Trump’s economic goals risk higher prices, interest rates, lower stock prices, and a weaker dollar, impacting consumers and investors.

In Short

Trump’s economic goals aim to reduce the trade deficit, potentially harming the U.S. economy by decreasing capital inflows.

The shift may lead to reduced consumer spending, higher prices, and increased interest rates, with uncertain impacts on manufacturing and investment.

Trump’s economic goals centre on reducing the trade deficit, but this could lead to significant consequences for the U.S. economy.

The balance of payments requires a corresponding inflow of capital to offset trade deficits. Historically, foreign investment in American assets has supported this balance. However, Trump’s approach risks disrupting this dynamic, leading to diminished capital inflows.

Decreasing the goods deficit can occur in two ways. First, by sacrificing services, which could hurt sectors like Wall Street to strengthen manufacturing. Second, a reduced overall trade deficit means less foreign capital, necessitating more domestic savings.

Foreign savings

This shift towards savings will lead to reduced consumer spending. The reliance on foreign savings allowed higher consumption, but the new focus favors workers rather than consumers.

Market reactions could include increased prices and decreased product variety due to tariffs, regarded as the largest tax rise in decades. Higher interest rates may follow as diminished foreign capital necessitates domestic investment in Treasuries, impacting share prices.

Additionally, a weaker dollar could result if the U.S. economy weakens, affecting foreign investment. Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence may further undermine confidence in the dollar.

While a reduction in deficits through increased exports is theoretically possible, it remains uncertain if other economies will prioritise American products. The likelihood of significant manufacturing returns to the U.S. seems slim, suggesting that both investors and consumers could face challenges ahead.