Money

Don’t be fooled by Wall St, the U.S. is still heading for recession

Published

2 years ago

August 23, 2023

In financial circles, the adage “being early is being wrong” often holds true.

Over the past two years, as pessimistic economists and market analysts sounded recession alarms, it seemed they might have erred on the side of caution.

As early as April 2022, bearish forecasters began warning of a looming recession and an accompanying stock market downturn. For instance, in an October 2022 Reuters poll, 65% of surveyed economists predicted a recession within the following 12 months. The outlook appeared grim, and a downturn seemed imminent.

The good news

Fast-forward to the present, and the US economy continues to bask in the sun.

Unemployment remains below 4%, inflation is on the decline, consumer spending persists, and the S&P 500, after a robust start to the year, cooled off but still displayed significant gains. Additionally, economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed predict a 1.6% growth in GDP for the third quarter—hardly indicators of an impending recession.

Optimistic economists, embracing the opportunity to say “I told you so,” now believe that the economy is poised for a soft landing—a scenario where inflation decreases without the need for a recessionary shock to the system. Major financial institutions like Bank of America and JPMorgan have revised their forecasts, suggesting that a recession in 2023 is unlikely, if not altogether avoidable.

However, skeptics warn against prematurely declaring victory. Top Wall Street strategists and economists emphasize that there is substantial evidence pointing toward an impending recession, despite current economic stability.

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, cautioned, “To say today that we’re going to have a soft landing is so premature. History tells you that you really can’t make that assessment.”

The Role of Interest Rates

The focal point of economic pivoting lies in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. Higher interest rates, affecting mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and other loans, can limit consumers’ purchasing power and hamper businesses’ borrowing capabilities. In theory, these elevated interest rates can lead to reduced demand and inflation control, as companies lower prices to attract cautious consumers. Conversely, lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity by making borrowing more affordable.

Money

U.S. jobs report, Fed decisions, and Japan’s economic risks explained

January US jobs report sparks uncertainty; analysts debate impact on Federal Reserve policy and market confidence.

Published

15 hours ago

February 12, 2026

Harvey Vargas

January US jobs report sparks uncertainty; analysts debate impact on Federal Reserve policy and market confidence.

The January US jobs report shows a mixed picture for the economy, with payroll revisions and steady unemployment leaving analysts questioning the impact on Federal Reserve policy. We break down what the numbers mean for interest rates and market confidence.

US stock markets could face turbulence as investors digest the latest jobs data. David Scutt from StoneX explains how these figures may influence equities and what the outlook is for global markets.

Meanwhile, developments in Japan and a strengthening yen could spark new macroeconomic risks. From carry trades to unexpected shocks, we explore how these factors ripple across the global economy.

Subscribe to never miss an episode of Ticker – https://www.youtube.com/@weareticker

#USJobsReport #FederalReserve #StockMarket #MacroRisks #JapanEconomy #GlobalMarkets #CurrencyTrading #EconomicUpdate

Money

Alphabet launches $20B bond to fund AI expansion

Alphabet’s $20B bond offering highlights investor confidence in AI growth, enabling funding without shareholder dilution.

Published

2 days ago

February 11, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Alphabet’s $20B bond offering highlights investor confidence in AI growth, enabling funding without shareholder dilution.

Alphabet has launched a record $20 billion bond offering to finance its massive AI infrastructure build-out, signalling strong investor confidence in the company’s growth strategy. The oversubscribed sale shows that investors are betting on Alphabet’s AI potential and long-term returns.

By using debt instead of equity, Alphabet can raise funds without diluting shareholders. The money will support AI research, advanced computing, and other strategic projects, cementing the company’s leadership in the sector.

Brad Gastwirth from Circular Technologies explains how corporate debt is reshaping tech financing and how investors perceive AI-linked bonds. This record issuance could set a trend for other tech companies looking to fund innovation.

Subscribe to never miss an episode of Ticker – https://www.youtube.com/@weareticker

Money

AI tax tool sparks market turmoil for financial firms

Major financial firms’ stocks fell sharply after an AI tax tool launch, raising investor fears of disruption in advisory services.

Published

2 days ago

February 11, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Major financial firms’ stocks fell sharply after an AI tax tool launch, raising investor fears of disruption in advisory services.

Shares of major financial services firms tumbled after the launch of a new AI-powered tax planning tool. LPL Financial dropped nearly 11%, while Charles Schwab and Raymond James Financial fell more than 9%, signalling investor concern over AI disrupting traditional advisory services.

Morgan Stanley also saw a 4% decline as fears grow that AI could replace some of the most profitable offerings of established firms. Earlier this year, the introduction of other AI models already caused turbulence in software stocks, suggesting this could be a broader trend affecting multiple sectors.

The iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers and Securities ETF was down 4% on Tuesday, reflecting the market-wide uncertainty surrounding AI adoption in finance. Investors are closely watching whether AI will complement or cannibalise the industry’s core services.

#AIImpact #WallStreet #FinancialMarkets #InvestingNews #MorganStanley #CharlesSchwab #RaymondJames #FinTech