Adrian Beaumont, The University of Melbourne

United States President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this November.

In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval has dropped 4.1 points since March 5 to -16.9, with 56.5% disapproving and 39.5% approving.

Trump’s net approval is at a record low, below his previous lows of -15.0 in November 2025 and February. It’s also below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump during his first term the closest at -12.8.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -10.7 on immigration, -21.8 on the economy, -24.2 on trade and -33.6 on inflation. The Iran war has caused a slump for Trump recently on the economy, trade and inflation but not immigration.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Net support had fallen to a low of -18.1 on April 4, but has recovered to -15.1 now, with 53.8% opposed to the Iran war while 38.7% support it.

The polls will not have caught up to the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran on Wednesday AEST. But the benchmark US S&P 500 stock market index was up 2.5% in last night’s trading session. Since a low on March 30, the S&P has surged 6.9% and is now only 2.3% below its peak in the week before the Iran war began.

Trump is likely to recover some ground on the stock market surge, particularly if fuel prices fall back. I believe as long as nothing goes badly wrong with the US stock market or the overall US economy, Trump will not become very unpopular.

Democrats have big swing in Georgia

A special election runoff occurred Wednesday AEST in Georgia’s 14th federal seat, and I covered this for The Poll Bludger.

At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, a Republican and a Democrat had qualified. At the 2024 presidential election, Trump had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 37 points in Georgia 14.

While the Republican won by 55.9–44.1, this 12-point Republican margin was a 25-point drop from Trump’s 2024 margin. I also covered a Wisconsin Supreme Court election which the left-wing judge won by 20 points. Wisconsin voted for Trump by 0.9 points in 2024.

This Poll Bludger post covered the results of recent European elections and the upcoming Hungarian election on Sunday and three Canadian byelections on Monday.

Midterm elections in November

At November midterm elections, all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for election. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot polls, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 47.9–42.4, a 5.5-point margin. There has been very little change since January.

If Democrats win the House popular vote by this margin in November, they are very likely to gain control of the House. At 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 and the Senate by 53–47.

There will be 35 seats up for election in the Senate in November (33 regular and two special elections). Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13, but only two Republican seats are thought vulnerable: Maine and North Carolina.

At the 2024 presidential election, Harris won Maine by 6.9 points and Trump only won North Carolina by 2.2 points. Trump won all other states Republicans are defending by at least a double-digit margin. Even if Democrats win nationally by 5.5 points, they would gain only two seats on a uniform swing and Republicans would hold the Senate by 51–49.

It’s become increasingly difficult for Democrats to win the Senate, as the two senators per state rule skews Senate elections towards low-population, rural states.

US unemployment rate is low due to people leaving workforce

The March US unemployment rate was 4.3%, down 0.1% from February. Trump’s first full month in office was February 2025, when the unemployment rate was 4.2%. By this measure, there has hardly been any change in the US jobs situation.

However, the employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Americans that are employed) was down 0.1% from February to 59.2% in March. This measure has dropped 0.5% since December and 0.7% since February 2025 (when it was 59.9%). The unemployment rate only remains low because of people leaving the workforce.

In Australia, the February unemployment rate was 4.3%, the same as in the US. But Australia’s employment population ratio is much higher than the US at 64.0%.

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.