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Gen Z stand to be the biggest winners from the new $3 million super tax

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Actually, Gen Z stand to be the biggest winners from the new $3 million super tax

Brendan Coates, Grattan Institute and Joey Moloney, Grattan Institute

As debate rages about the federal government’s plan to lift the tax on earnings on superannuation balances over A$3 million, it’s worth revisiting why we offer super tax breaks in the first place, and why they need to be reformed.

Tax breaks on super contributions mean less tax is paid on super savings than other forms of income. These tax breaks cost the federal budget nearly $50 billion in lost revenue each year.

These tax breaks boost the retirement savings of super fund members. They also ensure workers don’t pay punitively high long-term tax rates on their super, since the impact of even low tax rates on savings compounds over time.

But they disproportionately flow to older and wealthier Australians.

Two thirds of the value of super tax breaks benefit the top 20% of income earners, who are already saving enough for their retirement.

Few retirees draw down on their retirement savings as intended, and many are net savers – their super balance continues to grow for decades after they retire.

By 2060, Treasury expects one-third of all withdrawals from super will be via bequests – up from one-fifth today.

Superannuation in Australia was intended to help fund retirements. Instead, it has become a taxpayer-subsidised inheritance scheme.

The tax breaks aren’t just inequitable; they are economically unsound. Generous tax breaks for super savers mean other taxes (such as income and company taxes) must be higher to make up the forgone revenue. That means the burden falls disproportionately on younger taxpayers.

The government should go further

The government’s plan to increase the tax rate on superannuation earnings for balances exceeding $3 million from 15% to 30% is one modest step towards fixing these problems. The tax would only apply to the amount over $3 million, not the entire balance.

This reform will affect only the top 0.5% of super account holders – about 80,000 people – and save more than $2 billion a year in its first full year.

Claims that not indexing the $3 million threshold will result in the tax affecting most younger Australians, or that it will somehow disproportionately affect younger generations, are simply nonsense.

Rather than being the biggest losers from the lack of indexation, younger Australians are the biggest beneficiaries. It means more older, wealthier Australians will shoulder some of the burden of budget repair and an ageing population. Otherwise, younger generations would bear this burden alone.

The facts speak for themselves: a mere 0.5% of Australians have more than $3 million in their super, and 85% of those are aged over 60.

Even in the unlikely scenario where the threshold remains fixed until 2055 – or for ten consecutive parliamentary terms – it would still only affect the top 10% of retiring Australians. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has rightly pointed out that it is unlikely the threshold will never be lifted.

Far from abandoning the proposed $3 million threshold, the government should go further and drop the threshold to $2 million, and only then index it to inflation, saving the budget a further $1 billion a year.

There is no rationale for offering such generous earnings tax breaks on super balances between $2 million and $3 million.

At the very least, if the $3 million threshold is maintained, it should not be indexed until inflation naturally reduces its real value to $2 million, which is estimated to occur around 2040.

Sure, it’s complicated

Levying a higher tax rate on the earnings of large super balances is complicated by the fact existing super earnings taxes are levied at the fund level, not on individual member accounts.

And it’s true that levying a 15% surcharge on the implied earnings of the account over the year (the change in account balance, net of contributions and withdrawals) will impose a tax on unrealised capital gains, or paper profits.

Taxing capital gains as they build up removes incentives to “lock in” investments to hold onto untaxed capital gains, as the Henry Tax Review recognised. But it can create cash flow problems for some self-managed super fund members who hold assets such as business premises or a farm in their fund.

Yet there are seldom easy answers when it comes to tax changes.

Most people with such substantial super balances are retirees who already maintain enough liquid assets to meet the minimum drawdown requirements.

Indeed, self-managed super funds are legally obligated to have investment strategies that ensure liquidity and the ability to meet liabilities.

In any case, the tax does not have to be paid from super. Australians with large super balances typically earn as much income from investments outside super. And the wealthiest 10% of retirees today rely more on income from outside super than income from super.

Good policy is always the art of the compromise

Australia faces the twin challenges of big budget deficits and stagnant productivity. Tax reform will be needed to respond to both.

Good public policy, like politics, always requires some level of compromise.

Super tax breaks should exist only where they support a policy aim. And on balance, trimming unneeded super tax breaks for the wealthiest 0.5% of Australians would make our super system fairer and our budget stronger.

Brendan Coates, Program Director, Housing and Economic Security, Grattan Institute and Joey Moloney, Deputy Program Director, Housing and Economic Security, Grattan Institute

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Wall Street hits record highs on low inflation

Wall Street hits record highs on cool inflation and strong earnings ahead of key Federal Reserve interest rate decision

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Wall Street hits record highs on cool inflation and strong earnings ahead of key Federal Reserve interest rate decision

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In Short:
– U.S. stocks rose to record highs on Friday due to lower inflation and strong corporate earnings.
– Key earnings reports from major companies are expected next week, influencing market trends.
U.S. stocks rose to record highs on Friday due to lower-than-expected inflation data and positive corporate earnings.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved their largest weekly gains since August. The Dow saw its biggest jump from Friday to Friday since June.

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The Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index was slightly cooler than analysts’ predictions, easing concerns about inflation impacts from tariffs. This development suggests a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting.

Ryan Detrick from Carson Group noted the positive inflation news may facilitate forthcoming Fed rate cuts. Despite the ongoing government shutdown affecting data releases, this CPI report provided much-needed clarity.

Earnings reports are continuing, with 143 S&P 500 companies having reported results. Growth expectations for third-quarter earnings have risen to 10.4%. Detrick indicated a strong opening to the earnings season with a significant percentage of companies exceeding expectations.

This coming week, key earnings will be reported from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, alongside industrial companies like Caterpillar and Boeing.

The Dow rose 472.51 points to 47,207.12. The S&P 500 increased by 53.25 points to 6,791.69, while the Nasdaq gained 263.07 points, reaching 23,204.87.

Alphabet gained 2.7% following a deal expansion with Anthropic. Coinbase saw a 9.8% increase from a JPMorgan upgrade. In contrast, Deckers Outdoor’s shares fell 15.2% after lowering sales forecasts.

Market Trends

Advancing stocks on the NYSE outnumbered decliners by 2.18 to 1. The S&P 500 had 34 new highs, with the Nasdaq recording 124.

Trading volume was 19.04 billion shares, lower than the average of the past 20 days.


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US stocks face tests from Tesla, Netflix earnings

US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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In Short:
– Earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix might affect U.S. stock performance next week amid high inflation concerns.
– Increased market volatility arises from U.S.-China trade tensions and fewer S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend.
This coming week, earnings reports from companies including Tesla and Netflix are anticipated to impact U.S. stock performance.
Investors are also awaiting delayed U.S. inflation data, which could test market stability as it remains near record highs.Recent trading activity has shown increased volatility, influenced by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns regarding regional bank credit risks. The CBOE volatility index has seen a rise, indicating increased market uncertainty.

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The S&P 500 entered its fourth year of growth amidst these fluctuations, having previously experienced a period of calm. Experts suggest market risks are intensifying as valuations reach peak levels.

Market Volatility

Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations escalated last week when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs by November 1 over China’s rare-earth export policies. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks to discuss these issues.

Despite these challenges, major stock indexes gained ground over the week, with the S&P 500 up 13.3% year-to-date. However, a noticeable decline in the number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend raises caution among investors about underlying market weaknesses.

The upcoming third-quarter earnings will be closely monitored, especially as the government shutdown halts economic data releases. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, RTX, and IBM are due to report. The delayed U.S. consumer price index is also expected to provide crucial insights ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.


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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent

Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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In Short:
– Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021.
– Economists note a cooling labour market, with fewer job ads and increased participation rate amid rising living costs.
Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5 per cent in September, up from 4.3 per cent in August.It marks the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021.

Economists suggest that the Reserve Bank should consider another interest rate cut next month. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese noted a slowdown in employment demand as the labour market struggles to accommodate job seekers.

The number of officially unemployed rose by 33,900 in September, while the employment count increased by 14,900. The labour force expanded by 48,800 people, resulting in a participation rate rise of 0.1 percentage points to 67 per cent, returning to July levels.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent.

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Labour Market

BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson stated that while the unemployment rate has increased, the labour market is cooling, not collapsing.

He pointed out that the 14,900 jobs added in September were slightly below the average for the past year.

A growing participation rate indicates that rising living costs are prompting more individuals to seek employment. Magnusson said the release confirms a gradual cooling of the labour market that keeps the Reserve Bank on track without necessitating immediate action.

He added that hiring activity is slowing, signalled by a 3.3 per cent drop in job advertisements in September, the largest monthly decrease since February 2024.

Despite this, he does not foresee a rate cut in November.


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