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Investors are “dying for good news” in 2024

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As we step into the new year, economists have shared three crucial money tips to help you navigate the financial landscape of 2024 effectively.

 
In these uncertain times, it’s essential to be prepared and make informed decisions.

1. Invest Wisely: The first piece of advice from economists is to invest your money wisely. Diversify your portfolio to spread risk and consider long-term investments. With the right strategy, your investments can grow and provide financial security.

2. Budget and Save: Creating a budget is key to managing your finances. Take a close look at your expenses and find areas where you can cut back. Saving even a small portion of your income each month can add up over time and provide a safety net for unexpected expenses.

3. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on the financial news and economic trends. Being informed about the current state of the economy can help you make better financial decisions. Attend seminars or workshops if necessary to enhance your financial literacy. #featured #2024

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Bitcoin rises as a safe asset during shutdown

Bitcoin reaches near all-time high as investors seek safe havens amid US government shutdown

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Bitcoin reaches near all-time high as investors seek safe havens amid US government shutdown

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In Short:
– Bitcoin nears all-time high amid U.S. government shutdown, trading at $123,685.87 on October 3rd.
– In South Korea, Bitcoin surpassed 170 million KRW, reaching 170.96 million KRW on October 3rd.
Bitcoin has reached near its all-time high during the U.S. government shutdown, establishing itself as a safe asset.
On October 3rd, at the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, Bitcoin traded at $123,685.87, closely approaching the record high of $124,290 set in August. This marks a 1.89% increase in just 24 hours and the first time in two months that Bitcoin has surpassed $123,000.In South Korea, Bitcoin’s value also surged, surpassing 170 million KRW for the first time on the night of October 2nd.

The price climbed to 170.96 million KRW at Bithumb on October 3rd, breaking the previous record of 169.90 million KRW from August 14th.

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The surge in Bitcoin’s price is driven by increased interest in safe-haven assets amid the government shutdown. Since October 1st, 750,000 federal employees have been placed on unpaid leave, leading investors to consider alternative assets.

Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered remarked that the current market situation differs from the 2018-2019 shutdown, as Bitcoin now closely correlates with U.S. government risk.

Bitcoin’s Future

Forecasts suggest Bitcoin’s upward momentum will persist. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could break its all-time high and reach $135,000. JP Morgan analysts foresee a potential rise to $165,000 by year-end.

Historically, October has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, coining the term ‘Uptober’ due to average returns of 20.63% over the last decade. Ethereum is also on the rise, trading around $4,500, contributing to a larger $4.12 trillion cryptocurrency market.


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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

The Reserve Bank kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% at today’s meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the central bank said the monetary policy board

judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious.

This pause follows three cuts earlier this year — in February, May and August, each by 25 basis points — which lowered the cash rate from 4.1% to its current level. Governor Michele Bullock said the bank is watching those previous cuts work through the economy.

Bullock stressed that while inflation has eased from its peak, progress remains uneven, and the bank is not ready to declare victory.

For now, patience is the safer course. The next big test will be the September quarter inflation report, due at the end of October. That release will go a long way to deciding whether cuts resume later this year or slip into 2026. Market pricing, once confident of a November move, now sees the odds as little better than a coin toss.

“By the next meeting in November, we’ll have more data on the labour market and inflation data for the September quarter,” Bullock told a press conference after the meeting.

Why the RBA is waiting

The monthly consumer price index (CPI) for August showed annual inflation rising to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in July. Although this is a 12-month high, much of the increase came from the expiry of electricity rebates — a temporary factor the bank had already anticipated.

Bullock has repeatedly said the Reserve Bank puts more weight on the quarterly “trimmed mean” inflation measure — a point she emphasised most recently before the House of Representatives economics committee. This measure strips out one-off price swings and gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation.

Even so, the monthly figures show the annual trimmed mean edged down from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August. That suggests the underlying trend remains one of gradual disinflation (a slowing in the pace of price increases), despite the lift in the headline rate.

Bullock told reporters:

The monthly data are volatile […] I don’t want to suggest that inflation is running away, but we just need to be a little bit cautious.

Progress is not yet secure. Inflation must stay within the 2–3% target range on a sustained basis before the Reserve Bank can cut with confidence. Moving too early risks undoing hard-won gains and forcing harsher measures later.



Other data reinforce this cautious approach. June quarter economic growth surprised on the upside, showing the economy is more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, unemployment has ticked higher but remains low, pointing to a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

As the statement noted,

private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise […] The housing market is strengthening […] Credit is readily available to both households and businesses.

Together, these signals give the Reserve Bank space to pause rather than rush into easing.

A big shift in expectations

The major banks have also adjusted their forecasts. NAB has ruled out any further move this year, dropping its earlier forecasts for November and February cuts and now expecting the next reduction in May 2026. Westpac still expects a November cut, but acknowledges the timing could slip.

Financial markets have also pared back their bets. Pricing once implied near-certainty of a November cut, but that probability has now fallen to roughly 50-50.

The September quarter consumer price index will be decisive: a softer result could revive expectations of an earlier cut, while a stronger one would reinforce the view that rate cuts will not resume until 2026.

With the economy stronger than forecast and CPI a touch higher, both banks and markets are pushing out the timing of cuts. The Reserve Bank’s message is clear: inflation must show sustained progress before policy can be eased. Until then, the next cut is a matter of when, not if.

Rates around the world

The Reserve Bank is not alone in being cautious. In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered three cuts in 2024, but only made its first cut of 2025 in September. The European Central Bank has reduced rates four times this year, but has kept policy steady since June.

Political tensions, volatile energy prices and fragile global growth all add to the uncertainty, reinforcing the case for patience in Australia.

For households, today’s decision offers no relief. Mortgage repayments remain at an elevated level and consumer spending is weak.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank said it will remain data-driven and responsive to risks:

The Board will be attentive to the data […] focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

For households, that means the wait for relief goes on. The next move is a cut, but today’s decision makes clear it won’t be rushed.The Conversation

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Markets remain strong amid potential government shutdown fears

Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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In Short:
– Major indices are near session highs, with the Dow up 382 points and resilient to shutdown concerns.
– Rising Treasury yields may challenge bullish sentiment, while upcoming economic reports will influence market direction.
Major indices are trading near session highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 382 points, the S&P 500 by 41 points, and the Nasdaq Composite by 100 points.
Investors seem undeterred by the looming government shutdown and new tariff announcements. Despite the challenges, markets appear resilient due to previous experiences with shutdowns.Banner

This coming week, markets should brace for monthly jobs data, assuming no shutdown occurs. Previous initial claims reports have lessened after reaching 263,000 on September 11.

Technical indicators show promise following a retreat to the 20-day SMA. The end of bearish seasonality approaches, coinciding with Q3 earnings season.

Market Perspective

However, rising Treasury yields could pose a challenge for bullish sentiment. The 10-year yield has increased over the past eight trading sessions and may close at a three-week peak.

If it stays below 4.25%, it could support ongoing bullish trends. A notable risk remains the potential negative impact of the jobs report.

Upcoming economic reports include pending home sales, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls, all key to market direction.


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