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Federal Reserve meeting tests stock market optimism

Fed meeting next week to assess rate cuts as stocks rebound; inflation data influences expectations for future policy changes.

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Fed meeting next week to assess rate cuts as stocks rebound; inflation data influences expectations for future policy changes.

The Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2025 next week will be crucial for U.S. stocks as investors anticipate potential interest rate cuts.

Stocks declined after the December meeting when the Fed revised its rate cut forecast in response to anticipated inflation.

However, recent monthly data indicating a moderation in underlying inflation has provided relief to Wall Street, leading to a rebound in stocks, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high this week.

The Fed is expected to pause its easing cycle during the monetary policy statement on Wednesday. Investors are keen to understand what conditions might lead the Fed to consider resuming rate cuts.

Recent economic data suggests stability, indicating the Fed may not feel pressured to lower rates further until more favourable inflation figures are reported.

The current benchmark rate is between 4.25% and 4.5% following a decrease of one percentage point last year. The easing cycle was initiated after rate increases successfully reduced inflation from 40-year peaks, though it is still above the target of 2%.

Market expectations suggest around 40 basis points more easing, equating to nearly two cuts, by December.

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Airlines face disruptions that surpass previous Middle East conflicts

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Oil prices surge amid rising Middle East conflict risks

Crude oil surges 7% amid fears of Middle East conflict; Strait of Hormuz disruptions may push Brent over $100.

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Crude oil surges 7% amid fears of Middle East conflict; Strait of Hormuz disruptions may push Brent over $100.

Crude oil prices spiked dramatically as investors react to the growing risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East. U.S. crude surged 7.2 percent, trading near $71.84 a barrel, signalling heightened concern across energy markets.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint, has come under intense scrutiny. Rising war-risk insurance premiums and suspended tanker traffic are already slowing the movement of oil, creating ripple effects in global supply chains.

JPMorgan has warned that prolonged disruptions over three weeks could force Gulf producers to reduce output, potentially pushing Brent crude prices to between $100 and $120 a barrel. Markets are closely watching for developments that could reshape global energy pricing.

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Trump warns of last opportunity to hit Iran as conflict escalates

Trump declares final chance to strike Iran, aiming to dismantle missile systems and prevent nuclear weapons amid U.S. troop losses.

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Trump declares final chance to strike Iran, aiming to dismantle missile systems and prevent nuclear weapons amid U.S. troop losses.

President Trump has declared this is the final opportunity to strike Iran as conflict intensifies across the Middle East, outlining four key military objectives including dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities and targeting its navy.

The U.S. says its mission is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and to halt its alleged support for terrorist groups abroad, signalling a potentially prolonged campaign in the region.

Four U.S. troops have already been killed, with officials warning further casualties are possible as operations continue.

#Trump #Iran #MiddleEast

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