As the nation gears up for the first Republican primary debate, former President Donald Trump stands unshaken in his pursuit of the GOP nomination.
With a commanding 40-point lead in the polls, even the weight of 91 criminal charges against him has failed to erode his support among Republican voters.
Unless an unexpected comeback by a rival or unforeseen circumstances intervenes, Trump appears poised to secure the Republican presidential nomination in the upcoming July convention, setting the stage for a possible 2024 rematch of the 2020 election.
Even following Trump’s recent indictment in Georgia, his fourth to date, the anticipated 2024 general election matchup remains a tight race. Both Trump and President Joe Biden face considerable negativity from their respective opposing parties and independents.
Biden’s lead
In the latest national polling averages by RealClearPolitics, Biden clings to a mere half-point lead over Trump, suggesting that Trump remains a formidable contender for 2024.
These polling results arrive in the face of several adverse indicators for Trump, including a favorability rating plummeting below 40 percent, a majority of Americans expressing reluctance to support him in 2024, his ongoing fixation on unfounded claims of election theft, and the looming possibility of his conviction before November 2024.
President Biden and his advisers perceive their most straightforward path to reelection as transforming the contest into a choice between Biden’s perceived normalcy and competence and Trump’s barrage of falsehoods, grievances, and conspiracy theories.
The Biden campaign is likely to emphasize Trump’s role as an alleged existential threat to democracy, particularly stemming from his actions on January 6, 2021, and his leadership of the controversial MAGA movement.
Ample material
Trump’s impending trial dates leading up to Election Day next year, coupled with his and his loyalists’ ongoing focus on the 2020 election and supposed judicial bias against him, provide ample material for Biden’s team to exploit.
To further sway independents and suburban women concerned about the rightward trajectory of the GOP, the Democratic National Committee and Biden will leverage policy issues such as safeguarding abortion rights and advocating for sensible gun safety laws.
Despite Trump’s lack of a cohesive policy platform, his electoral vulnerabilities, and his argument that the 2020 election was stolen, he retains a credible chance of defeating Biden.
Biden faces his own challenges, with a job approval rating currently at just 41 percent. The specter of age-related concerns continues to hound the president, with a significant 68 percent of Americans considering him too old for another term, compared to 44 percent expressing the same sentiment about Trump.
Bidenomics push
The Biden administration’s “Bidenomics” push has yet to yield substantial results, as only 36 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, according to a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.
The ongoing scrutiny surrounding President Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, remains a thorn in his side. A plea deal on gun and tax charges fell through, leading to the appointment of a special counsel, David Weiss, and the likelihood of the case extending into the new year.
House Republicans’ investigations into Hunter Biden’s business dealings during Joe Biden’s vice presidency persist and may lead to an impeachment inquiry. Additionally, revelations that Biden may have used a pseudonym in emails during his time as vice president have prompted the House Oversight Committee to seek further information.
Although investigations have yet to uncover evidence of President Biden profiting from his influence, an impeachment inquiry could weaken his standing, especially among critical independent and moderate voters.
While Trump’s chances largely depend on whether he can stay on message and make the election a referendum on President Biden, it remains undeniable that President Biden’s vulnerabilities ensure that Trump retains a viable path back to the presidency in 2024.
