Who is winning the battle of the heavy weights NRL or AFL? The ‘code wars’ revisited

The so-called ‘code wars’ continue in Australia winter sport with National Rugby League (NRL) chair Peter V’Landys claiming victory over the Australian Football League (AFL) in his latest salvo. But is he right?

What does the AFL say in reply and how about the other football codes, soccer and rugby union?

First of all, they are not wars. Wars are what happens between Israel and Hamas, or Russia and Ukraine or India and Pakistan. This is just healthy competition for talent, fans, sponsors and increasingly eyeballs via TV, digital media and streaming.

Most nations have only one football code — soccer (short of its official name ‘Association football’) — or maybe two, soccer and rugby union. But the lucky country has four codes of football – home grown Australian rules (run by the AFL), rugby league (NRL), soccer and rugby union. And as economic theory tells us more competition is good for the consumer, in this case the consumer is the Aussie sports fan.

But in the battle of the footy superpowers why does V’Landys claim that:

“Rugby League has reaffirmed it’s standing as the No. 1 sporting code in Australia and the Pacific after the Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC) announced record breaking attendances, TV audiences, participation, revenue and assets.”

Source: https://www.nrl.com/news/2025/02/21/no.1-sport-in-australia–the-pacific-a-lot-to-be-proud-of/

Note that the NRL refers to audiences in Australia and the Pacific, explaining the push into Papua New Guinea (PNG) and potentially further expansion in New Zealand in response to rivalry from rugby union’s Super Rugby Pacific competition and even the US National Football League (NFL)’s foray into the Pacific.

But is the NRL right to claim the crown? What’s his basis for that? Thanks to the folks from SportsIndustryAU we can make a direct comparison between the codes.

In terms of Revenue, in 2024, the AFL earnt 39 per cent more than the NRL, earning just over a billion dollars Australian at $1,039 million compared to 744.8 million even though NRL revenue was up by 6.2 per cent on the previous year.

In terms of Profit, the NRL reported a profit 51 per cent higher than the AFL. This was thanks to the NRL having only half the operational expenses of the AFL, but the AFL still had an operating profit prior to the distributions to the clubs that were 13 per cent higher than the NRL.

In terms of Net Assets, the AFL is richer than the NRL. The AFL has total assets of $765,708m but with liabilities bringing the net assets to $482,246m. The AFL owns Marvel Stadium and a share in Champion Data. By contrast, [the NRL] has total assets of $402,531m and net assets of $322,390m including a share in hotels.

In terms of TV audience, the NRL was 10 per cent of the AFL in terms of average aggregated attendance for 2024 — 153.7m to 140.3m. However, many analysts think reach is more important, and there are complications in terms of AFL going for longer and having more games than NRL, whilst the NRL has more people watching in the Pacific.

This does not include streaming that will be part of a future broadcast deal. In fact, streaming is growing exponentially overseas. In the NFL for example, streaming media rights are said to be worth more than US$100 billion (A$161 billion) and a reason why the NFL is playing an exhibition game in Melbourne in 2026.

See: https://theconversation.com/its-the-most-american-of-sports–so-why-is-the-nfl-looking-to-melbourne-for-international-games-248870

In terms of attendance and membership, the AFL is a clear winner. NRL recorded 4.3 million fans through the gate whilst AFL attracted 7.7 million fans for the home and away season plus another 592,000 for the finals and always gets almost 100,000 to the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) for the Grand Final. The AFL clubs have 1,319,687 members in 2024, with just over 400,000 expected for the NRL (based on club data as the NRL does not release membership data).

In terms of participation, Ausplay estimates 641,390 Aussie rules players (kids outside school hours and adults in organised clubs) compared to 531,323 for Rugby League — but including Touch Football and Oztag. But soccer participation is much higher than both codes: 1.4 million participants (kids and adults), with official affiliated club participation at 640,234 for 2024.

But this heavy weight battle is not settled and expansion is on the way for both codes. The NRL has just announced the Perth Bears (reviving the old North Sydney Bears with a new Western Australia base) to join the new PNG team. That will leave the NRL with 19 teams, with a possible 20th team slated for New Zealand or Ipswich in the Western Brisbane corridor.

Similarly, the AFL is looking at either the Northern Territory team based in Darwin or a Canberra team to join as the 20th team after Tasmania consolidated its position as the 19th.

In addition, after a successful Magic Round in Brisbane, CEO Andrew Abdo floated the possibility of taking the event overseas, with Hong Kong and Dubai reportedly expressing interest. This could be done to start a bidding war and extract more out of the Queensland government. Also after the razzle dazzle of opening round in Las Vegas, the NRL may expand offshore and may take a stake in the UK Super League (the Wigan and Warrington clubs also played in Vegas as part of the NRL extravaganza).

Likewise, the AFL has a very popular Gather Round in Adelaide, instigated by Premier Peter Malinauskas. But could it go anywhere else? There could be a Tassie Round when the Tassie Devils arrive but it is likely to remain a South Australian fixture.

Of course, as a domestic game Aussie Rules cannot expand beyond our shores. But is this a disadvantage? After all, they don’t lose players overseas like the more globalised codes, rugby union, soccer and even basketball. The A-League is dwarfed by the English Premier League (EPL) and many Australians who barrack for Liverpool may pay not much attention to the A-League — similarly in basketball. Rugby union also loses players to better paying leagues overseas. There’s no doubt in the AFL and NRL, like cricket, you are watching the best in the world when you watch in Australia.

However, soccer and rugby union have the excitement of the World Cup, when the whole nation gets behind the national teams — especially the Matildas, Socceroos, Wallabies and Wallaroos. The World Cups are big events like the Olympics attracting global attention. This probably explains Peter V’Landys’ push into the Pacific and into the UK Super League for some northern exposure. And that will open up a new front in the competition between the NRL and AFL in the ‘healthy rivalry’ (i.e. not a war) between the codes.

Professor Tim Harcourt is industry professor and chief economist at the Centre for Sport, Business and Society (CSBS), University of Technology Sydney and author of Footynomics and the Business of Sport
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