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First Xi, now Trump: tariff impacts on the Australian economy

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First, the tariffs from China hit Australian exporters now it’s the Trump tariffs on steel and aluminium – and as we have just learnt there will be no exemption.

How will these measures affect the USA, but also China, Australia and the rest of the global economy?

Like the China COVID tariffs, the Trump tariffs will hurt Australian workers. 

After all, 1 in 5 Australian workers depend on exporters and exporters pay 60 per cent higher wages on average than non-exporters in union jobs with EBAs. This will be bad for the steel workers of the Illawarra and the aluminium workers of Portland, and will also be inflationary, and put upward pressure on interest rates. That’s why we have seen the impact of tariff decisions (and tariff uncertainty) hitting the Australian share market and superannuation balances.

As a former Australian Prime Minister, could Ambassador Kevin Rudd got an exemption? I am sure he’s trying. But his pre-election comments disparaging Trump have not helped Australia’s interests not have the recent comments of another former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. But to be fair, both Rudd and Turnbull have also been critical of Beijing. 

Of course, Australia is not alone. The USA’s North America closet trading partner, Canada is in the same boat, as is Mexico. Canada has just had a leadership election with former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney (who was also Bank of England Governor) taking over as Prime Minister of Canada from Justin Trudeau. The Canadian Tories led by Pierre Poilievre are going to paint Carney as a Globalist, more comfortable in Switzerland than Saskatoon, but the tariffs on Canada give the new Prime Minister a chance to wrap himself in the Maple Leaf and fight the Trump tariffs. Carney can also paint Poilievre as Trump lite, and improve the Liberals chances in a contest suffering from the unpopularity of Trudeau. When a central banker can replaced a charismatic second-generation politician as Prime Minister and have a better chance we know we are living in interesting times. 

With China and the USA unreliable trade partners, what options does Australia have? The Albanese Labor Government, to their credit have improved relations with our North East Asian trading partners like Japan and South Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN (with the special Australia ASEAN summit in Melbourne last year) as well as Europe and the emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Latin America.

We could actually get closer to Canada under their new Prime Minister, given our similar economic and political backgrounds (if not geography) and current situation on steel and aluminium tariffs. Canada has also had its issues with Beijing as well as Washington.

So forget the tyranny of distance, and May the Moose be with you.

Professor Tim Harcourt is the Chief Economist of IPPG at University of Technology Sydney (UTS) and host of The Airport Economist on Ticker.

Tim is also former chief economist of the Australian Trade Commission (AUSTRADE), the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

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Australia’s million-dollar suburb boom: The next hotspots for investors

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Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, many of Australia’s property markets have experienced some extraordinary price growth.

Many locations, both city-based and regional, achieved unprecedented price increases with median house and unit prices soaring as demand hit new highs. Where once a million-dollar house or unit median was unusual, that recent growth has launched many locations into that club for the first time.

As of January 2025, there were 1,194 suburbs or towns with a median house price or median unit price of $1 million or more – 50 more than in September 2024.

These figures show that although price growth may have eased in some locations in the past six months, the number of million-dollar markets continues to increase throughout Australia.

And there are still plenty of opportunities for investors to find markets that are set to tip over into million-dollar markets in 2025.

The latest Hotspotting and Propertybuyer, National Million Dollar Hotspots report shows there are plenty of markets teetering on the edge of a million-dollar median.

They are the markets where price growth has been steady in recent years and demand remains strong. ith that trajectory set to continue, these markets will soon breach the million-dollar barrier.

They are also strong markets for investors, where rents have been rising, yields are solid and vacancy rates are low.

Residential properties line the Sydney suburb of Birchgrove in Australia.

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Million-dollar median

There is a distinct lure to investing in a suburb with a million-dollar median and it’s not just the prestige of the price tag. The magic of buying in a million-dollar suburb is its capital growth potential.

By reaching a million-dollar median, it’s already proven to be a desirable location where owner-occupiers and investors are prepared to pay top dollar to secure a piece of the action.

There are plenty of inner-city markets throughout Australia which already have million-dollar medians, but successful investors are those who find locations where prices aren’t just rising, but the fundamentals and amenities are in place to ensure ongoing solid price growth and increasing demand for properties in the suburb.

It’s essential when considering a million-dollar location to invest in that it meets a variety of criteria, not just price point. There needs to be ongoing demand for property and significant amenities to meet community needs, such as public transport, shops, schools and recreation spaces, whether that be beaches, parks or lakes.

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Employment opportunities

Infrastructure spending is also important, as is solid population growth and access to good local employment opportunities. These are factors that will keep buyers returning time and again to these suburbs and increased buyer demand is what will keep prices increasing to $1 million and beyond.

Southport on the Gold Coast is a good example of this. Within less than six months, the median house price in Southport, which was a selection in our October 2024 report, has breached the $1 million median mark.

It had a median house price of around $970,000 in September 2024, which hit $1.04 million in February 2025 – that’s a rise of $70,000 in just five months.

The suburb has achieved 15% median house price growth in the 12 months to February 2025 – and is an example of what can be achieved in the Million Dollar Hotspots.

Terry Ryder is the Managing Director of HotSpotting

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A fractured U.S.-Ukraine alliance signals trouble for the West

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In a scene that could have been scripted in the Kremlin, the Oval Office clash between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has laid bare a troubling fracture in U.S. foreign policy—one that Russian President Vladimir Putin is all too eager to exploit. 

What unfolded last week was not merely a diplomatic misstep but a stark illustration of how domestic bravado and miscalculation can undermine America’s standing on the world stage, tilting the balance of power toward Moscow at a pivotal moment.

The meeting, initially framed as a chance to solidify U.S.-Ukrainian ties through a potential minerals deal, devolved into a public reprimand of Zelensky, orchestrated with alarming precision by Vice President JD Vance and endorsed by Trump.

Vance’s remarks – dismissing Ukraine’s war effort and deriding diplomatic outreach as “propaganda” – set the stage for Trump to send Zelensky packing, empty-handed and humiliated. The fallout is a geopolitical gift to Putin, who now watches as the United States risks squandering its leverage in a conflict that tests the resilience of the Western alliance.

Bruised egos

This episode is more than a tale of bruised egos; it is a warning of the broader unraveling of U.S. – Russia relations at a time when strategic clarity is paramount. For decades, the United States has positioned itself as a bulwark against Russian expansionism, a role that has demanded both resolve and finesse.

Ukraine, locked in a brutal struggle for survival since Russia’s 2022 invasion, has been the frontline of that effort – a democratic nation fighting not just for itself but for the principle that borders cannot be redrawn by force.

Yet, in one ill-fated meeting, the Trump administration signaled a retreat from that commitment, handing Putin a propaganda coup and a tactical advantage.

The implications ripple far beyond Kyiv. Putin’s ambitions have never been confined to Ukraine; they extend to reasserting Russian dominance over its former sphere of influence and weakening NATO’s cohesion. A faltering U.S. commitment to Ukraine emboldens the Kremlin to press its advantage, not only on the battlefield but in the broader contest for global influence.

Staggering losses

With Russia’s incremental gains in eastern Ukraine and its willingness to endure staggering losses, Putin has wagered that time is on his side – a bet that Friday’s debacle only reinforces.

The administration’s defenders might argue that Trump seeks to disentangle the United States from a costly foreign conflict, a sentiment that resonates with a war-weary American public. But the reality of great power rivalry offers no such luxury.

Putin does not view negotiations as a path to compromise but as a tool to consolidate gains. The notion that he can be strong-armed into a settlement overlooks his track record of patience and ruthlessness.

By alienating Ukraine, Trump has not simplified the chessboard – he has ceded key pieces to his adversary.

Ahron Young is Ticker’s Founder and Managing Editor.

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First Vegas, then the world? Why the NRL is eyeing international markets

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This weekend, Australia’s National Rugby League (NRL) continues to trumpet its now annual pilgrimage to open its season in Las Vegas.

While it’s only the second year of a five-year arrangement, the NRL claims its Vegas experiment has been a great success at a time when the league has been in excellent health on and off the field.

But why is the Australian league hosting games in Las Vegas? And has this experiment paid dividends?

The NRL has made the bold decision to play games at Las Vegas.

The NRL’s Vegas play

There are a few reasons behind the NRL’s Vegas venture, with money at the heart of it.

It’s partly about future TV revenue and trying to grab a slice of the US sports gambling market.

And then there’s sponsors – it’s allowed the NRL to fish in the larger US pond in terms of corporate involvement in the game.

According to NRL CEO Andrew Abdo:

Outside of the benefit we get here domestically, in America we’ve now got sponsors that are incremental. We would not have had these sponsors had we not been growing in America. We’ve got a successful travel experience for fans, and we’ve got incremental subscriptions on Watch NRL, so you’ve got real revenue coming in which allows to us to now invest in expansion, and invest in a better product here.

The move is also part of a grand vision to grow the game internationally.

The NRL has announced a team from Papua New Guinea will join the league in 2028. It is also aiming for more integration with the Super League in England, perhaps one day eyeing franchises in the US and the Pacific.

The NRL is also conscious of the US National Football League’s venture into Melbourne in 2026 and the competition that could bring for Pacific talent.

There may also be some football diplomacy at play. For example, some Sharks players visited the Los Angles firefighters who fought the recent wildfires for some lessons on leadership and crisis management.

What happened last year?

The Vegas venture started a year ago with the Sydney Roosters playing the Brisbane Broncos and the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles playing the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a groundbreaking double-header.

These matches were the first NRL regular season games held outside Australia and New Zealand.

The crowd at Allegiant Stadium, which holds 65,000 fans, surpassed all expectations, with 40,746 turning up when about 25,000 were expected.

According to Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, more than 14,000 fans flew from Australia for the games and many Aussie expats living in the US also made the trip.

In terms of TV audiences in Australia, the experiment was a big hit.

The Manly-South Sydney clash was the most-watched NRL game ever on Fox Sports, with 838,000 fans tuning in. The Roosters-Broncos contest drew a Fox Sports audience of 786,000.

According to NRL chairman Peter V’Landys:

There was a lot of success in Vegas last year that we didn’t even plan, and for me that was record viewership in Australia and […] record attendances at pubs and clubs.

Stateside reaction

Of course a lot of Aussies tuned in, but how about US viewers?

Around 61,000 tuned into Manly-South Sydney while 44,000 watched the Roosters and Broncos, which is well below the threshold of 100,000 viewers for profitable sports broadcasting, according to TV ratings experts Sports Media Watch in the US.

The NRL set up fan zones and other activities in the build-up to the games in Las Vegas to attract US fans and entertain the visting Aussie tourists.

This year there will be even more on offer: there are four games instead of two, with the NRL bringing over the Canberra Raiders and the New Zealand Warriors, and reigning four-time premiers the Penrith Panthers and the Cronulla Sharks.

In addition, there’s an English Super League game, with the Wigan Warriors taking on Warrington Wolves, as well as an Australia-England women’s Test match.

Is it worth it?

So, has it been worth all the expense for the NRL?

According to V’Landys, the competition’s bottom line has been largely unaffected despite the significant costs of the games:

This year there’s a possibility that we’ll actually return a profit on Vegas and if not, it’ll be a small loss.

But he’s not leaving anything to chance. In fact, in a televised plea on US TV show Fox and Friends, V’Landys invited President Donald Trump to attend the game.

Will the president attend? Unlike a major US event like the Superbowl, where Trump was the first sitting president to attend, there’s not a big domestic constituency for rugby league, so chances are he won’t join the revelry in Vegas.

But it sounds like the NRL, on current projections, won’t need him.

With the introduction of a new team in PNG in 2028 and a possible 19th outfit in Perth soon after, the NRL has showcased an impressive vision to take the game into new markets.

Even if a tiny proportion of the US market jumps on board rugby league, it can only help take the game closer to to its goal of being the undisputed number one sport in Australia.

Tim Harcourt is the Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney, and hosts the Airport Economist channel on Ticker.

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