A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that about 50% of Republicans would not support Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election if he were convicted of a felony.

The poll results highlight the significant risks posed to his candidacy due to ongoing legal challenges.

The former president, currently leading the Republican nomination race for the November 2024 presidential election, is facing federal charges for allegedly orchestrating a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results. In addition to this, he is embroiled in two other criminal cases – one involving hush money payments to an adult film actress in a New York state court and another in federal court, where he is accused of retaining sensitive national security documents after leaving office in January 2021.

The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll asked respondents whether they would vote for Trump in the next presidential election if he were “convicted of a felony crime by a jury.” Among Republicans, 45% said they would not vote for him, whereas 35% expressed their support. The remaining respondents were undecided.

Will he go to jail?

When asked if they would vote for Trump if he were “currently serving time in prison,” 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28% who said they would.

Trump vehemently denies all charges and claims that the prosecutions are part of a politically motivated “witch hunt” aimed at derailing his campaign. The cases against him have been brought by the U.S. Department of Justice, which is under the leadership of Democratic President Joe Biden, but efforts have been made to ensure the investigations remain free from political influence. The New York state case is being led by an elected Democratic prosecutor.

The poll indicated that a significant portion of Republicans sympathize with Trump’s allegations of political persecution. Approximately 75% of Republican respondents agreed that the charges against Trump were politically motivated, while 20% disagreed, and the rest were unsure.

Election fraud

Additionally, around two-thirds of Republicans, or 66%, found the latest indictment against Trump, accusing him of soliciting election fraud, as “not believable.” Conversely, 29% found it believable, and the remainder were uncertain.

The survey also revealed that Republican respondents would be more inclined to withhold their votes from an unnamed convicted felon than from Donald Trump. When asked about how a felony conviction would affect their voting choices in a hypothetical scenario, 71% of Republicans stated they would not vote for the convict, whereas 52% said they would not vote for Trump in such a situation.

Despite the legal challenges, Trump’s popularity within the Republican nomination contest has risen since the first charges were filed in April. He now holds a significant lead over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, maintaining 47% of Republican support as seen in a July poll, while DeSantis’ share has slipped to 13%.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted nationwide and gathered responses from 1,005 U.S. adults via an online platform. The credibility interval, indicating precision, was approximately four percentage points.