The key details missing from Aus subs announcement

The announcement that Australia is joining the nuclear club the West’s clearest message to China: Don’t provoke a confrontation.

The announcement that the US and UK are allowing Australia access to nuclear technology is a monumental shift in the regional security of the Asia Pacific.

Australia may share a lot with the US, and even share the Union Jack on its flag, but for the last fifty years it’s been kept out of the nuclear club.

But China’s recent actions have changed all that.

China thought it could bully Australia into submission by slamming steep tariffs on Australia’s wine and barley exports. Even though its heavy reliance on Australian iron ore made the whole thing look silly.

But it’s actions have led to an unintended consequence – the US and the UK took notice. And instead of allowing Australia to learn a hard lesson, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden decided to back Australia, and give access to nuclear technology.

The announcement is already making big news in US military circles.

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said the submarines deal was a “bold step” for Australia given the country’s economic dependence on China.

“The Chinese will view this as provocative, and they should,”

james Clapper said on CNN.

Australia will now be forced to spend heavily on its defence force, above the current 2% of GDP. The shadow of Donald Trump lingers long over this announcement.

After all, he spent a great deal of his presidency trying to ween middle powers off the teat of the American defence forces.

Like much of Trump’s presidency, the diagnosis was right, but the medicine was wrong.

It’s taken Joe Biden to make this deal happen, no doubt backed by US hawks.

We now know what Scott Morrison, Joe Biden and Boris Johnson were discussing in their secret meetings at the G7 in June.

Since then, this deal has been negotiated very quickly.

But the devil will be in the detail, and so far, not much has been announced.

Here are the key questions:

1. Australia doesn’t currently have a nuclear industry. Building one quickly will require the assistance of the US and UK. So what happens to the current French submarines that Australia has been spending millions on to turn from a nuclear Barracuda to a diesel Barracuda design.

2. Until now, Australians have been historically against the idea of nuclear, for safety and environmental reasons. Those concerns won’t just disappear, and the democratic process will play a key role.

3. Where will the subs be stationed when in dry dock? And what will be the community reaction? Will they be on Aboriginal land? Will they be near population centres? Will South Australia still want to be the home of our subs fleet?

4. While the US President stressed that Australia will have nuclear submarines, they won’t carry nuclear weapons. They will instead be nuclear subs with conventional weapons. This won’t be Trident.

5. It’s a long way off, but worth keeping in mind. What happens to our nuclear submarines once they reach end of life? As the British have found, they’re extremely difficult to get rid of. You don’t exactly chuck them up on eBay.

6. China has a great rate of submarine operations already., and the capacity to build more quickly. Australia is far behind, and as any military commander knows, the weapons you have at the start of a war, are the weapons you have throughout the war. Particularly if the new Aussie subs require parts from overseas, which they most certainly will.

7. Then there’s the unknown. The cost, the work and the fact that submarine construction is incredibly difficult. Think space design. The idea this will happen quickly is preposterous. It would be much easier for Australia to buy them off the shelf.

They are all questions being asked in military circles. And so far, no answers.