Would southeast Asian nations choose the U.S. over China?

A recent survey suggests that more than half of the people in Southeast Asia would favor China over the United States if compelled to make a choice.

• Growing Preference for China: A survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute indicates that over half of Southeast Asians would choose China over the United States, signaling a significant shift in regional preferences.

• Distrust of Beijing: Despite acknowledging China’s economic influence, respondents expressed widespread distrust of Beijing, particularly concerning its potential for economic coercion and military aggression.

• Economic Concerns Prevail: While geopolitical tensions between the US and China persist, the primary concerns for Southeast Asians revolve around economic issues such as unemployment, recession, and climate change, highlighting the region’s focus on economic stability and development.

The State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey, released this week, reveals a significant shift in preferences.

Approximately 50.5 percent of respondents expressed a preference for China, marking an increase of over 11 percentage points compared to the previous year.

This marks the first time that China has been favored over the US in the survey’s history.

China was also identified as the most influential economic power in the region by a majority of respondents, with 59.9 percent choosing it over the US.

Despite recognising China’s economic clout, the survey also highlighted widespread distrust of Beijing, with 67.5 percent of respondents expressing concerns about its growing economic influence.

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Major countries

This sentiment was particularly pronounced in countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, and the Philippines.

Concerns about potential coercion by China, both economically and militarily, were shared by just over half of the respondents, while 45.5 percent expressed a lack of trust in China.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, characterised the survey results as reflective of the complex relationship between Southeast Asian nations and China.

Glaser said that while countries in the region acknowledge China’s growing influence, they also harbor concerns about potential economic coercion and threats to sovereignty.

Ian Chong, a non-resident scholar at Carnegie China, cautioned that the survey results should be interpreted as a snapshot of sentiments during January and February of 2024.

Chong suggested that the shift towards China may be influenced by anti-US sentiment related to geopolitical events, such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Despite geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the economy emerged as the primary concern for respondents. Unemployment and the prospect of recession were cited as the top concerns, followed by climate change and intensifying economic tensions between major powers.

The survey also identified Israel’s war in Gaza as the most pressing geopolitical concern in the region, with significant attention from countries like Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia.

Concerns were raised about the potential for the conflict to fuel religious extremism and undermine international law and order.