Labor and One Nation neck and neck now

If a federal election were held now, polls indicate a tight race between Labor and One Nation.Support for One Nation increased by two percent after Pauline Hanson’s address at the National Press Club, where she critiqued immigration and called for more support for local workers.

Recent polling from Roy Morgan shows that on a two-party preferred basis, the preference is ALP 51 per cent and One Nation 49 per cent.

Labor’s support decreased by one percent to 27 per cent, while One Nation’s primary support rose to 31.5 per cent.

Coalition support increased slightly to 17.5 per cent and the Greens decreased to 13.5 per cent.

One Nation has now surpassed the Coalition in opposition status, according to the Capital Brief/DemosAU June poll.

Probability analysis predicts Labor could win between 71 to 81 seats, and One Nation between 54 to 63 seats in a similar election scenario.

The Coalition may see their seat count significantly reduced to between four to 11 seats, down from 16 to 28.

DemosAU’s George Hasanakos warned that factors impacting these results could shift voter behaviour ahead of the election.

Despite this, Anthony Albanese remains the preferred prime minister, leading against Angus Taylor and Pauline Hanson.

Support for Ms Hanson’s proposed income splitting measure continues to grow, aiming to ease the financial burden for families.

She believes this scheme could effectively lower taxes for couples filing jointly.

One Nation believes in working with our friends and allies, of course. But we must also protect our sovereignty from international organisations with expansionist agendas, such as the UN. We believe in the enduring relevance of national democracies to the challenges of the… pic.twitter.com/80bJ8JaAlf

— One Nation Australia (@OneNationAus) June 22, 2026

Polling outcomes

Labor’s position could still be impacted by changing voter preferences.

Political analysts remain split on the likely outcomes should trends continue.