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Investors worry about broader Middle East conflict

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Wall Street’s top financiers struck a pessimistic tone about the global economy at a flagship gathering in Saudi Arabia aimed at deal brokering, as a violent conflict between Israel and Hamas that has killed thousands of people unfolds.

The annual event is typically used by attendees to build relationships with some of Saudi Arabia’s biggest companies and its $778-billion sovereign wealth fund, drawn by the promise of deals as the kingdom seeks to wean its economy off oil.

Broader conflict

But an escalation between Islamist group Hamas and Israel into a broader conflict overshadowed the event dubbed “Davos in the Desert”, a nod to the annual gathering of world leaders and corporate bosses in the Swiss Alps.

JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon encouraged Saudi Arabia not to abandon a United States-led initiative for the kingdom to establish official relations with Israel.

“Despite what happened in Israel, I urge you all to keep up that effort,” Dimon told the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh. “It is the only way to get there with some leadership from Saudi Arabia, for the folks of the Middle East.”

Ties on ice

Saudi Arabia is putting U.S.-backed plans to normalise ties with Israel on ice, two sources familiar with Riyadh’s thinking said, signalling a rapid rethinking of its foreign policy.

Geopolitical tensions heightened by the Middle East conflict pose the biggest threat to the world economy, World Bank President Ajay Banga said.

“There is so much going on in the world and geopolitics in the wars that you’re seeing and what just happened recently in Israel and Gaza. At the end of the day, when you put all this together, I think the impact on economic development is even more serious,” Banga said.

Although the globe’s top financiers dwelt little on the conflict, speaking instead about topics such as artificial intelligence, the economic fallout of war combined with record debts created a bleak backdrop.

“There’s no question if these things are not resolved, it probably means more global terrorism, which means more insecurity, which means society is going to be fearful … and … we see contractions in our economies,” BlackRock Chairman and CEO Laurence Fink said.

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US stocks face tests from Tesla, Netflix earnings

US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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In Short:
– Earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix might affect U.S. stock performance next week amid high inflation concerns.
– Increased market volatility arises from U.S.-China trade tensions and fewer S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend.
This coming week, earnings reports from companies including Tesla and Netflix are anticipated to impact U.S. stock performance.
Investors are also awaiting delayed U.S. inflation data, which could test market stability as it remains near record highs.Recent trading activity has shown increased volatility, influenced by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns regarding regional bank credit risks. The CBOE volatility index has seen a rise, indicating increased market uncertainty.

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The S&P 500 entered its fourth year of growth amidst these fluctuations, having previously experienced a period of calm. Experts suggest market risks are intensifying as valuations reach peak levels.

Market Volatility

Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations escalated last week when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs by November 1 over China’s rare-earth export policies. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks to discuss these issues.

Despite these challenges, major stock indexes gained ground over the week, with the S&P 500 up 13.3% year-to-date. However, a noticeable decline in the number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend raises caution among investors about underlying market weaknesses.

The upcoming third-quarter earnings will be closely monitored, especially as the government shutdown halts economic data releases. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, RTX, and IBM are due to report. The delayed U.S. consumer price index is also expected to provide crucial insights ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.


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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent

Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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In Short:
– Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021.
– Economists note a cooling labour market, with fewer job ads and increased participation rate amid rising living costs.
Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5 per cent in September, up from 4.3 per cent in August.It marks the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021.

Economists suggest that the Reserve Bank should consider another interest rate cut next month. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese noted a slowdown in employment demand as the labour market struggles to accommodate job seekers.

The number of officially unemployed rose by 33,900 in September, while the employment count increased by 14,900. The labour force expanded by 48,800 people, resulting in a participation rate rise of 0.1 percentage points to 67 per cent, returning to July levels.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent.

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Labour Market

BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson stated that while the unemployment rate has increased, the labour market is cooling, not collapsing.

He pointed out that the 14,900 jobs added in September were slightly below the average for the past year.

A growing participation rate indicates that rising living costs are prompting more individuals to seek employment. Magnusson said the release confirms a gradual cooling of the labour market that keeps the Reserve Bank on track without necessitating immediate action.

He added that hiring activity is slowing, signalled by a 3.3 per cent drop in job advertisements in September, the largest monthly decrease since February 2024.

Despite this, he does not foresee a rate cut in November.


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Stocks rebound after Trump eases China trade tensions

Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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In Short:
– Stocks rose on Monday after Trump expressed optimism about trade relations with China.
– The Dow Jones gained 621 points, with significant increases in tech stocks and broad market recovery.
Stocks gained ground on Monday, recovering from Friday’s decline after President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding trade relations with China, stating they “will all be fine.”The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 621 points, approximately 70% of its previous loss. The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% increase, nearing a 60% recovery of its earlier drop. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 2.3%, bolstered by rebounds in technology stocks.

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Oracle’s stock surged over 5%, with AMD and Nvidia seeing 1% and 3% increases, respectively. Broadcom’s stock jumped 10% following the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI.

Trump’s comments hinted that he might not impose a significant increase in tariffs on China, which had previously caused market turmoil. Vice President JD Vance similarly indicated a willingness to negotiate with China, while also asserting that the U.S. holds advantages in potential trade discussions.

Broader Recovery

Monday’s trading saw a positive shift with four out of five S&P 500 stocks rising, indicating widespread recovery. Small-cap stocks also made gains, with the Russell 2000 rising over 2.5%.

Market concerns persist, however, with a government shutdown continuing and a major payroll deadline approaching on October 15. Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, are expected this week, potentially impacting market sentiment.


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