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Post Market Wrap | RBA says inflation has increased in many parts of the world

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Resilient economy and low unemployment likely to push inflation higher in coming months. 
  • 10-year bond yield hits 6 year high at 2.96 percent.
  • Investors should brace for higher RBA interest rates this year.  

RBA on hold … for now

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its April 5 Board meeting decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 0.1 percent. It has been at this level since November 2020, when the RBA reduced the official rate in anticipation of an economic slump resulting from enforced lockdowns arising from the COVID pandemic.  

The RBA indicated that it is closely monitoring emerging inflationary pressures in determining the timing around an increase to the official cash rate. The RBA noted that supply chain disruption has led to shortages of goods and materials, resulting in higher input costs. The Bank is also cognisant of the inflationary impact of soaring petrol prices. Rising house purchase costs and grocery inflation related to flood damaged crops, are other factors contributing to the rising inflationary outlook. The potential for higher inflation is exacerbated by the tight labour market that may see higher wages, adding further pressure to input costs. The latest ANZ monthly job advertisement survey pointed out that job ads are at a 13 year high. The survey supports the RBA’s forecast that unemployment will fall below 4 percent this year and remain low into next year. The Federal budget papers go further and have forecasted unemployment to remain below 4 percent for the next 3 years. Australia hasn’t experienced this level of unemployment for 48 years! 

The RBA observed in its April 5 statement that periods of low unemployment correlate with an increase in real wages, implying wage increases at a rate above the inflation rate. This prospect has elevated the inflationary concerns shared by the RBA Board.  

The inflation outlook is further complicated by the $8.6 billion cost of living relief package announced in the Federal Budget, at a time when the economy is already performing strongly. The cash injection is aimed at low to middle-income workers, who tend to spend any money received. 

The Australian economy is strong

The RBA’s announcement referred to the strength of the Australian economy following an easing of forced lockdowns introduced at the onset of the Omicron variant. The Bank also stated that household and business balance sheets are strong, and the construction work backlog is supporting employment growth. 

The RBA acknowledged that while inflation is increasing in Australia, it is less than the level in other countries. According to the RBA, underlying inflation in Australia is 2.6 percent, while the headline rate is 3.5 percent. The RBA will publish its revised inflation forecasts in May and has recently stated it expects annual headline inflation to exceed 4 percent in the months ahead. 

The impact of higher interest rates is more readily absorbed by the economy during periods of strong employment and wages growth, than in times of a weakening economy. Moderately higher interest rates at this stage of the economic cycle, should enable economic growth to be sustained at a rate consistent with near full employment, without embedded consumer price inflation, that may generate a wages spiral. This implies that an interest rate rise in the near term should have a less adverse outcome for investment markets and households, than if left until inflation is entrenched within the economy.

A strong domestic economy has given the RBA grounds to respond to an expected acceleration in the rate of inflation in the period ahead. The response will be an increase in interest rates. The question is – when, and by how much?       

Investment Implications 

RBA interest rate policy is determined by underlying inflationary expectations and not the headline inflation rate. Interestingly, the 10-year bond rate is widely considered to be a useful pointer to the direction of future interest rates. This is because bond market participants on both sides of the trade must agree a bond price that reflects the direction and quantum of the interest rate (yield) payable over the duration of the bond. Accordingly, trends in long-dated bond yields represent the real-time collective wisdom of bond market participants, making changes in long-dated bond yields a useful marker that illustrates where interest rates may be headed.    

The Australian Government 10-year bond yield has been steadily rising in recent months. The 10-year bond yield rose to 2.95 percent today, well up from 1.67 percent on 1 January 2022. The message from the Australian bond market is clear -Australian interest rates are set to move higher, on the back of higher inflation. 

The forecast continuing low level of unemployment below 4 percent, strong economic growth forecasts, and emerging signs of inflation, all indicate the need for historically low interest rates no longer exists.

The evidence suggests that the RBA is likely to announce higher interest rates soon. This may occur in June after the RBA’s revised inflation forecasts are announced in May.  

A major implication of higher interest rates for investors is the impact on equity and property valuations. The all-time low interest rate environment has supported equity and property valuations for a lengthy period. 

In response to a changing interest rate environment, now is the time for investors to evaluate their portfolio in terms of withstanding the headwinds likely to accompany a gradually increasing cost of money over the coming 12-18 months.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says

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Brad Elphinstone, Swinburne University of Technology

Over the next decade, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire. The Tesla board recently proposed a US$1 trillion (A$1.5 trillion) compensation plan, if Musk can meet a series of ambitious growth targets.

Australia’s corporate pay packets aren’t quite on that scale. Yet even here, on Friday it was reported departing Virgin chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka will collect nearly $50 million in shares and other cash benefits on her way out the door.

Research from the United States suggests people think the average CEO earns ten times more than the average worker – and would prefer it was closer to only five times more.

In fact, the real gap in the US over the past decade has been estimated to mean CEOs earn a staggering 265 to 300 times more than average US workers.

Australians think CEOs earn seven times more than the average worker and would prefer if it was only three times more.

But the real gap here is also much higher. A long-running study found CEOs of the top 100 Australian companies earned 55 times more last financial year than average workers.

So, how much money is enough?

People have asked this question for thousands of years. The ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle explained the idea of eudaimonia, or a roadmap of “living well”, saying it:

belongs more to those who have cultivated their character and mind to the uttermost, and kept acquisition of external goods within moderate limits, than it does to those who have managed to acquire more external goods than they can possibly use, and are lacking goods of the soul.

Aristotle’s philosophy doesn’t call on us to shun money or wealth entirely, but argues it shouldn’t become life’s sole focus.

Research over recent decades has come to different conclusions on how much money is needed to achieve peak wellbeing.

A US study in 2010 suggested wellbeing maxes out around US$75,000. This figure naturally needs to be increased today to account for inflation – which, if those research findings are still true today, would be closer to US$111,000 in today’s dollars. You’d also need to take into account the cost of living in your area.

Other findings suggest wellbeing may continually increase with growing wealth, but the increase in wellbeing from $1 million to $10 million is likely less than when someone moves from poverty to middle class.

A 2022 experiment studied 200 people from Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya, Australia, Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom who were randomly given US$10,000 (A$15,000 at today’s exchange rate).

It found people in lower income countries “exhibited happiness gains three times larger than those in higher-income countries”, including Australia. But that cash still provided detectable benefits for people with household incomes up to US$123,000 (roughly A$184,000 today).

Remarkably, the people in that experiment (explained from 4:42 minutes into the video below) gave away more than two-thirds of that money to family, friends, strangers and charities.

Valuing time and relationships

Decades of international research have consistently shown materialistic goals – acquiring wealth and possessions for reasons associated with image and status – undermine wellbeing.

This is because materialistic striving is often borne out of low self-esteem or tending to compare oneself negatively to others, and there is always someone else to compare yourself against.

People can get stuck on the “hedonic treadmill”, where they get used to their new level of wealth and the luxuries it provides and then need more to feel happy.

It’s also because the work needed to acquire that wealth can mean less time focusing on hobbies and with loved ones.

Harvard research tracking two generations of men and their children over their lives, going back to 1938, shows deep, meaningful relationships with others are key to mental and physical wellbeing.

American psychologist Abraham Maslow developed a “hierarchy” of people’s “needs” in 1943. This suggested “self-actualisation” – reaching your pinnacle of personal growth – starts by having enough money to cover the basics of food, shelter, and access to the opportunities needed to grow as a person.

In line with this, research has shown “time affluence” (maximising free time by paying people to do things you don’t want to) and “experiential buying” (for example, meals out with loved ones, going on holidays) can support wellbeing by helping people develop new skills, build relationships, and create lifelong memories.

It’s in most of our interests to close the wealth gap

Recent data shows economic inequality in Australia is increasing. This is particularly affecting young Australians, as housing becomes less affordable.

At a broader social level, research from the UK indicates that as inequality increases, social outcomes get worse. These include increased crime, drug and alcohol abuse, obesity as people struggle to afford nutritious food, and reductions in social trust.

What percentage of wealth do you think is owned by the richest 20% of Australians? And in your ideal Australia, how much wealth should the richest 20% own?

The most recent Bureau of Statistics data we have, from 2019-20, showed the richest 20% of Australians owned around 62% of our wealth.

As inequality gets worse, evidence suggests it will lead to social problems that threaten to undermine the wellbeing of the whole community.

The irony is those who pursue extreme wealth and benefit most from this inequality will not necessarily be happier or more fulfilled because of it.The Conversation

Brad Elphinstone, Lecturer in psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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France receives lowest credit rating due to crisis

France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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In Short:
– Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s credit rating to A+, citing political instability and fiscal challenges.
– New Prime Minister Lecornu must secure budget approval amidst rising deficit and potential no-confidence vote.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+, the lowest ever recorded, amid ongoing political and fiscal challenges.
The decision comes shortly after Prime Minister François Bayrou was removed in a vote of no confidence regarding his €44 billion austerity plan.

President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the new prime minister, marking the fifth leadership change in under two years.Banner

Fitch highlighted political instability as a key factor undermining fiscal reforms, with France’s debt now at €3.3 trillion, or 113.9% of GDP.

The budget deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP and is expected to rise, posing challenges ahead.

Political Instability

The new prime minister faces a divided parliament and must secure budget approval by October 7.

The far-left plans a no-confidence vote against Lecornu, complicating further cooperation on legislative reforms, with S&P Global hinting at a potential downgrade.


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Trump moves to fast-track removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook

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The White House is set to fast-track a ruling on firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, just days before the crucial FOMC meeting.

The move comes as markets reel from surging inflation, weak jobless data, and global currency shifts, raising questions about the Fed’s independence and the stability of policy decisions.

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