Money

Don’t be fooled by Wall St, the U.S. is still heading for recession

Published

3 years ago

August 23, 2023

In financial circles, the adage “being early is being wrong” often holds true.

Over the past two years, as pessimistic economists and market analysts sounded recession alarms, it seemed they might have erred on the side of caution.

As early as April 2022, bearish forecasters began warning of a looming recession and an accompanying stock market downturn. For instance, in an October 2022 Reuters poll, 65% of surveyed economists predicted a recession within the following 12 months. The outlook appeared grim, and a downturn seemed imminent.

The good news

Fast-forward to the present, and the US economy continues to bask in the sun.

Unemployment remains below 4%, inflation is on the decline, consumer spending persists, and the S&P 500, after a robust start to the year, cooled off but still displayed significant gains. Additionally, economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed predict a 1.6% growth in GDP for the third quarter—hardly indicators of an impending recession.

Optimistic economists, embracing the opportunity to say “I told you so,” now believe that the economy is poised for a soft landing—a scenario where inflation decreases without the need for a recessionary shock to the system. Major financial institutions like Bank of America and JPMorgan have revised their forecasts, suggesting that a recession in 2023 is unlikely, if not altogether avoidable.

However, skeptics warn against prematurely declaring victory. Top Wall Street strategists and economists emphasize that there is substantial evidence pointing toward an impending recession, despite current economic stability.

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, cautioned, “To say today that we’re going to have a soft landing is so premature. History tells you that you really can’t make that assessment.”

The Role of Interest Rates

The focal point of economic pivoting lies in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. Higher interest rates, affecting mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and other loans, can limit consumers’ purchasing power and hamper businesses’ borrowing capabilities. In theory, these elevated interest rates can lead to reduced demand and inflation control, as companies lower prices to attract cautious consumers. Conversely, lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity by making borrowing more affordable.

Money

Middle East crisis: Global markets, tech, and supply chains under pressure

Published

18 hours ago

March 4, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Navigating global uncertainty as the Middle East crisis reshapes markets, technology, and supply chains

The ongoing Middle East crisis is sending shockwaves through global markets, driving energy prices higher and intensifying volatility. Investors are facing growing uncertainty as inflationary pressures mount and risk sentiment shifts. Supply chains are under stress, with key trade routes disrupted, forcing businesses worldwide to rethink logistics, procurement, and operational strategies.

The technology sector is feeling the ripple effects as semiconductors, critical components, and AI infrastructure come under pressure. Volatility in tech stocks is rising, while defence and cybersecurity firms are navigating both new risks and opportunities. At the same time, investment in renewable energy and energy tech could accelerate as companies adapt to energy price surges and seek more resilient solutions.

Brad Gastwirth from Circular Technologies joins us to break down what these developments mean for global markets and long-term strategic planning.

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#MiddleEastCrisis #GlobalMarkets #TechIndustry #EnergyPrices #SupplyChain #InvestorAlert #AI #Innovation

Money

Australia’s inflation report and Nvidia earnings impact explained

Australia’s inflation report sparks market shifts, influencing interest rates, the Aussie dollar, and investor sentiment amid Nvidia’s earnings.

Published

7 days ago

February 26, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Australia’s inflation report sparks market shifts, influencing interest rates, the Aussie dollar, and investor sentiment amid Nvidia’s earnings.

Australia’s latest inflation report is creating waves across the market, with questions about interest rates, the strong performance of the Aussie dollar, and the uneven nature of the stock market rally. Investors are watching closely as changes in carry trade risks this month add another layer of complexity.

David Scutt from StoneX discusses what these shifts mean for trading strategies and the broader economic outlook. He provides insight into how underlying factors are shaping investor confidence and market dynamics.

On the tech side, Nvidia’s upcoming earnings are expected to influence AI development and the broader tech sector. Coupled with trends in SaaS and bitcoin price action, these movements are signalling how investor sentiment is evolving in a fast-changing landscape.

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#AustraliaEconomy #InflationReport #AussieDollar #NvidiaEarnings #AIInvesting #StockMarketNews #BitcoinTrends #SaaSInsights

Money

U.S. stocks rally as AMD, Home Depot, and AI software lead gains

U.S. equities rose as AI disruption fears eased, with Home Depot, AMD, and DocuSign driving tech stock gains.

Published

1 week ago

February 25, 2026

Harvey Vargas

U.S. equities rose as AI disruption fears eased, with Home Depot, AMD, and DocuSign driving tech stock gains.

U.S. tech stocks surged as investors’ fears over AI disruption eased. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 9% after Meta announced a multiyear deal to deploy AMD’s graphics processing units for AI data centres. The move highlights growing corporate confidence in AI infrastructure investments.

DocuSign also rose 3% following Anthropic’s confirmation that Claude Cowork can integrate with DocuSign, Google Drive, and Gmail, signalling stronger adoption of AI tools across industries.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF climbed 2% despite remaining over 30% below its 52-week high, showing tech stocks are recovering but still have room to run.

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