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RBA interest rate cut expectations remain cautious ahead of meeting

RBA cuts interest rates to 4.1% but banks predict no further cuts in April despite easing inflation pressures.

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RBA cuts interest rates to 4.1% but banks predict no further cuts in April despite easing inflation pressures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates to 4.1 per cent for the first time since November 2020 in February. However, mortgage holders should not expect consecutive cuts when the board announces its decision today.

Australia’s inflation rate fell to 2.4 per cent in February, with underlying inflation at 2.7 per cent. Economist Stephen Koukoulas highlighted strong reasons for another interest rate cut based on these inflation figures.

Despite this, economic teams from Australia’s Big Four banks predict that rates will remain unchanged. Gareth Aird from CBA pointed out that data has been softer than RBA’s expectations, but not enough to compel a rate cut. Aird noted that further cuts would indicate a significant shift in RBA’s economic outlook in a short time frame.

The banks predict the next quarterly inflation data due on April 30 will be below RBA forecasts, potentially paving the way for a 0.25 per cent cut in May. The unemployment rate is stable at 4.1 per cent, also not prompting an immediate rate change in April.

CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ all expect the cash rate to be held steady at 4.1 per cent today. Looking ahead, CBA and Westpac foresee three total cuts this year, while ANZ anticipates only one.

A mortgage of $600,000 could see monthly repayments reduce by $91 with a 0.25 per cent cut. Experts surveyed largely believe the RBA will maintain the current rate in April. Their next meeting is scheduled for 2:30 pm AEDT today. Further meetings will occur periodically until November.

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Money

Fed cuts rates, signals more potentially ahead

Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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In Short:
– The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point to address job market concerns.
– Officials expect at least two additional rate cuts by year-end amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a quarter-point, addressing concerns about a weakening job market overshadowing inflation worries.
A majority of officials anticipate at least two additional cuts by year-end during the remaining meetings in October and December.Banner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a significant shift in the labour market, highlighting “downside risk” in his statements.

The recent rate cut, supported by 11 of 12 Fed voters, aims to recalibrate an economy facing uncertainties from policy changes and market pressures.

Policy Dynamics

The decision comes amid intense political scrutiny, with President Trump openly criticising Powell’s reluctance to lower rates.

Despite the controversy, Powell asserts that political pressures do not influence Fed operations.

The current benchmark federal-funds rate now sits between 4% and 4.25%, the lowest since 2021, providing some reprieve to consumers and small businesses. Economic forecasts indicate ongoing complexities, including inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on labour dynamics, complicating future policy decisions.


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Fed faces unusual dissent amid leadership uncertainty

Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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In Short:
– This week’s Federal Reserve meeting faces unusual dissent as Chair Powell approaches his term’s end.
– Analysts predict dissent over expected rate cuts due to political pressures from Trump-appointed officials.
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is set to be particularly unusual, with Chair Jerome Powell facing significant disagreements over future policy as he approaches the end of his term in May.Tensions began before the meeting when Fed governor Lisa Cook won a court ruling allowing her to attend, despite opposition from President Trump, who is attempting to remove her.

The situation is further complicated by the recent swearing-in of Trump adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed’s board, following a Senate confirmation.

Analysts believe Powell may encounter dissent on an expected quarter-percentage-point rate cut from both Trump-appointed officials and regional Fed presidents concerned about inflation.

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Potential Dissent

Trump has urged significant rate cuts and for the board to challenge Powell’s decisions.

Some analysts predict dissenting votes from Miran and other Trump appointees in favour of larger cuts. Federal Reserve veterans express concerns that political motivations may undermine the institution’s integrity, with indications that greater dissent could become commonplace.


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RBA plans to ban credit card surcharges in Australia

Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards

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Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards.

In Short:
– The RBA plans to ban surcharges on debit and credit card transactions, supported by consumer group Choice.
– Major banks oppose the ban, warning it could lead to higher card fees and reduced rewards for credit card users.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) intends to implement a ban on surcharges associated with debit and credit card transactions. Consumer advocacy group Choice endorses this initiative, arguing that it is unjust for users of low-cost debit cards to incur similar fees as credit card holders.Banner

The major banks, however, are opposing this reform. They caution that the removal of surcharges could prompt customers to abandon credit cards due to diminished rewards.

A final decision by the RBA is anticipated by December 2025.


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