Why Iran’s latest protests could change the Middle East

Iran faces severe internal unrest, fueled by economic crisis and public anger, with protests spreading nationwide amidst government crackdowns.

Iran is facing one of its most serious internal challenges in decades, as widespread anti-government protests erupt across the country, fuelled by economic hardship, political frustration, and rising public anger. What began as demonstrations in Tehran’s historic bazaars has now evolved into the largest wave of unrest since 2022, placing unprecedented pressure on the Islamic Republic.

Authorities moved quickly to restrict information, shutting down internet and phone services during the largest night of protests so far. Despite the blackout, demonstrations have continued to spread, with rights groups warning that the situation remains critical as anger towards the regime deepens.

The protests were initially sparked by a sudden economic shock. Prices of essential goods such as cooking oil and chicken surged overnight after Iran’s central bank ended a programme that allowed importers access to cheaper US dollars. The decision triggered widespread shortages, shop closures, and a sharp rise in living costs, igniting demonstrations that quickly spread beyond Tehran. Government attempts to calm tensions, including small cash handouts worth just a few dollars a month, have failed to ease public frustration.

Significantly, the unrest began with the bazaaris — shopkeepers who have historically been loyal to the Islamic Republic and instrumental in supporting past political movements. Their participation has underscored the severity of Iran’s economic crisis, as currency fluctuations and inflation place increasing strain on businesses and households alike.

Over the past two weeks, protests have been reported in more than 100 cities, extending into western provinces where ethnic tensions and entrenched poverty have further inflamed unrest.

As the death toll rises, international concern has intensified. US President Donald Trump has warned Tehran of severe consequences if security forces continue to use excessive force against protesters. Iran, meanwhile, has cautioned Washington against any military intervention, raising fears that domestic unrest could escalate into a broader geopolitical confrontation.

Speculation is also growing over what could follow if Iran’s Islamist regime were to fall after more than four decades in power. Figures such as exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi have re-emerged in discussions about Iran’s political future, alongside other opposition figures who could seek to shape a post-regime landscape.

Iran’s role as a major regional power means the stakes extend far beyond its borders. Any significant shift in Tehran’s leadership or political direction would have profound implications for the Middle East and global security. As protests continue and tensions mount, the coming days and weeks may prove pivotal — not just for Iran, but for the wider world.

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