Connect with us
https://tickernews.co/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/AmEx-Thought-Leaders.jpg

Money

FTX contagion will hit crypto hard

Published

on

Crypto assets are infamous for being highly speculative and volatile, but it is their “debt problems” that have once again made headlines.

Since November 2021, the total value of cryptocurrencies has now fallen from a peak of over US$3 trillion (£2.6 trillion) to circa US$830 billion (£706 billion).

This has coincided with a major downturn in global markets due to interest rates going up, but falling prices also reflect a series of collapses and bankruptcies within the industry. These include the Terra Luna blockchain, lender Celsius, the Voyager exchange/brokerage, hedge fund 3AC, and now also FTX/Alameda, which has just filed for bankruptcy.

Crypto assets total value

The collapse of FTX, the world’s second largest crypto exchange, concerns a liquidity crisis. This is where a company doesn’t have enough cash or its assets cannot be converted to cash quickly enough to satisfy demand.

In the case of FTX, there had been concerns about the closeness of its relationship with its hedge fund sister company Alameda. These boiled over when rival exchange Binance announced a few days ago that it was sufficiently worried to unload US$500 million of holdings in the FTX native cryptocurrency FTT.

Panicked investors began selling FTT and related cryptocurrencies quickly, leading them to plummet in value. Alameda tried to buy enough FTT to keep prices up, but ran out of firepower. FTT fell to ruinous levels, doing severe financial damage to Alameda and FTX.

In parallel, frightened FTX customers withdrew US$6 billion from the exchange in just three days. FTX then halted withdrawals, having apparently lent the rest of customers’ money to Alameda, trapping customers with holdings worth billions more on the exchange – perhaps permanently.

With numerous major FTX investors like BlackRock, Ontario Teachers Pension Fund and Sequoia Capital also in line to lose all their money, chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is reportedly trying to raise US$9.4 billion. Ominously, Binance initially expressed interest in buying FTX but pulled out after looking at its rival’s finances.

Will anyone else rescue FTX? This could happen by institutional investors buying lots of FTT to drive its price back up, or pumping US dollars into the exchange to reassure customers and allow them to withdraw their money.

In research that I conducted with colleagues, we showed that investing in recent “losers” like FTT can be a profitable strategy in the short term. They tend to have higher returns in the week after a sharp fall than previous strong performers.

Overall, however, a rescue seems unlikely. It would be very risky to attempt to rescue an exchange that potentially has no fundamental value. Market sentiment also remains negative because of the economic backdrop: US inflation may now have peaked, suggesting interest rates will stop rising, but it’s still early days.

Without a rescue, there are essentially three issues: what it means for the crypto industry, what it means for crypto assets like bitcoin, and what it means for global financial markets and the wider economy.

The contagion in the crypto industry could be ugly. Various crypto investment firms like Genesis and Multicoin Capital have confirmed they have large sums of money trapped on FTX.

The other issue is Alameda, which is soon to be defunct. It appears to owe multiple billions of US dollars in trading money borrowed from lenders besides FTX, which will probably not be paid back. This could cause solvency issues elsewhere. Crypto bank BlockFi, which was itself rescued by FTX following the Luna collapse earlier in the year, has already halted customer withdrawals.

As for crypto prices, bitcoin has fallen from about US$21,000 to as low as the mid-$15,500s before recovering to above US$17,000 at present. With many smaller cryptos falling even harder, expect further selling as players hit by FTX move their investments into dollars to stay afloat.

Bitcoin price chart

Worse still, Alameda is one of crypto’s largest market makers, a crucial role in financial markets which involves taking the other side of a trade to enable buyers and sellers to transact. At a time when more selling is likely, reduced trading liquidity could drag prices down even further, potentially creating a wider stampede.

Nonetheless, an FTX/Alameda bankruptcy may not see bitcoin completely collapse in price. Because it is more decentralised than other crypto assets, meaning its not controlled by any single entity, investors may to some extent swap it for their other cryptocurrencies rather than buying US dollars. Overall, JP Morgan reckons that bitcoin might drop to US$13,000 in the weeks ahead, suggesting we’re not too far from the bottom.

It’s also worth noting previous findings from my team that the amount of stablecoin Tether in circulation is a good indicator of future crypto prices. This bottomed in the summer and has not dropped significantly recently.

Could FTX contagion also threaten overall financial stability, similar to the Lehman collapse in 2008? Generally, cryptocurrencies are not yet considered a serious threat to global financial stability since they are still poorly linked to real economic activities beyond the financial sector.

However, if large institutional investors exit crypto altogether and sell bitcoin and other tokens en masse, crypto prices could fall even harder and lead to increased spillover. Other crypto investors would take another hit and spend less in the wider economy as a result, or sell non-crypto holdings like shares to cover their losses.

Based on our analysis of liquidity, Canadian, US and EU stock markets are more closely linked to crypto than Chinese and Japanese stock markets. Therefore the reaction of these markets to cryptocurrency problems would be more pronounced.

Overall, however, FTX is still probably much more of a crypto problem than a wider problem: it’s the story of how disastrous financial management by FTX and its rivalry with Binance has threatened the stability of the cryptocurrency markets. We’ll be watching closely to see how the contagion plays out in the coming weeks.

Continue Reading

Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

Published

on

As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

Continue Reading

Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

Published

on

Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

Continue Reading

Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

Published

on

A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

Continue Reading
Live Watch Ticker News Live
Advertisement

Trending Now