Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held talks in St. Petersburg, where they discussed the situation in Ukraine.

Putin stated that Ukraine’s counteroffensive “has failed,” to which Lukashenko responded that there was no counteroffensive at all.

The conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing for nearly 17 months, with Ukraine launching a long-anticipated counter-offensive last month. However, their progress has been slow, facing well-entrenched Russian forces controlling a significant portion of their territory.

Despite differing opinions on the success of Ukraine’s efforts, U.S. General Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes the drive is far from a failure but warns that it will be a long, hard, and bloody process.

Poland push

During their meeting, Lukashenko jokingly mentioned that fighters from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, currently training Belarus’s army, were eager to push into NATO member Poland. However, there is no indication that Lukashenko seriously entertained the idea.

Recently, Belarusian defense ministry announced that Wagner fighters were training Belarusian special forces near the Polish border. In response, Poland is deploying additional troops to its border with Belarus, concerned about the presence of the Wagner forces.

The relationship between Russia and Belarus is referred to as the “union state,” with Russia being the dominant player. Lukashenko has proven useful to Putin since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, allowing Russia to use Belarus as a launch pad during the war. He has also allowed Russian forces to train at his military bases and received tactical nuclear weapons from Putin, drawing condemnation from the West.

Despite Lukashenko not committing his small army to join Russia’s war efforts, the risk of a potential attack from Belarusian soil compels Ukraine to protect its northern border. This puts a strain on Ukraine’s forces as they try to intensify their counteroffensive in the eastern and southern regions of the country.

The talks between Putin and Lukashenko aimed to discuss security and other critical issues in detail over the course of two days. Belarus’s role in the ongoing conflict and its collaboration with Russia will continue to have significant implications for the region’s stability and international relations.