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Election Diary: The election’s first debate was disaster-free but passion-free too

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The election’s first debate, on Sky News on Tuesday night, was disappointingly dull. Viewers who’d been following the campaign would have learned little. There was minimal spontaneity.

Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

Among the 100 undecided voters in the room, 44 said Anthony Albanese won, 35 thought Peter Dutton came out ahead and 21 were undecided.

Both camps will be satisfied, because each leader’s main aim was to avoid disaster. A bad mistake, an undisciplined moment, can sour the following day.

The Liberals will be especially relieved. After difficult days for Dutton, with Trump wading into the campaign and the fiasco over the work-from-home policy, the opposition leader needed to perform creditably. He did that, with commentators scoring the result variously (in some cases in line with the scorer’s political leaning).

Dutton was under added pressure – just before the two men faced off he learned his father Bruce had been taken to hospital.

Both leaders were well prepared, and carefully polite. Questions canvassed the “Trump pandemic”, education, health, cost of living, immigration, Albanese’s tax cuts, Dutton’s fuel excise promise, and Gaza.

When moderator Kieran Gilbert asked audience members to raise their hands if they were “doing it pretty tough” about half did so.

Albanese seemed to have more material to work with, and made sure he homed in on Dutton’s nuclear policy and his time as health minister.

Naturally, we saw Albanese’s well-worn Medicare card again.

The PM dodged an awkward reference to NSW premier Chris Minns’ returning public servants to the office, pivoting to Dutton’s dumping his working from home policy. “Peter hasn’t been able to stand up for his own policy, so I don’t know how he can stand up for Australia.”

Albanese had a good zinger countering Dutton’s spiel on gas: “The only gas policy that the Coalition have is the gaslighting of the Australia public.”

Dutton had a cut-through point on the PM’s promise to subsidise solar batteries. “He’s asking you to provide a subsidy or to support a subsidy for people on higher incomes like me to buy a battery at a subsidised price and I don’t believe that’s fair.”

Rather bizarrely, the Coalition used the cover of the debate to release its delayed modelling for its gas reservation policy, sending it out just as the debate started, embargoed until its finish.

“Modelling conducted by Frontier Economics has concluded that the Coalition’s National Gas Plan will see a 23% reduction in wholesale gas prices,” the statement said. This would “progressively mean

  • 15% reduction in retail gas bills for industrial customers
  • 7% reduction in retail gas bills for residential customers
  • 8% reduction in wholesale electricity prices
  • 3% reduction in residential electricity prices.”

And do the debates matter anyway?

Australian election debates are punctuation points in the campaign. They don’t necessarily carry much weight, although they can affect a candidate’s immediate momentum.

Ian McAllister, director of the ANU’s Australian Election Study, says fewer and fewer people are watching these debates. In 1993, about seven in ten voters watched; in 2022 only a third did.

McAllister also says our debates are low grade compared to some overseas. For example, in France, the two candidates sit across from each other, with two moderators and “go for it”. In Australia, debates are “stylised” and the candidates rely heavily on prepared answers.

Winning or losing the debates is not necessarily a guide to the election result. As the table shows John Howard performed better in elections than in debates.

NSW Premier Minns defends a back-to-the-office policy

Peter Dutton took a serious fall over his now-abandoned plan to force Canberra public servants back to the office. But Chris Minns already has many state bureaucrats back at their desks, and on Tuesday declared firmly he won’t be for turning.

The Minns policy, announced last year, admittedly has had a bumpy start, including problems with the unions. But Minns’ “sell” is very different from the Coalition’s unsuccessful attempt.

The federal opposition, which often seems obsessed with Canberra public servants, left the impression these bureaucrats working from home were ripping off the system and needed to be brought into line.

Contrast the positive spin from Minns on Tuesday. After noting most NSW public servants can’t work from home – they’re on the front line – for the rest: “We believe it’s the only way of mentoring the next generation of people, to come through offices and ensure that they’ve got good modelled behaviour, a sense of shared mission and an idea of where they’re going collectively together.

“In order for us to fulfil the mission of government and public service, it means that you’ve got to build a team culture. And that can really only be done in the workplace.

“I think our policy is different to Peter Dutton’s, but I just don’t want to mince words. We’ve got to be clear and consistent and we’re not changing our policy.

“I don’t want any ambiguity about our position. We made that call last year. It was the right decision. And in terms of the mentoring role that a senior person plays in a workplace, whether they’re a manager or not, if they’ve got years under their belt and they’ve got experience, it’s amazing the positive impact they will have on a junior recruit that we’ve just got into the public service and that doesn’t happen on zoom and it doesn’t happen on YouTube and it doesn’t happen over the phone.”

Minns has consistently proved himself a strong communicator. He often ran rings around Anthony Albanese in responding to the antisemitism crisis.

Jim Chalmers does the rounds on the tariff crisis

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is making the most of incumbency in the wake of the Trump tariff upheaval, undertaking an intense round of official activity.

Chalmers will convene a meeting on Wednesday of the Council of Financial Regulators to discuss the impact globally and locally. Those attending will include the heads of the Reserve Bank, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, Treasury and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

He will also meet the heads of the Future Fund and the ASX. On Thursday, he will have talks with major employers.

Chalmers has already convened and attended a Treasury briefing for the prime minister. He has talked with Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock, and been in touch with the CEOs of the major banks and superannuation funds representatives.

Chalmers is due to debate shadow treasurer Angus Taylor on Wednesday evening.

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Politics

Macron’s Prime Minister resigns after just one month

Macron’s latest prime minister resigns after just a month amid growing fiscal challenges and government instability in France

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Macron’s latest prime minister resigns after just a month amid growing fiscal challenges and government instability in France

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In Short:
– Sébastien Lecornu resigned as Prime Minister after less than a month, the shortest tenure in Fifth Republic history.
– His departure reflects Macron’s ongoing challenges in securing a stable government amid economic difficulties and political division.
Sébastien Lecornu has resigned as France’s Prime Minister after less than a month, marking the briefest tenure in the country’s Fifth Republic.His departure highlights President Emmanuel Macron’s ongoing difficulties in establishing a stable government amid worsening fiscal conditions.

Lecornu, the fourth prime minister to resign under Macron, faced the challenge of addressing a significant budget deficit while managing a divided National Assembly.

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France’s rising borrowing costs reflect its economic troubles. The CAC 40 index dropped by 2%, and the yield on 10-year bonds climbed to 3.6%. Critics, including Jordan Bardella of the National Rally, are calling for the dissolution of the National Assembly, arguing that such action is necessary for stability.

Upcoming elections could further weaken Macron’s legislative power. His earlier decision to dissolve parliament led to fragmentation, with left-wing and far-right parties gaining strength at the expense of Macron’s centrist coalition.

Government Instability

Lecornu was appointed after François Bayrou’s government collapsed. Bayrou faced backlash for proposing cuts to public spending, intensifying fiscal issues. Lecornu aimed to reform the approach of previous administrations but faced opposition from both ends of the political spectrum.

Rather than seeking cooperation, he appointed familiar figures from previous governments, drawing criticism from conservatives and leftists alike. Macron has been hesitant to engage with the leftist coalition that won the most votes in recent elections, complicating efforts to establish a governing majority.


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Newspoll shows divided opinions on rising house prices

Newspoll shows divided opinions on Australian house prices as government support raises expectations for market increase

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Newspoll shows divided opinions on Australian house prices as government support raises expectations for market increase

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In Short:
– Newspoll reveals a divide among Australians on house prices, with 34% wanting increases and 30% preferring stability.
– The Albanese government plans to build 1.2 million homes by 2029 to address housing supply issues.
Newspoll indicates a split among Australians regarding house prices over the next three years. More voters support an increase in home values than those who prefer stability or a decrease.
This comes as expectations rise due to government support aimed at aiding first-home buyers.The survey, conducted for The Australian, shows that 34% of respondents want prices to rise, while 30% want them to stay the same and another 30% wish for a decrease. A notable 6% had no preference.

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Divisions among the population are evident, especially between those with mortgages and renters. The Albanese government aims to address housing by pledging to build 1.2 million homes by 2029, but opinions on property prices are divided.

Most respondents aged 18-34 are in favour of dropping house prices, contrasting with older demographics more supportive of value increases. Rental households predominantly desire lower prices, in stark contrast to homeowners. Support for rising prices is stronger among Coalition voters and those who support independents.

Government Response

Prime Minister Albanese noted the government’s expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme aims to ease access for first-home buyers. He highlighted the scheme’s minimal impact on price increases, despite a slight projected rise.

Albanese addressed housing supply challenges mentioned by Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock, stating that building takes time. He underscored ongoing efforts to boost housing stock through initiatives, including the Build to Rent scheme and renovation of unoccupied homes.


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Takaichi aims for Japan’s first female prime minister

Sanae Takaichi breaks barriers to lead Japan’s ruling party, poised to become the first female prime minister

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Sanae Takaichi breaks barriers to lead Japan’s ruling party, poised to become the first female prime minister

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In Short:
– Sanae Takaichi aims to become Japan’s first female prime minister, leading the ruling party amidst conservative policies.
– Her nationalistic views and opposition to same-sex marriage could alienate voters and challenge her leadership.
Sanae Takaichi emerged victorious in the male-dominated race to lead Japan’s ruling party, positioning herself to potentially become the country’s first female prime minister.
Takaichi’s conservative stance and fiscal policies have raised concerns among investors regarding her plans for an expansionist fiscal agenda.
Despite her background as a heavy metal fan, her nationalistic views may provoke tensions with China.Banner

With previous leadership attempts, Takaichi intends to gain parliamentary approval to replace Shigeru Ishiba. Although she belongs to the largest ruling party, the coalition currently lacks a clear majority following recent election losses.

Hosting a meeting with former President Donald Trump is anticipated as one of her early initiatives.

Takaichi is known for her admiration of Margaret Thatcher, discussing their meeting shortly before Thatcher’s passing in 2013. As a drummer, Takaichi’s personality may resonate with voters, though her nationalistic policies, including potential alterations to Japan’s constitution, could alienate some.

Potential Challenges

While Takaichi advocates for increased gender diversity in her cabinet, her conservative policies may alienate female voters.

She stands against same-sex marriage and the option for separate surnames for married couples, stances not widely supported by the public. Economically, Takaichi promotes ‘Abenomics’, pushing for increased spending amid rising living costs and opposing the Bank of Japan’s interest rate adjustments.


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