Money

JPMorgan predicts recession due to Trump’s tariffs

JPMorgan forecasts US recession due to Trump’s tariffs; GDP growth revised down, unemployment expected to rise.

Published

11 months ago

April 5, 2025

Ahron Young

JPMorgan forecasts US recession due to Trump’s tariffs; GDP growth revised down, unemployment expected to rise.

In Short

JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts a US recession in 2025 due to Trump-era tariffs, with GDP growth potentially falling to -0.3% and unemployment rising to 5.3%.

Following these announcements, major financial institutions have lowered growth forecasts, while the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates despite inflation concerns.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has projected that the US economy is likely to enter a recession in 2025 due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

The bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, indicated that real GDP growth could contract by 0.3%, a significant drop from the previously expected growth of 1.3%. This contraction may also lead to decreased hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3%.

Following the announcement of the tariffs, the S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline, resulting in a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value over just two trading sessions.

US imports

Other financial institutions, including Barclays and Citi, have similarly adjusted their projections for US economic growth downward, with Citi estimating growth at only 0.1% for the year. UBS has forecast a more than 20% reduction in US imports in the coming quarters.

Feroli anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates starting in June, reducing the current benchmark rate to between 2.75% and 3%. This decision comes despite a projected rise in inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that there is no urgency to adjust rates amidst strong hiring figures and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%. Investors are expecting significant rate cuts by the end of the year.

Money

Middle East crisis: Global markets, tech, and supply chains under pressure

Published

17 hours ago

March 4, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Navigating global uncertainty as the Middle East crisis reshapes markets, technology, and supply chains

The ongoing Middle East crisis is sending shockwaves through global markets, driving energy prices higher and intensifying volatility. Investors are facing growing uncertainty as inflationary pressures mount and risk sentiment shifts. Supply chains are under stress, with key trade routes disrupted, forcing businesses worldwide to rethink logistics, procurement, and operational strategies.

The technology sector is feeling the ripple effects as semiconductors, critical components, and AI infrastructure come under pressure. Volatility in tech stocks is rising, while defence and cybersecurity firms are navigating both new risks and opportunities. At the same time, investment in renewable energy and energy tech could accelerate as companies adapt to energy price surges and seek more resilient solutions.

Brad Gastwirth from Circular Technologies joins us to break down what these developments mean for global markets and long-term strategic planning.

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#MiddleEastCrisis #GlobalMarkets #TechIndustry #EnergyPrices #SupplyChain #InvestorAlert #AI #Innovation

Money

Australia’s inflation report and Nvidia earnings impact explained

Australia’s inflation report sparks market shifts, influencing interest rates, the Aussie dollar, and investor sentiment amid Nvidia’s earnings.

Published

7 days ago

February 26, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Australia’s inflation report sparks market shifts, influencing interest rates, the Aussie dollar, and investor sentiment amid Nvidia’s earnings.

Australia’s latest inflation report is creating waves across the market, with questions about interest rates, the strong performance of the Aussie dollar, and the uneven nature of the stock market rally. Investors are watching closely as changes in carry trade risks this month add another layer of complexity.

David Scutt from StoneX discusses what these shifts mean for trading strategies and the broader economic outlook. He provides insight into how underlying factors are shaping investor confidence and market dynamics.

On the tech side, Nvidia’s upcoming earnings are expected to influence AI development and the broader tech sector. Coupled with trends in SaaS and bitcoin price action, these movements are signalling how investor sentiment is evolving in a fast-changing landscape.

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#AustraliaEconomy #InflationReport #AussieDollar #NvidiaEarnings #AIInvesting #StockMarketNews #BitcoinTrends #SaaSInsights

Money

U.S. stocks rally as AMD, Home Depot, and AI software lead gains

U.S. equities rose as AI disruption fears eased, with Home Depot, AMD, and DocuSign driving tech stock gains.

Published

1 week ago

February 25, 2026

Harvey Vargas

U.S. equities rose as AI disruption fears eased, with Home Depot, AMD, and DocuSign driving tech stock gains.

U.S. tech stocks surged as investors’ fears over AI disruption eased. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 9% after Meta announced a multiyear deal to deploy AMD’s graphics processing units for AI data centres. The move highlights growing corporate confidence in AI infrastructure investments.

DocuSign also rose 3% following Anthropic’s confirmation that Claude Cowork can integrate with DocuSign, Google Drive, and Gmail, signalling stronger adoption of AI tools across industries.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF climbed 2% despite remaining over 30% below its 52-week high, showing tech stocks are recovering but still have room to run.

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