Nightmare for Labour as Reform UK leads in poll

Reform UK surpasses Labour in polling for first time, with Brexit leader Nigel Farage gaining support amid Conservative decline.

In Short

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has overtaken Labour in a YouGov poll with 25% support, while Labour sits at 24% and the Conservatives at 21%. This shift indicates growing discontent with the government, particularly as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch struggles to regain support.

The poll, conducted among 2,223 adults at the beginning of February, shows Reform UK at 25 percent support, a rise of two points from the previous poll.

Labour has declined by three points to 24 percent, while the Conservative Party has dropped to 21 percent.

While these results are notable, the next general election is not required until August 2029, and Reform’s lead falls within the poll’s margin of error. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows Labour and Reform both at 25 percent, with Conservatives at 22 percent.

This polling data is troubling for the government, particularly after Labour’s dominance in the last election, where they achieved a majority with 33.7 percent of the vote. Reform UK was in third place with 14.3 percent.

The findings also reflect poorly on Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who seeks to restore support following recent losses.

YouGov indicates that 24 percent of those who voted Conservative in July would now choose Reform, with 43 percent of Conservative voters in 2024 favouring a merger between the two parties.