected to reach 6.8% in 2023, down from 8.7% in 2022.

Consumer sentiment in the US has reached a two-year high in July, as reported by The Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index reached 117, up from 110.1 in June, though it fell short of Wall Street’s expectations of 112. The expectations index also rose, indicating a positive outlook, and the “jobs plentiful” index increased. However, the perceived likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months also edged up to 70.6%.

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Divorce spike in Australia triggers hidden tax risks

Australia sees increased divorce filings amid emotional challenges, with many couples overlooking significant tax pitfalls in their settlements.

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Australia sees increased divorce filings amid emotional challenges, with many couples overlooking significant tax pitfalls in their settlements.


Australia is facing a sharp rise in divorce filings over the past two months — but as couples navigate emotional breakups, many are missing major tax traps hidden in their settlements.

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Stocks rebound despite tariff concerns and earnings anticipation

US stocks rebound amid tariff uncertainty; key earnings reports and economic data loom as volatility persists in the market.

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US stocks rebound amid tariff uncertainty; key earnings reports and economic data loom as volatility persists in the market.

In Short

The stock market recovered after an early decline, led by companies like Boeing and IBM.

Investors are cautious ahead of upcoming economic data and potential trade developments, with projections of a 7% drop in S&P 500 earnings by 2025 due to tariffs.

A late recovery in the stock market reversed an early decline as dip buyers entered during a volatile day.

On Monday, the S&P 500 completed its fifth reversal of 1% or more in a month, matching the total seen throughout 2024. Gains were led by Boeing and IBM, while Nvidia fell following Huawei’s announcement regarding a new chip. Major tech companies, including Microsoft and Apple, are expected to report earnings soon.

Short-term Treasuries performed better, and the dollar weakened amidst ongoing economic data releases.

Economic data

The upcoming week promises substantial economic data, with reports on jobs and inflation due. A Texas manufacturing survey revealed significant weakness, with executives describing the tariff situation as chaotic.

Experts predict an eventful week, with potential for market volatility driven by various trade and economic headlines. Investors are particularly attuned to trade relations with China, with outlooks hinging on government actions.

Despite some executives remaining uncertain about tariff impacts, analysts are calculating potential effects on corporate earnings. Bloomberg Economics projects net income for the S&P 500 could drop around 7% by 2025 due to elevated tariff rates, compared to previous growth expectations.

Morgan Stanley suggests that a weak dollar may help US earnings, keeping the S&P 500 within a 5,000 to 5,500 range unless trade agreements with China are made, alongside a rebound in earnings and potential easing of monetary policy.

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Busy week: big tech earnings, U.S. jobs data

Busy week for markets with major tech earnings and U.S. jobs data shaping investor sentiment amid trade uncertainties.

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Busy week for markets with major tech earnings and U.S. jobs data shaping investor sentiment amid trade uncertainties.

In Short

Next week, major tech companies, including Apple and Microsoft, will report earnings alongside key economic data, amid ongoing global trade concerns.

The S&P 500 has seen some recovery but remains down 10% since February, with investors anxiously awaiting the U.S. jobs report and economic growth indicators.

Next week, U.S. markets anticipate significant activity as big tech companies release earnings and crucial economic data is reported.

Investors will focus on corporate results from major firms like Apple and Microsoft, alongside the U.S. jobs report and first-quarter economic growth data. This comes amidst ongoing concerns related to global trade that could affect market stability.

The S&P 500 index has seen modest recovery recently, cutting its previous losses but still down roughly 10% from February’s peak. Optimism has been partially driven by indications of a softer trade approach from the Trump administration.

Market sensitivity

Michael Mullaney of Boston Partners noted that stock market sensitivity remains high, responding rapidly to any shifts in tariff news. Recent easing of trade tensions, including a pause in major tariffs announced by Trump, has contributed to market gains, but uncertainty continues.

In the forthcoming week, about 180 S&P 500 companies, accounting for over 40% of the index’s value, will announce their quarterly performance. Early reports indicate strong earnings growth, though some firms have lowered profit forecasts, highlighting potential challenges ahead.

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