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Half of Republicans will dump Trump support if he’s convicted

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A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that about 50% of Republicans would not support Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election if he were convicted of a felony.

The poll results highlight the significant risks posed to his candidacy due to ongoing legal challenges.

The former president, currently leading the Republican nomination race for the November 2024 presidential election, is facing federal charges for allegedly orchestrating a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results. In addition to this, he is embroiled in two other criminal cases – one involving hush money payments to an adult film actress in a New York state court and another in federal court, where he is accused of retaining sensitive national security documents after leaving office in January 2021.

The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll asked respondents whether they would vote for Trump in the next presidential election if he were “convicted of a felony crime by a jury.” Among Republicans, 45% said they would not vote for him, whereas 35% expressed their support. The remaining respondents were undecided.

Will he go to jail?

When asked if they would vote for Trump if he were “currently serving time in prison,” 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28% who said they would.

Trump vehemently denies all charges and claims that the prosecutions are part of a politically motivated “witch hunt” aimed at derailing his campaign. The cases against him have been brought by the U.S. Department of Justice, which is under the leadership of Democratic President Joe Biden, but efforts have been made to ensure the investigations remain free from political influence. The New York state case is being led by an elected Democratic prosecutor.

The poll indicated that a significant portion of Republicans sympathize with Trump’s allegations of political persecution. Approximately 75% of Republican respondents agreed that the charges against Trump were politically motivated, while 20% disagreed, and the rest were unsure.

Election fraud

Additionally, around two-thirds of Republicans, or 66%, found the latest indictment against Trump, accusing him of soliciting election fraud, as “not believable.” Conversely, 29% found it believable, and the remainder were uncertain.

The survey also revealed that Republican respondents would be more inclined to withhold their votes from an unnamed convicted felon than from Donald Trump. When asked about how a felony conviction would affect their voting choices in a hypothetical scenario, 71% of Republicans stated they would not vote for the convict, whereas 52% said they would not vote for Trump in such a situation.

Despite the legal challenges, Trump’s popularity within the Republican nomination contest has risen since the first charges were filed in April. He now holds a significant lead over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, maintaining 47% of Republican support as seen in a July poll, while DeSantis’ share has slipped to 13%.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted nationwide and gathered responses from 1,005 U.S. adults via an online platform. The credibility interval, indicating precision, was approximately four percentage points.

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Trump’s “very productive” deal: What’s behind the U.S.-China agreement?

US and China agree to new terms amid trade war, following productive talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He.

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US and China agree to new terms amid trade war, following productive talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He.


The United States and China have reached a new agreement amid an intensifying trade war between the world’s two largest economies. This comes after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held their first in-person talks since the imposition of heavy tariffs on both sides.

President Trump has described the discussions as “very productive,” signaling cautious optimism as financial markets remain volatile and American consumers feel the pinch of rising prices. Secretary Bessent addressed reporters after long negotiations, underlining the urgency both sides felt to de-escalate the stalemate.

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U.S. and China strike surprise trade deal

US and China reach a significant trade deal amid tensions, signaling thawing relations, while the UK secures symbolic concessions; insights from economist Tim Harcourt.

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US and China reach a significant trade deal amid tensions, signaling thawing relations, while the UK secures symbolic concessions; insights from economist Tim Harcourt.


In a stunning development amid rising tensions, the United States and China have agreed on a new deal as part of their ongoing trade war.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held the first in-person meetings in years, signaling a potential thaw in relations.

President Trump called the talks “very productive.”

Meanwhile, the UK has managed to score key trade concessions from the US, including on autos, jet engines, and steel—although the benefits may be more symbolic than substantial. Could this deal impact Australia’s trade position?

We unpack the details with Professor Tim Harcourt, Chief Economist at UTS and host of The Airport Economist.

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Inflation data, earnings reports, and market trends to watch

Investors focus on inflation data, trade meetings, Fed remarks, retail sales, and key earnings reports this week.

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Investors focus on inflation data, trade meetings, Fed remarks, retail sales, and key earnings reports this week.

In Short:
Inflation data will be a key focus this week, alongside trade meeting results and important earnings reports. Investors will monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and various economic indicators, including retail sales and sentiment surveys.

Inflation data set for Tuesday is expected to be a focal point this week.

Investors will also assess the results of recent U.S. and Chinese trade meetings following a quiet Friday that saw stock declines for the week.

On Thursday, remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely monitored as he faces pressure from President Donald Trump regarding interest rate decisions.

Retail sales figures will also be released on Thursday, coinciding with Walmart’s earnings report.

Key earnings announcements this week include those from Cisco Systems, Alibaba Group, Deere & Co., Applied Materials, and Take-Two Interactive.

In addition, consumer and small business sentiment surveys, along with data from the homebuilding and manufacturing sectors, may also draw interest.

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