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Uncertain times ahead – the changing landscape of global order

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As the world grapples with shifting global dynamics, many are speculating whether the leadership of the world order is transitioning from the United States to China.

But the real threat is actually much worse than that.

A more plausible outcome might be the emergence of growing political disorder and potential anarchy on the global stage.

Countries such as the United States, Japan, and several Western nations are expressing concerns about the possible erosion of the carefully crafted “rules-based world order” that has been in place since the aftermath of World War II.

Growth and prosperity

This international political framework has played a pivotal role in fostering unprecedented economic growth and prosperity, particularly for China, which is now challenging the very order it benefited from.

Several factors contribute to the threat facing the rules-based world order:

1. The Ascendancy of China:

China’s state capitalism model has not only fueled its domestic prosperity but has also allowed the Chinese Communist Party to tighten control over its society.

China has sought to expand its influence globally, most notably through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.

China’s aspirations include securing prominent leadership roles within the United Nations, contradicting earlier hopes that it would evolve into a more open and pluralistic nation.

Claims of China becoming a responsible stakeholder in the world order now seem to be primarily propaganda.

2. U.S. Withdrawal from Global Leadership:

The United States, under the leadership of Donald Trump, initiated a significant shift away from its traditional role as a leader in the global order.

Trump’s decisions included withdrawing from international organizations such as the World Health Organization, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the Iran nuclear deal.

His administration also undermined institutions like NATO and the WTO and strained relationships with key allies.

Blaming China

When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, the U.S. chose to downplay the pandemic’s significance and focus on blaming China, a departure from the nation’s historical commitment to promoting democracy and global cooperation.

3. Western Reluctance to Share Power:

Western nations have been hesitant to allocate adequate representation and influence within the rules-based order to emerging powers. This reluctance undermines the order’s credibility and fairness.

For example, France and the United Kingdom continue to maintain their permanent United Nations Security Council seats, preventing more deserving nations like India and Brazil from obtaining similar positions.

The United States’ refusal to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, an initiative led by China, and its pressure on allies to follow suit is another example of this resistance to accommodate emerging powers.

Despite China’s significant contribution to the global economy (around 18%), its voting share in the International Monetary Fund remains disproportionately low (approximately 6%).

What happens next?

1. Resurgence of the U.S.:

While the U.S. has faced criticism and a loss of global trust in recent years due to events such as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis, President Biden’s administration represents a return to more conventional global leadership.

However, even with a more cooperative approach, achieving satisfactory outcomes for complex global issues remains uncertain.

The possibility of a return to Trump-style leadership or a divided U.S. Congress could cast shadows over the future of the world order.

2. China’s Role:

China’s ascent to global leadership is challenged by domestic economic issues, international concerns about its coercive behavior, and limited diplomatic friendships.

Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative have faced obstacles and criticism.

China’s actions have the potential to undermine its own rise on the global stage.

3. Managing Complexities:

In today’s geopolitical landscape, finding definitive solutions to global challenges is increasingly elusive. Instead, the best approach may be to “manage” these issues to maintain a semblance of stability.

Achieving a balance of power between liberal and illiberal forces will be crucial for maintaining order.

However, this task is complicated in a world where conflicts can manifest through various means, including cyberattacks, economic pressures, and information warfare.

Ahron Young is an award winning journalist who has covered major news events around the world. Ahron is the Managing Editor and Founder of TICKER NEWS.

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Trump’s team accidentally shared war plans with journalist

Trump’s team reviewed accidental disclosure of airstrike plans to journalist via Signal thread, sparking criticism and demands for investigation.

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Trump’s team reviewed accidental disclosure of airstrike plans to journalist via Signal thread, sparking criticism and demands for investigation.

In Short

The Trump administration is investigating how Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic was mistakenly added to a group chat about U.S. airstrike plans in Yemen. The incident has drawn widespread criticism from both Democrats and Republicans for mishandling classified information and raised serious national security concerns.

The Trump administration is currently reviewing how Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, was inadvertently added to a Signal group chat discussing U.S. airstrike plans against Houthi militants in Yemen.

The National Security Council confirmed the authenticity of the message thread and announced an investigation into how Goldberg’s number was included. Goldberg initially expressed skepticism about the texts and considered the possibility of disinformation campaigns.

He received messages from high-ranking officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, later sharing some exchanges and screenshots in his article.

Left the group

Goldberg noted that he left the group after concluding the conversation was genuine. Within the discussion, a user identified as “JD Vance” raised concerns about the airstrike plans and their broader implications.

Following the article’s publication, Democratic lawmakers condemned the incident, calling it a serious national security breach. Criticism extended to the transmission of classified information through unsecured channels, with demands for investigations.

Even some Republicans criticized the administration’s handling of classified information. Amidst this, Trump stated he was unaware of the situation when questioned. The unfolding events highlight significant concerns about national security practices within the administration.

Democrats have likened the incident to amateurish behaviour, suggesting the need for tighter safeguards in handling sensitive information moving forward.

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Heathrow Airport could have avoided shutdown despite nearby fire

Heathrow Airport stayed operational post-fire, but faced extensive disruptions and criticism over crisis management and power dependency.

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Heathrow Airport should have stayed operational post-fire, but faced extensive disruptions and criticism over crisis management and power dependency.

In Short

Heathrow Airport could have stayed open despite a nearby electrical substation fire that caused 1,300 flight cancellations. Both Heathrow and the UK government have launched investigations, while airline stocks fell due to concerns over financial impacts.

Heathrow Airport may have remained open on Friday despite a fire at a nearby electrical substation, according to Britain’s National Grid.

The London airport had previously closed due to the fire affecting its power supply. National Grid’s CEO, John Pettigrew, stated that although one substation was damaged, two others provided sufficient power to ensure operations could continue.

Heathrow officials, however, argued that a safe restart of operations was not feasible after such a major disruption. They emphasised the complexity of the airport’s systems, which required careful management during the downtime.

Alternative options

Heathrow’s CEO, Thomas Woldbye, highlighted that while alternative substations existed, switching them on was time-consuming. He pointed out that the fire occurred outside of Heathrow’s control and required significant response efforts from the airport.

An internal investigation has been initiated by Heathrow, with the UK government also planning a separate inquiry into the incident. The disruption caused around 1,300 flight cancellations or diversions, leading to substantial financial implications for airlines.

In the aftermath, airline stocks faced a decline in value, reflecting investor concerns about the incident’s impact on travel and revenue. The International Air Transport Association criticized Heathrow’s emergency response, questioning the airport’s reliance on a single power source.

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Trump’s trade war may impact Australian medicine prices

Trump’s trade war could raise Australian medicine costs and limit availability, complicating PBS negotiations and tariff impacts.

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Trump’s trade war could raise Australian medicine costs and limit availability, complicating PBS negotiations and tariff impacts.

In Short

Concerns arise in Australia over a US-Australia trade dispute affecting medicine costs and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Potential US tariffs could raise drug prices and impact access, despite the US arguing for higher prices to reflect drug development costs.

Talks of a trade dispute between the US and Australia regarding medicine costs have raised concerns among Australians.

The potential impact on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and tariffs on Australian drugs entering the US raises questions about drug prices and availability.

The PBS offers subsidised medicines, maintaining low out-of-pocket costs for consumers. Drug companies must submit evidence to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC), which assesses the cost-effectiveness of drugs.

Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs could prompt a rise in medicine prices or lead to shortages. Price negotiations occur between the government and drug companies, with consumers paying a fixed co-payment regardless of the drug’s cost to the government.

The US argues the PBS undervalues innovative drugs, seeking higher prices that reflect development costs. However, the PBAC aims to keep prices low, benefiting consumers.

Tariffs on Australian pharmaceuticals exported to the US could hike prices and reduce demand for Australian-made drugs, although most medicines in Australia are sourced overseas.

Even if Australia retaliated with tariffs on US pharmaceuticals, it would likely harm access to innovative drugs and lead to increased negotiation restrictions.

While the trade negotiations’ outcome remains uncertain, it is unlikely the US can significantly influence Australian pharmaceutical pricing, especially with anticipated reductions in consumer drug costs.

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