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Global inflation is on the way down, offering hope for startups and stocks

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In a recent analysis, Wilsons Advisory has asserted that global inflation pressures are showing signs of abating, despite the resilience of the US economy and mounting concerns about the worldwide oil price.

This development carries positive implications for both equities and bonds.

Wilsons strategist, David Cassidy, emphasized that the surge in inflation witnessed during 2021 and 2022 should be viewed as more transient than structural. Cassidy’s assessment suggests that, in the absence of a substantial energy shock, the global inflationary trend is expected to witness a significant downturn over the next 12 months, coinciding with a slowdown in the global economy.

Cassidy stated, “This should be supportive, all things equal, for both equities and bonds.”

While acknowledging the likelihood of slightly elevated inflation rates over the next 5-10 years compared to the period spanning from the global financial crisis (GFC) to the pre-pandemic era due to supply chain restructuring and energy transition expenses, Mr. Cassidy pointed out that the exceptionally high inflation levels experienced in 2021-2022 are likely a thing of the past. This is attributed to the normalization of supply chains and a gradual reduction in global excess demand.

Cassidy issued a word of caution, reminding investors that while their 12-month inflation outlook remains relatively favorable, they should not anticipate a linear deceleration. He also emphasized the importance of not disregarding geopolitical risks linked to global energy prices. Nevertheless, the firm’s fundamental stance remains one of anticipating a significant reduction in global inflation over the course of the upcoming year.

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Big Tech pushes AI investments

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Tech giants like Microsoft and Meta are accelerating AI data center spending, with massive capital pouring into these projects.

Microsoft and Meta reported on Wednesday that AI investments are spiking their expenses, while Alphabet announced similar trends.

Amazon, due to report earnings shortly, is expected to mirror these projections, foreseeing further pressure on profit margins.

Wall Street is getting wary of the financial strain, as each company’s stock took a hit this week despite strong quarterly numbers.

Shares of Meta fell over 3%, and Microsoft saw a 6% drop, underscoring Wall Street’s jitters.

“It’s expensive to keep up with AI technology demands,” says GlobalData’s Beatriz Valle, emphasising a competitive race in AI capacity.

The high-stakes investments are starting to test investor patience in Big Tech’s ambitious AI journey.

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Meta expects strong holiday ad revenue boost

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Meta’s holiday-quarter forecast beats expectations as AI tools drive growth

Meta Platforms, parent company of Facebook, has forecast holiday-quarter revenue that surpasses market expectations, anticipating a surge in ad spending as the year ends.

The projection comes as Meta’s AI-driven advertising tools and short-form video feature Reels have spurred revenue growth this year.

Meta’s shares dipped 2.5% in after-hours trading, despite a third-quarter profit of $6.03 per share—well above analysts’ forecast of $5.25.

Analysts expect digital ads to have a “blockbuster” year in 2024, helped by improved economic forecasts and steady consumer spending.

Meta, heavily reliant on advertising revenue, stands to benefit from increased holiday marketing as it eyes revenues of $45 to $48 billion this quarter.

The company’s third-quarter revenue reached $40.59 billion, narrowly topping analysts’ estimates.

With interest rates easing, analysts suggest Meta’s ad revenue could continue to thrive into the new year.

As holiday spending ramps up, Meta’s AI investments are paying off.

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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella receives $30 million pay raise

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Despite layoffs, Nadella’s pay jumps 63% amid company growth

Microsoft’s CEO, Satya Nadella, saw a significant 63% pay raise this year, with his total compensation rising to $71 million, up from $48.5 million in 2023. This comes even as Microsoft laid off 2,500 employees, including job cuts in its gaming division, following its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

While concerns were raised in Congress over cybersecurity breaches, Microsoft’s stock still rose by over 16% this year, benefiting investors, although it lags behind the broader S&P 500. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the company’s earnings report next week.

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