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Sydney leads national housing downturn, prices fall

Sydney leads national housing downturn as prices fall sharply, with Melbourne and smaller capitals also affected by tax changes and interest rates

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Sydney leads national housing downturn as prices fall sharply, with Melbourne and smaller capitals also affected by tax changes and interest rates

In Short:
– Sydney leads national housing downturn with significant declines, particularly in high-end properties.
– Investor confidence is shaky due to policy changes and economic uncertainties affecting housing markets.
Sydney is at the forefront of a national housing downturn as price declines accelerate, particularly in Melbourne, while growth in smaller capitals has moderated.The national median home value fell by 0.4 per cent in June, the largest month-on-month drop since 2022, influenced by Sydney’s 1.2 per cent decline.

Housing price drop

Data from Cotality shows that nearly $50,000, or 3.7 per cent, has been lost from Sydney’s median since its peak in January.

At the current pace, Sydney’s annual growth rate could turn negative by next month, reversing price gains from late 2025.

In Sydney, high-end properties are leading the downturn, with prices in the top quartile dropping 1.7 per cent in June compared to only a 0.3 per cent dip in the lower quartile.

Prior to the May budget, prices were already declining due to three interest rate hikes and inflationary fears linked to global oil prices.

The condition has worsened since the Labor government proposed tax changes eliminating negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions for property investors.

“The national index has been declining for three months now and clearly gradually losing pace before then,” said Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless.

Melbourne’s median home value is currently down 4 per cent from its March 2022 peak, reflecting a failure to surpass post-COVID-19 highs despite last year’s rapid growth.

Market outlook uncertain

Current trends indicate persistent challenges in both Sydney and Melbourne’s housing markets.

Investor confidence remains shaky amidst policy changes and economic pressures.

Future housing market stability will depend on interest rate movements and government interventions.

The overall situation highlights the need for careful monitoring of economic indicators affecting housing prices.



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