The surprising reaction to Aus subs deal

It might seem obvious to let Australia into the nuclear club, but it’s the reaction to the Australian submarine deal that will be surprising.

In the 1970s, the Australian protest movement found its feet. Vietnam, women’s rights and the environment got thousands of people out of their homes, and marching in Australian cities.

By the 1980s, it was nuclear disarmament that drew in the biggest crowds.

More than 250,000 Australians demonstrated for nuclear disarmament yesterday in marches that were bigger than the Vietnam moratorium protests of 1971. About 85,000 people converged on the centre of Melbourne from five points around the city and at the biggest demonstration, in Sydney, more than 100,000 people marched.

the age newspaper, 1984

With the benefit of hindsight, many environmentalists now admit Australia should have gone nuclear in the 1970s. The Lucas Heights nuclear reactor was meant to pave the way. But the vocal minority convinced the majority and scared the politicians. It’s the trouble with democracy.

And besides, at the time, no one was worried about dirty coal fired power stations.

One wonders how the past 10 years of Australian politics would have played out if Australia had settled the coal-to-nuclear question thirty years ago. Kevin Rudd might still be PM!

But here we are. It wasn’t an environmental summit that changed Australia’s stance on nuclear, it was the Chinese.

China’s rise in the region is too big for the Australian government to ignore. Australia has been financially punished by China for daring to stand up against it. China believed that Australia would buckle, and it would send a message to other middle powers in the region: it’s China’s way or no way.

But the announcement that Australia is joining the nuclear club with new nuclear submarines will send shockwaves.

Both to the anti nuclear protestors in Australia, if there any of them left, and to the Chinese embassy.

Make no mistake, this is a big deal, even if the deal is for nuclear powered subs, not nuclear weapons. But like everything in politics these days, what’s announced today is usually the precursor to the big news being announced tomorrow.

Australia has already signed a deal to buy and build its own billion dollar guided missiles.

Defence analysts have been worried about Australia’s capabilities for some time. Despite the arrival of the long overdue F35s, Australia has been historically reliant on the superpower of the day for its defence.

Until the fall of Singapore during the Second World War, Australia looked to the UK. In fact, despite Australia’s federation, the UK still controlled Australia’s foreign policy.

No more relying on the US

When the UK fell over as an empire, the United States came to Australia’s aid, helping to fend off the Japanese, and creating the ANZUS treaty, which has so far seen Australia join pointless wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq merely to curry favour with the Americans.

But something has changed over recent months. When the Australian and British Prime Ministers met with the US President at the G7 summit in June, China’s ears were burning.

So too were the French. Australia bizarrely chose the French to build its new submarines, to replace the ageing and troubled Collins class subs.

Five years ago, Australia was more interested in Aussie jobs than defence capability. China has changed that.

What happens now to Australia’s contract with the French will be telling. Last week the Australian government announced that the French military will have access to Australian bases, so read into that what you will.

The problem is the Americans don’t trust the French, ever since American secrets ended up in the hands of the Soviets during the Cold War.

The current Australian submarine build saw the subs made by the French, but the combat systems built by the Americans. Go figure.

Why the UK?

The other surprising aspect of all this is the UK’s involvement. Why does Australia require permission from the UK to gain access to the nuclear club? And why doesn’t Australia just buy them off the shelf from the Americans?

Today’s announcement is monumental for many reasons. But none more than this. Today is the day Australian governments grew a backbone, and did what needs to be done.