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Why China’s economy is struggling to recover from Covid emergency

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China’s top leaders have acknowledged significant challenges in the nation’s economy as its post-Covid recovery faces obstacles.

Of particular concern is the soaring youth unemployment rate, which reached a record 21.3% in June. Some experts believe the actual rate could be much higher, up to 46.5% in March, when factoring in young people not actively seeking work or relying on their families for support.

The severity of the crisis is evident in the emergence of a new phenomenon called “full-time sons and daughters.” Many young Chinese individuals are paid by their families to stay at home, avoiding the intense competition in the job market and embracing a simpler lifestyle. This trend reflects the struggles they face in securing employment opportunities.

Internationally, there is growing anxiety over China’s economic situation.

While global inflation appears to be slowing, China’s economy is losing momentum, primarily due to sluggish consumer spending. The 24-person Politburo, the highest-ranking officials in the country, convened a meeting and acknowledged the challenges, including insufficient domestic demand, operational difficulties for businesses, and a complex external environment.

To address the economic downturn, the Politburo called for precise and effective macroeconomic regulation, countercyclical policies, and efforts to bolster domestic consumption. The real estate sector, a crucial driver of the Chinese economy, remains in turmoil, with major developers struggling to complete housing projects, leading to protests and mortgage boycotts.

Economic downturn

Despite the disappointing economic data and calls for support measures, the Chinese government has been cautious in its response. The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates, and some assistance was promised to the troubled property sector, but concrete action has been limited. Observers are keenly watching for the policy tone set by top leaders, hoping for indications of significant stimulus measures.

China aims for about five per cent economic growth this year, one of the lowest targets in decades. Achieving this goal will be challenging, as Premier Li Qiang has warned. While some measures have been introduced to promote the purchase of automobiles and boost consumption in artificial intelligence and electronics sectors, a comprehensive stimulus package is yet to be seen.

In conclusion, China’s economy is grappling with serious issues, including soaring youth unemployment and sluggish growth. The government’s response remains cautious, with observers anxiously awaiting any significant policy shifts. The nation’s economic performance will undoubtedly have implications not only for China but also for the global economy.

 

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Fed cuts rates, signals more potentially ahead

Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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In Short:
– The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point to address job market concerns.
– Officials expect at least two additional rate cuts by year-end amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a quarter-point, addressing concerns about a weakening job market overshadowing inflation worries.
A majority of officials anticipate at least two additional cuts by year-end during the remaining meetings in October and December.Banner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a significant shift in the labour market, highlighting “downside risk” in his statements.

The recent rate cut, supported by 11 of 12 Fed voters, aims to recalibrate an economy facing uncertainties from policy changes and market pressures.

Policy Dynamics

The decision comes amid intense political scrutiny, with President Trump openly criticising Powell’s reluctance to lower rates.

Despite the controversy, Powell asserts that political pressures do not influence Fed operations.

The current benchmark federal-funds rate now sits between 4% and 4.25%, the lowest since 2021, providing some reprieve to consumers and small businesses. Economic forecasts indicate ongoing complexities, including inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on labour dynamics, complicating future policy decisions.


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Fed faces unusual dissent amid leadership uncertainty

Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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In Short:
– This week’s Federal Reserve meeting faces unusual dissent as Chair Powell approaches his term’s end.
– Analysts predict dissent over expected rate cuts due to political pressures from Trump-appointed officials.
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is set to be particularly unusual, with Chair Jerome Powell facing significant disagreements over future policy as he approaches the end of his term in May.Tensions began before the meeting when Fed governor Lisa Cook won a court ruling allowing her to attend, despite opposition from President Trump, who is attempting to remove her.

The situation is further complicated by the recent swearing-in of Trump adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed’s board, following a Senate confirmation.

Analysts believe Powell may encounter dissent on an expected quarter-percentage-point rate cut from both Trump-appointed officials and regional Fed presidents concerned about inflation.

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Potential Dissent

Trump has urged significant rate cuts and for the board to challenge Powell’s decisions.

Some analysts predict dissenting votes from Miran and other Trump appointees in favour of larger cuts. Federal Reserve veterans express concerns that political motivations may undermine the institution’s integrity, with indications that greater dissent could become commonplace.


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RBA plans to ban credit card surcharges in Australia

Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards

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Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards.

In Short:
– The RBA plans to ban surcharges on debit and credit card transactions, supported by consumer group Choice.
– Major banks oppose the ban, warning it could lead to higher card fees and reduced rewards for credit card users.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) intends to implement a ban on surcharges associated with debit and credit card transactions. Consumer advocacy group Choice endorses this initiative, arguing that it is unjust for users of low-cost debit cards to incur similar fees as credit card holders.Banner

The major banks, however, are opposing this reform. They caution that the removal of surcharges could prompt customers to abandon credit cards due to diminished rewards.

A final decision by the RBA is anticipated by December 2025.


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