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A finance expert explains the impact of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse

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Silicon Valley Bank biggest US lender to fail since 2008 financial crisis – a finance expert explains the impact

Silicon Valley Bank, which catered to the tech industry for three decades, collapsed on March 10, 2023, after the Santa Clara, California-based lender suffered from an old-fashioned bank run. State regulators seized the bank and made the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation its receiver.

SVB, as it’s known, was the biggest U.S. lender to fail since the 2008 global financial crisis – and the second-biggest ever.

We asked William Chittenden, associate professor of finance at Texas State University, to explain what happened and whether Americans should be worried about the safety of their financial system.

The short answer is that SVB did not have enough cash to pay depositors so the regulators closed the bank.

The longer answer begins during in the pandemic, when SVB and many other banks were raking in more deposits than they could lend out to borrowers. In 2021, deposits at SVB doubled.

But they had to do something with all that money. So, what they could not lend out, they invested in ultra-safe U.S. Treasury securities. The problem is the rapid increase in interest rates in 2022 and 2023 caused the value of these securities to plunge. A characteristic of bonds and similar securities is that when yields or interest rates go up, prices go down, and vice versa.

The bank recently said it took a US$1.8 billion hit on the sale of some of those securities and they were unable to raise capital to offset the loss as their stock began dropping. That prompted prominent venture capital firms to advise the companies they invest in to pull their business from Silicon Valley Bank. This had a snowball effect that led a growing number of SVB depositors to withdraw their money too.

The investment losses, coupled with the withdrawals, were so large that regulators had no choice but to step in to shut the bank down to protect depositors.

Government intervention

From a practical perspective, the FDIC is now running the bank.

It is typical for the FDIC to shut a bank down on a Friday and have the bank reopen the following Monday. In this case, the FDIC has already announced that the bank will reopen on March 13 as the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara.

At the end of 2022, SVB had $175.4 billion in deposits. It’s not clear how much of those deposits remain with the bank and how much of those are insured and 100% safe.

For depositors with $250,000 or less in cash at SVB, the FDIC said that customers will have access to all of their money when the bank reopens.

For those with uninsured deposits at SVB – basically anything above the FDIC limit of $250,000 – they may or may not receive back the rest of their money. These depositors will be given a “Receiver’s Certificate” by the FDIC for the uninsured amount of their deposits. The FDIC has already said it will pay some of the uninsured deposits by next week, with additional payments possible as the regulator liquidates SVB’s assets. But if SVB’s investments have to be sold at a significant loss, uninsured depositors may not get any additional payment.

Prior to the failure of SVB, the most recent bank failures occurred in October 2020, when both Almena State Bank in Kansas and First City Bank of Florida were taken over by the FDIC.

Both of these banks were relatively small – with about $200 million in deposits combined.

Banking failure

SVB was the biggest bank to fail since September 2008, when Washington Mutual failed with $307 billion in assets. WaMu fell in the wake of investment bank Lehman Brothers’ collapse, which nearly took down the global financial system.

On the whole, U.S. bank failures aren’t all that common. For example, there were none in 2021 and 2022.

At the end of 2022, SVB was the 16th-largest bank in the United States with $209 billion in assets.

That sounds like a lot – and it is – but that’s just 0.91% of all banking assets in the U.S. There is little risk that SVB’s failure will spill over to other banks.

Having said that, SVB’s collapse does highlight the risk that many banks have in their investment portfolios. If interest rates continue to rise, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that they will, the value of the investment portfolios of banks across the U.S. will continue to go down.

While these losses are just on paper – meaning they’re not realized until the assets are sold – they still can increase a bank’s overall risk. How much the risk will go up will vary from bank to bank.

The good news is that most banks currently have enough capital to absorb these losses – however large – in part because of efforts taken by the Fed after the 2008 financial crisis to ensure financial firms can weather any storm.

So rest easy for now, the banking system is sound.

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US stocks face tests from Tesla, Netflix earnings

US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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In Short:
– Earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix might affect U.S. stock performance next week amid high inflation concerns.
– Increased market volatility arises from U.S.-China trade tensions and fewer S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend.
This coming week, earnings reports from companies including Tesla and Netflix are anticipated to impact U.S. stock performance.
Investors are also awaiting delayed U.S. inflation data, which could test market stability as it remains near record highs.Recent trading activity has shown increased volatility, influenced by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns regarding regional bank credit risks. The CBOE volatility index has seen a rise, indicating increased market uncertainty.

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The S&P 500 entered its fourth year of growth amidst these fluctuations, having previously experienced a period of calm. Experts suggest market risks are intensifying as valuations reach peak levels.

Market Volatility

Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations escalated last week when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs by November 1 over China’s rare-earth export policies. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks to discuss these issues.

Despite these challenges, major stock indexes gained ground over the week, with the S&P 500 up 13.3% year-to-date. However, a noticeable decline in the number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend raises caution among investors about underlying market weaknesses.

The upcoming third-quarter earnings will be closely monitored, especially as the government shutdown halts economic data releases. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, RTX, and IBM are due to report. The delayed U.S. consumer price index is also expected to provide crucial insights ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.


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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent

Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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In Short:
– Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021.
– Economists note a cooling labour market, with fewer job ads and increased participation rate amid rising living costs.
Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5 per cent in September, up from 4.3 per cent in August.It marks the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021.

Economists suggest that the Reserve Bank should consider another interest rate cut next month. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese noted a slowdown in employment demand as the labour market struggles to accommodate job seekers.

The number of officially unemployed rose by 33,900 in September, while the employment count increased by 14,900. The labour force expanded by 48,800 people, resulting in a participation rate rise of 0.1 percentage points to 67 per cent, returning to July levels.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent.

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Labour Market

BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson stated that while the unemployment rate has increased, the labour market is cooling, not collapsing.

He pointed out that the 14,900 jobs added in September were slightly below the average for the past year.

A growing participation rate indicates that rising living costs are prompting more individuals to seek employment. Magnusson said the release confirms a gradual cooling of the labour market that keeps the Reserve Bank on track without necessitating immediate action.

He added that hiring activity is slowing, signalled by a 3.3 per cent drop in job advertisements in September, the largest monthly decrease since February 2024.

Despite this, he does not foresee a rate cut in November.


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Stocks rebound after Trump eases China trade tensions

Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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In Short:
– Stocks rose on Monday after Trump expressed optimism about trade relations with China.
– The Dow Jones gained 621 points, with significant increases in tech stocks and broad market recovery.
Stocks gained ground on Monday, recovering from Friday’s decline after President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding trade relations with China, stating they “will all be fine.”The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 621 points, approximately 70% of its previous loss. The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% increase, nearing a 60% recovery of its earlier drop. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 2.3%, bolstered by rebounds in technology stocks.

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Oracle’s stock surged over 5%, with AMD and Nvidia seeing 1% and 3% increases, respectively. Broadcom’s stock jumped 10% following the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI.

Trump’s comments hinted that he might not impose a significant increase in tariffs on China, which had previously caused market turmoil. Vice President JD Vance similarly indicated a willingness to negotiate with China, while also asserting that the U.S. holds advantages in potential trade discussions.

Broader Recovery

Monday’s trading saw a positive shift with four out of five S&P 500 stocks rising, indicating widespread recovery. Small-cap stocks also made gains, with the Russell 2000 rising over 2.5%.

Market concerns persist, however, with a government shutdown continuing and a major payroll deadline approaching on October 15. Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, are expected this week, potentially impacting market sentiment.


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