Politics

Election Diary: The election’s first debate was disaster-free but passion-free too

Published

2 weeks ago

April 10, 2025

The Conversation

The election’s first debate, on Sky News on Tuesday night, was disappointingly dull. Viewers who’d been following the campaign would have learned little. There was minimal spontaneity.

Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

Among the 100 undecided voters in the room, 44 said Anthony Albanese won, 35 thought Peter Dutton came out ahead and 21 were undecided.

Both camps will be satisfied, because each leader’s main aim was to avoid disaster. A bad mistake, an undisciplined moment, can sour the following day.

The Liberals will be especially relieved. After difficult days for Dutton, with Trump wading into the campaign and the fiasco over the work-from-home policy, the opposition leader needed to perform creditably. He did that, with commentators scoring the result variously (in some cases in line with the scorer’s political leaning).

Dutton was under added pressure – just before the two men faced off he learned his father Bruce had been taken to hospital.

Both leaders were well prepared, and carefully polite. Questions canvassed the “Trump pandemic”, education, health, cost of living, immigration, Albanese’s tax cuts, Dutton’s fuel excise promise, and Gaza.

When moderator Kieran Gilbert asked audience members to raise their hands if they were “doing it pretty tough” about half did so.

Albanese seemed to have more material to work with, and made sure he homed in on Dutton’s nuclear policy and his time as health minister.

Naturally, we saw Albanese’s well-worn Medicare card again.

The PM dodged an awkward reference to NSW premier Chris Minns’ returning public servants to the office, pivoting to Dutton’s dumping his working from home policy. “Peter hasn’t been able to stand up for his own policy, so I don’t know how he can stand up for Australia.”

Albanese had a good zinger countering Dutton’s spiel on gas: “The only gas policy that the Coalition have is the gaslighting of the Australia public.”

Dutton had a cut-through point on the PM’s promise to subsidise solar batteries. “He’s asking you to provide a subsidy or to support a subsidy for people on higher incomes like me to buy a battery at a subsidised price and I don’t believe that’s fair.”

Rather bizarrely, the Coalition used the cover of the debate to release its delayed modelling for its gas reservation policy, sending it out just as the debate started, embargoed until its finish.

“Modelling conducted by Frontier Economics has concluded that the Coalition’s National Gas Plan will see a 23% reduction in wholesale gas prices,” the statement said. This would “progressively mean

15% reduction in retail gas bills for industrial customers
7% reduction in retail gas bills for residential customers
8% reduction in wholesale electricity prices
3% reduction in residential electricity prices.”

And do the debates matter anyway?

Australian election debates are punctuation points in the campaign. They don’t necessarily carry much weight, although they can affect a candidate’s immediate momentum.

Ian McAllister, director of the ANU’s Australian Election Study, says fewer and fewer people are watching these debates. In 1993, about seven in ten voters watched; in 2022 only a third did.

McAllister also says our debates are low grade compared to some overseas. For example, in France, the two candidates sit across from each other, with two moderators and “go for it”. In Australia, debates are “stylised” and the candidates rely heavily on prepared answers.

Winning or losing the debates is not necessarily a guide to the election result. As the table shows John Howard performed better in elections than in debates.

NSW Premier Minns defends a back-to-the-office policy

Peter Dutton took a serious fall over his now-abandoned plan to force Canberra public servants back to the office. But Chris Minns already has many state bureaucrats back at their desks, and on Tuesday declared firmly he won’t be for turning.

The Minns policy, announced last year, admittedly has had a bumpy start, including problems with the unions. But Minns’ “sell” is very different from the Coalition’s unsuccessful attempt.

The federal opposition, which often seems obsessed with Canberra public servants, left the impression these bureaucrats working from home were ripping off the system and needed to be brought into line.

Contrast the positive spin from Minns on Tuesday. After noting most NSW public servants can’t work from home – they’re on the front line – for the rest: “We believe it’s the only way of mentoring the next generation of people, to come through offices and ensure that they’ve got good modelled behaviour, a sense of shared mission and an idea of where they’re going collectively together.

“In order for us to fulfil the mission of government and public service, it means that you’ve got to build a team culture. And that can really only be done in the workplace.

“I think our policy is different to Peter Dutton’s, but I just don’t want to mince words. We’ve got to be clear and consistent and we’re not changing our policy.

“I don’t want any ambiguity about our position. We made that call last year. It was the right decision. And in terms of the mentoring role that a senior person plays in a workplace, whether they’re a manager or not, if they’ve got years under their belt and they’ve got experience, it’s amazing the positive impact they will have on a junior recruit that we’ve just got into the public service and that doesn’t happen on zoom and it doesn’t happen on YouTube and it doesn’t happen over the phone.”

Minns has consistently proved himself a strong communicator. He often ran rings around Anthony Albanese in responding to the antisemitism crisis.

Jim Chalmers does the rounds on the tariff crisis

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is making the most of incumbency in the wake of the Trump tariff upheaval, undertaking an intense round of official activity.

Chalmers will convene a meeting on Wednesday of the Council of Financial Regulators to discuss the impact globally and locally. Those attending will include the heads of the Reserve Bank, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, Treasury and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

He will also meet the heads of the Future Fund and the ASX. On Thursday, he will have talks with major employers.

Chalmers has already convened and attended a Treasury briefing for the prime minister. He has talked with Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock, and been in touch with the CEOs of the major banks and superannuation funds representatives.

Chalmers is due to debate shadow treasurer Angus Taylor on Wednesday evening.

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Politics

Small business tax cut boosts economy, creates jobs

COSBOA: Small business tax cut could boost Australia’s economy by $11.4 billion and create 3,370 permanent jobs.

Published

1 day ago

April 21, 2025

Ahron Young

COSBOA: Small business tax cut could boost Australia’s economy by $11.4 billion and create 3,370 permanent jobs.

In Short

COSBOA’s economic modelling suggests that reducing the small business tax rate from 25% to 20% could boost the economy by $11.4 billion and create around 3,370 jobs.

CEO Luke Achterstraat urges major parties to adopt this fiscally prudent proposal, which could enhance cash flow, innovation, and overall economic growth for small businesses.

Economic modelling by the Council of Small Business Organisations Australia (COSBOA) indicates a reduction in the small business tax rate from 25% to 20% could enhance the economy by up to $11.4 billion and create approximately 3,370 permanent jobs.

COSBOA’s CEO, Luke Achterstraat, described the tax cut as “fiscally prudent” and beneficial for economic policy, noting it could stimulate cash flow and business growth.

Achterstraat stressed the importance of this proposal for small businesses, emphasising that it would lead to increased economic growth, innovation, and productivity. He explained that the modelling suggested the GDP could rise by $10 for every $1 lost in tax revenue, resulting in significant economic benefits and minimal budget impact.

Adopt the policy

As the 2025 election campaign progresses, Achterstraat called on major parties to consider adopting the policy, highlighting its potential to support small businesses, particularly following challenges from the GFC and Covid-19.

The modelling evaluated three scenarios for tax reduction implementation: an immediate cut in 2025-26, a phased approach to 2027-28, and another to 2029-30. Each scenario showed substantial benefits for small business cash flow, investment, and job creation.

Under the immediate reduction scenario, Australia’s GDP could increase by about $11.4 billion over five years, with net gains of roughly $10 for each $1 of lost revenue. This tax cut could provide essential relief for small businesses, allowing them to focus on their operations and community service.

Politics

Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall

Published

2 days ago

April 20, 2025

The Conversation

Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall; Labor surging in poll of marginal seats

Adrian Beaumont, The University of Melbourne

With less than two weeks to go now until the federal election, the polls continue to favour the government being returned.

Newspoll was steady at 52–48 to Labor, but primary vote changes indicated a gain for Labor as both leaders dropped on net approval. A Redbridge marginal seats poll had Labor gaining two points since the previous week for a 54.5–45.5 lead, a 3.5-point swing to Labor in those seats since the 2022 election.

A national Newspoll, conducted April 14–17 from a sample of 1,263, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged on the April 7–10 Newspoll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all Others (steady).

In the last two Newspolls, Labor has been a little lucky to get a 52–48 lead as this would have been given by 2022 election preference flows, and Newspoll is making a pro-Coalition adjustment to One Nation preferences. This time the 2022 election flow method would give Labor about a 53–47 lead.

This Newspoll is the only new national poll since Friday’s update. The fieldwork dates were nearly the same as for the Freshwater poll that had Labor ahead by just 50.3–49.7 (April 14–16 for Freshwater). Other polls indicate that Freshwater is likely the outlier. Here’s the Labor two-party vote chart.

In-person early voting begins on Tuesday ahead of the May 3 election, so there isn’t much time for the Coalition to turn around their deficit, if the polls are accurate.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll was down five points to -9, with 52% dissatified and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down three points to -22, a record low for him. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 52–36 (49–38 previously). This is Albanese’s biggest lead since May 2024.

Here’s the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are data points and a smoothed line has been fitted.

Albanese and Labor were preferred to Dutton and the Coalition on helping with the cost of living by 31–28. Labor also led on dealing with uncertainty caused by Donald Trump (39–32), lowering taxes (33–26) and helping Australians buy their first home (29–24). The Coalition led on growing our economy by 34–29.

For so long, it had appeared that the cost of living issue would sink Labor at this election, so this result will please Labor.

Labor surges further ahead in Redbridge marginal seats poll

A poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids was conducted April 9–15 from a sample of 1,000. It gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the April 4–9 marginal seats poll. Primary votes were 35% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up two) and 17% for all Others (steady).

The overall 2022 vote in these 20 seats was 51–49 to Labor, so this poll implies a 3.5-point swing to Labor from the 2022 election. If applied to the national 2022 result of 52.1–47.9 to Labor, Labor would lead by about 55.5–44.5. Since the first wave of this marginal seats tracker in early February, Labor has gained 6.5 points.

Albanese’s net favourability improved three points since last week to -5, while Dutton’s slumped six points to -22. By 36–26, voters thought Albanese and Labor had better election promises for them than Dutton and the Coalition.

By 56–13, voters agreed with Labor’s attack line that Dutton’s nuclear plan will cost $600 billion, and he will need to make cuts to pay for it. By 42–16, voters agreed with the Coalition’s attack line that this is the highest spending government in the past 40 years.

Additional Resolve questions and a right-wing poll of Wentworth

I previously covered the April 9–13 Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead. Asked their biggest concerns about voting Labor, 47% said cost of living (down five since February), 36% economic management (down nine), 31% lack of progress in their first term (steady), 27% union ties (up two) and 24% Albanese’s personality (down six).

Asked their biggest concerns about voting for the Coalition, 45% said Dutton’s personality (up ten), 36% lack of policy detail (up eight), 34% that the Coalition would follow Donald Trump’s example (up six), 32% the performance of the Scott Morrison government (up four) and 31% their nuclear power plan (up five).

The February Resolve poll was the 55–45 to Coalition outlier, so responses in the prior survey were probably too Coalition-friendly.

The Poll Bludger reported Saturday that a seat poll of Wentworth, which teal Allegra Spender holds by a 55.9–44.1 margin over the Liberals after a redistribution, gave the Liberals a 47–28 primary vote lead over Spender with 15% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. This poll was taken by the right-wing pollster Compass.

Canadian election and UK local elections

I covered the April 28 Canadian election for The Poll Bludger on Saturday. The centre-left governing Liberals are down slightly since my previous Poll Bludger Canadian article on April 10, but are still likely to win a parliamentary majority. Debates between four party leaders occurred Wednesday (in French) and Thursday (in English), and we’re still waiting for post-debate polls.

United Kingdom local elections and a parliamentary byelection will occur on May 1. Current national polls imply that the far-right Reform will gain massively, with the Conservatives and Labour both slumping. Two seat polls give Reform a narrow lead over Labour for the parliamentary byelection in a safe Labour seat.

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Politics

Trump pushes trade talks with Japan and Europe amid tariff turmoil

Trump engages directly in global trade negotiations, claiming “Big Progress” as tariffs reshape markets, but urgency looms for substantive results amid cautious responses from Japan and the EU.

Published

4 days ago

April 18, 2025

Veronica Dudo

Trump engages directly in global trade negotiations, claiming “Big Progress” as tariffs reshape markets, but urgency looms for substantive results amid cautious responses from Japan and the EU. #Trump #TradeTalks #GlobalEconomy

President Trump is taking a direct role in global trade negotiations as U.S. tariffs reshape global markets. Meeting with leaders from Japan and Italy, Trump claims “Big Progress” on new trade agreements.

But with Japan cautious and the EU pausing retaliation, the pressure is on for meaningful results. How urgent is a deal for the U.S. economy?

Can Trump’s hands-on approach deliver outcomes or cause friction?

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#Trump #TradeTalks #USJapan #Tariffs #GlobalEconomy #Politics #TickerNews #TradeWar