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World’s oldest bank faces its end

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The world’s oldest bank, Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena, founded in 1472, could be swallowed by rival UniCredit after performing poorly in a stress test

The bank’s performance was worse than any other in a test of its financial health by European regulators, the latest dark chapter in a saga of failed deals, financial mishandling, criminal wrongdoings and even a mysterious death.

The test revealed a severe recession would effectively destroy the bank’s capital – news which has forced the Italian governments hand.

UniCredit, one of Italy’s largest banks, said last month that plans were being made to buy Monte dei Paschi, on the condition that the government keep all the bad loans.

Downfall shrouded in controversy

In 2013, as police investigated allegations that bank executives hid losses from regulators and shareholders, Monte dei Paschi’s head of communications was found dead in an alley below his window in an apparent suicide.

Officials did not find conclusive evidence of any wrongdoing.

Then, in 2019, several Monte dei Paschi executives were convicted of illegally using complex derivatives to cover up bank problems. They have since appealed.

The news comes amidst Italy’s prolonged efforts to rebuild its economy

Mario Draghi, the Italian prime minister and former president of the European Central Bank, has been pushing for reforms which could drag the country out of its slump.

Italian PM Mario Draghi

Monte dei Paschi’s termination “would free resources, time and political capital for more important issues,” says Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Italian treasury who is now an independent consultant.

“There is strong political pressure to find a solution as soon as possible”.

Banks with similar issues to Monte dei Paschi would have been sold long ago, but because of the city’s historical ties to the bank, some citizens are reluctant to see it go. The sale to UniCredit is likely to lead to as many as 5,000 job cuts, a third of the total, according to Italian news reports. It remains the city of Siena’s largest private employer, and few banks across the world are as interwoven in the fabric of the city as Monte dei Paschi once was.

The potential sale to UniCredit is now an issue in city and parliamentary elections, with many politicians calling for the city to move on from its economic and psychological connections with the bank.

Enrico Letta, former prime minister of Italy who is now running for office in Siena, argues that its time and tide the city invest in other avenues, like healthcare.

“Siena wanted to be the capital of finance, Siena can be the capital of life sciences,” Mr Letta said.

“We have to give Siena a new mission”.

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Money

US stocks face tests from Tesla, Netflix earnings

US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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In Short:
– Earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix might affect U.S. stock performance next week amid high inflation concerns.
– Increased market volatility arises from U.S.-China trade tensions and fewer S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend.
This coming week, earnings reports from companies including Tesla and Netflix are anticipated to impact U.S. stock performance.
Investors are also awaiting delayed U.S. inflation data, which could test market stability as it remains near record highs.Recent trading activity has shown increased volatility, influenced by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns regarding regional bank credit risks. The CBOE volatility index has seen a rise, indicating increased market uncertainty.

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The S&P 500 entered its fourth year of growth amidst these fluctuations, having previously experienced a period of calm. Experts suggest market risks are intensifying as valuations reach peak levels.

Market Volatility

Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations escalated last week when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs by November 1 over China’s rare-earth export policies. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks to discuss these issues.

Despite these challenges, major stock indexes gained ground over the week, with the S&P 500 up 13.3% year-to-date. However, a noticeable decline in the number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend raises caution among investors about underlying market weaknesses.

The upcoming third-quarter earnings will be closely monitored, especially as the government shutdown halts economic data releases. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, RTX, and IBM are due to report. The delayed U.S. consumer price index is also expected to provide crucial insights ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.


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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent

Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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In Short:
– Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021.
– Economists note a cooling labour market, with fewer job ads and increased participation rate amid rising living costs.
Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5 per cent in September, up from 4.3 per cent in August.It marks the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021.

Economists suggest that the Reserve Bank should consider another interest rate cut next month. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese noted a slowdown in employment demand as the labour market struggles to accommodate job seekers.

The number of officially unemployed rose by 33,900 in September, while the employment count increased by 14,900. The labour force expanded by 48,800 people, resulting in a participation rate rise of 0.1 percentage points to 67 per cent, returning to July levels.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent.

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Labour Market

BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson stated that while the unemployment rate has increased, the labour market is cooling, not collapsing.

He pointed out that the 14,900 jobs added in September were slightly below the average for the past year.

A growing participation rate indicates that rising living costs are prompting more individuals to seek employment. Magnusson said the release confirms a gradual cooling of the labour market that keeps the Reserve Bank on track without necessitating immediate action.

He added that hiring activity is slowing, signalled by a 3.3 per cent drop in job advertisements in September, the largest monthly decrease since February 2024.

Despite this, he does not foresee a rate cut in November.


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Stocks rebound after Trump eases China trade tensions

Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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In Short:
– Stocks rose on Monday after Trump expressed optimism about trade relations with China.
– The Dow Jones gained 621 points, with significant increases in tech stocks and broad market recovery.
Stocks gained ground on Monday, recovering from Friday’s decline after President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding trade relations with China, stating they “will all be fine.”The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 621 points, approximately 70% of its previous loss. The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% increase, nearing a 60% recovery of its earlier drop. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 2.3%, bolstered by rebounds in technology stocks.

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Oracle’s stock surged over 5%, with AMD and Nvidia seeing 1% and 3% increases, respectively. Broadcom’s stock jumped 10% following the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI.

Trump’s comments hinted that he might not impose a significant increase in tariffs on China, which had previously caused market turmoil. Vice President JD Vance similarly indicated a willingness to negotiate with China, while also asserting that the U.S. holds advantages in potential trade discussions.

Broader Recovery

Monday’s trading saw a positive shift with four out of five S&P 500 stocks rising, indicating widespread recovery. Small-cap stocks also made gains, with the Russell 2000 rising over 2.5%.

Market concerns persist, however, with a government shutdown continuing and a major payroll deadline approaching on October 15. Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, are expected this week, potentially impacting market sentiment.


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