Why China’s birthrate continues to decline

Mainland China’s birth rate dropped to a record low of 7.52 per 1,000 people in 2021, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics

The decreasing birth rate accelerated downward trend, despite the Chinese Government allowing couples to have up to three children, increasing it from two, effective last year.

China scrapped its decades-old one-child policy back in 2016, replacing it with a two-child limit to try to avoid the economic risks from a rapidly ageing population, but the high cost of urban living has deterred couples from having more children.

The declining birth rate is the lowest since 1949

The birth rate was the lowest since 1949, when the statistics bureau began collating the data.

The natural growth rate of China’s population, which excludes migration, was only 0.034% for 2021, the lowest since 1960, according to the data.

“The demographic challenge is well known but the speed of population aging is clearly faster than expected,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset management.

“This suggests China’s total population may have reached its peak in 2021. It also indicates China’s potential growth is likely slowing faster than expected,” Zhang said.

There were 10.62 million births in 2021, the data showed, compared with 12 million in 2020.

The birth rate in 2020 was 8.52 births per 1,000 people.