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Half of Republicans will dump Trump support if he’s convicted

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A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that about 50% of Republicans would not support Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election if he were convicted of a felony.

The poll results highlight the significant risks posed to his candidacy due to ongoing legal challenges.

The former president, currently leading the Republican nomination race for the November 2024 presidential election, is facing federal charges for allegedly orchestrating a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results. In addition to this, he is embroiled in two other criminal cases – one involving hush money payments to an adult film actress in a New York state court and another in federal court, where he is accused of retaining sensitive national security documents after leaving office in January 2021.

The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll asked respondents whether they would vote for Trump in the next presidential election if he were “convicted of a felony crime by a jury.” Among Republicans, 45% said they would not vote for him, whereas 35% expressed their support. The remaining respondents were undecided.

Will he go to jail?

When asked if they would vote for Trump if he were “currently serving time in prison,” 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28% who said they would.

Trump vehemently denies all charges and claims that the prosecutions are part of a politically motivated “witch hunt” aimed at derailing his campaign. The cases against him have been brought by the U.S. Department of Justice, which is under the leadership of Democratic President Joe Biden, but efforts have been made to ensure the investigations remain free from political influence. The New York state case is being led by an elected Democratic prosecutor.

The poll indicated that a significant portion of Republicans sympathize with Trump’s allegations of political persecution. Approximately 75% of Republican respondents agreed that the charges against Trump were politically motivated, while 20% disagreed, and the rest were unsure.

Election fraud

Additionally, around two-thirds of Republicans, or 66%, found the latest indictment against Trump, accusing him of soliciting election fraud, as “not believable.” Conversely, 29% found it believable, and the remainder were uncertain.

The survey also revealed that Republican respondents would be more inclined to withhold their votes from an unnamed convicted felon than from Donald Trump. When asked about how a felony conviction would affect their voting choices in a hypothetical scenario, 71% of Republicans stated they would not vote for the convict, whereas 52% said they would not vote for Trump in such a situation.

Despite the legal challenges, Trump’s popularity within the Republican nomination contest has risen since the first charges were filed in April. He now holds a significant lead over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, maintaining 47% of Republican support as seen in a July poll, while DeSantis’ share has slipped to 13%.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted nationwide and gathered responses from 1,005 U.S. adults via an online platform. The credibility interval, indicating precision, was approximately four percentage points.

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Tesla’s robotaxi reveal sparks excitement

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Analysts and investors are eagerly awaiting Elon Musk’s big reveal—a fully functional autonomous vehicle that could revolutionise ride-hailing.

Tesla’s stock has soared 52% since Musk first announced the event in April, reflecting high hopes for the launch of its much-anticipated robotaxi.

The vehicle, dubbed the “Cybercab,” is said to be a sleek, two-seater without a steering wheel or pedals—straight out of the future.

Tesla also teased a ride-hailing app that will summon these driverless cars to pick up riders at their chosen locations.

Not convincing

But not everyone is convinced—some analysts warn that while Musk’s vision is bold, the timeline for these innovations may not deliver immediate results.

Musk has a history of overpromising on autonomous tech, and this event might be more about grand ideas than tangible products.

Tesla first floated the robotaxi idea in 2016, with Musk hinting at a future where owners could lease their cars to others for extra income.

If the software keeps pace with Musk’s ambitions, the future of driverless Teslas might be closer than we think.

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Inflation creeps up as core CPI rises in September

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The core consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.3% year-over-year in September, signalling continued inflationary pressure in the U.S.

 

Month-over-month, the increase was 0.3%, slightly higher than the expected 0.2%, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policy.

This latest inflation data narrows the Fed’s room to manoeuvre, making a significant rate cut at their next meeting less likely.

In other economic news, weekly U.S. unemployment claims have risen to 258,000.

Latest numbers

Ticker’s Ahron Young spoke with Steve Gopalan from SkandaFX about the latest numbers.

Steve Gopalan discusses the impact of rising unemployment claims, inflation, and geopolitical tensions on the market, including the potential effects of Israeli strikes on Iran and China’s policies.

He also addresses expectations for the Fed reserve rate cut and near-term risks affecting the Australian economy and talks about how traders are preparing for China’s Finance Minister news conference on fiscal policy.

The increase in claims is partly attributed to the impact of Hurricane Helene and furloughs at Boeing.

Economists are closely watching how these factors will play into broader economic trends.

With inflation rising and unemployment numbers fluctuating, the economic outlook remains uncertain.

 

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Middle East tensions rise as Iran issues warnings

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Tehran is threatening to target oil-rich Gulf states and other U.S. allies if their territories are used in any attack on Iran, Arab officials reveal.

Israel has warned Tehran of severe consequences after a recent barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles hit the country. In response, Iran vows to strike Israel’s civilian infrastructure and any Arab state that aids in the assault.

Countries like Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have already expressed concerns to the Biden administration, saying they don’t want to be part of any offensive actions against Iran.

These Gulf states, traditionally under U.S. protection, fear Iran could target their vital oil facilities if the conflict escalates.

With U.S. troops stationed across the region, officials are on high alert as Tehran’s threats loom over an area packed with American military personnel.

Tensions between Israel and Iran continue to rise, with both sides exchanging warnings of devastating consequences.

The energy-rich Persian Gulf, known for its stability under U.S. protection, could now be at risk as the situation remains tense.

The eyes of the world are focused on the region, as threats of conflict keep mounting.

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