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Election betting odds on Trump are impacting global interest rates

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Betting odds for Former President Donald Trump’s possible re-election is shaking global markets, impacting 10-year yields.

Market sentiment is shifting as higher US interest rates and rising Trump re-election odds unsettle global financial dynamics.

David Scutt from StoneX discusses how Donald Trump’s lead in the presidential betting race is influencing global interest rates, US economic growth, Fed rate cut expectations, and its impact on the Australian dollar and economy.

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Markets surge as Fed hints at July cut

Fed’s Waller hints at July rate cut, boosting investor sentiment; Trump imposes 50% tariff on Brazil, provoking minimal market response.

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Fed’s Waller hints at July rate cut, boosting investor sentiment; Trump imposes 50% tariff on Brazil, provoking minimal market response.


Fed Governor Christopher Waller, tipped as a possible next Chair, signalled a July rate cut is on the table, calling current policy “too tight.” That’s been enough to supercharge investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, Trump has slapped a surprise 50% tariff on Brazil, sparking political tension. Brazil’s President responded with tough talk on “sovereignty,” but markets barely blinked, the Brazilian real dropped just 1%.

#StockMarket #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #AUD #TrumpTariffs #TickerNews

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Trump’s copper tariff shakes global markets

Trump’s 50% copper import tariff aims to strengthen U.S. manufacturing, impacting global supply chains and Chile significantly.

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Trump’s 50% copper import tariff aims to strengthen U.S. manufacturing, impacting global supply chains and Chile significantly.


President Donald Trump has unveiled plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, a move set to rattle global supply chains and redraw the industrial map.

The tariff will hit within weeks, with Chile, the world’s largest copper exporter, expected to bear the brunt.

While Australia’s direct copper trade with the US is limited, analysts say the real message is strategic: the US is reinforcing its domestic manufacturing power.

#CopperTariff #DonaldTrump #TradeWar #GlobalMarkets #TickerNews

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RBA unexpectedly keeps interest rates steady at 3.85%

RBA surprises with decision to maintain interest rates at 3.85%, impacting economic forecasts and housing market activity.

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RBA surprises with decision to maintain interest rates at 3.85%, impacting economic forecasts and housing market activity.

In Short:
The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at 3.85% despite concerns from the Housing Industry Association about its impact on new home construction. Although inflation is within target and there’s some market confidence, households are under financial strain amidst economic uncertainties.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.85% following a split vote of six to three. This unexpected decision comes as the Housing Industry Association warns that these rates remain restrictive, potentially hindering new home building.

Senior economist Tom Devitt stated that the rates will delay necessary building activity but noted improved market confidence following previous rate cuts.

Current inflation data shows the RBA’s preferred measure has been declining and remains within the target range. However, household spending is under strain, with Australia experiencing a per capita recession since mid-2022.

Labour costs

The RBA’s decision was influenced by concerns over productivity growth and high unit labour costs, affecting its inflation outlook. While some economists anticipated a rate cut, the RBA opted for caution due to economic uncertainties, both domestically and internationally.

The bank acknowledged gradual recovery in private demand and household incomes but highlighted ongoing challenges in passing cost increases to final prices.

Despite the hold on rates, price rises in essentials like petrol continue to impact Australian households. The RBA emphasized the need for ongoing assessment before making future rate changes, suggesting a careful approach in response to evolving economic conditions.

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