The S&P 500 has risen 28% in 2024, poised for consecutive annual gains of over 20%.
Major banks forecast more modest returns for 2025, projecting the index reaching 6500, a 6.7% rise from approximately 6090.
Barclays has a more optimistic target of 6600, with Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expecting 6666 and 7000, respectively.
President-elect Donald Trump’s policies are seen as potentially beneficial for stocks, though high interest rates and geopolitical issues pose risks.
Investors remain cautious about the sustainability of the rally.
Economic conditions
Upcoming inflation data will be crucial for assessing economic conditions before the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in December.
Increasingly, small-cap stocks are joining the rally, with the Russell 2000 index nearing record highs.
More than 220 S&P stocks have hit 52-week highs recently, which indicates broader market strength, making it less susceptible to downturns.
The early market gains were largely driven by major tech stocks, which continue to perform well amid various challenges.
Long-term growth expectations, however, appear dim, with forecasts suggesting limited gains over the next decade.
