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U.S. recession worries surge again

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An unexpectedly weak U.S. employment report has rekindled worries a recession may be looming, potentially dashing the Federal Reserve’s hopes for a soft landing for the economy.

 

With stock markets reeling on the premise the Fed has now kept interest rates too high for too long, a narrative of a balanced outcome has suddenly been overtaken by bearish sentiment.

Growth and Demand

Most recessions occur when overall economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP), falls significantly. This has not happened, nor does it appear imminent. Growth in the second quarter came in at 2.8% on an annualised basis, double the rate of the first quarter, matching the average growth rate over the three years before the pandemic.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s preferred gauge of underlying private-sector demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, held at 2.6% in the second quarter, aligning with its average of the last 18 months.

Services Sector Strength

The Institute for Supply Management’s services activity index climbed back into expansion territory, with new orders and employment measures rebounding. Similarly, S&P Global’s services activity measure, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, remained near its highest in over two years in July.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the surveys indicate ongoing economic growth at a solid annualised 2.2% pace.

Inflation Cooling

High interest rates persist due to the inflation surge in 2021 and 2022, which has been slow to abate. Early 2024 saw an unexpected inflation uptick, delaying potential rate cuts. However, recent data shows inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% target, suggesting that rate cuts may begin soon. The critical question for investors is whether the Fed waited too long to prioritise employment over inflation.

Job Market Signals Recession?

U.S. employers have slowed hiring, adding an average of about 170,000 jobs each month over the past three months, down from 267,000 a month in the first quarter and 251,000 last year.

The unemployment rate rose in July for the fourth consecutive month to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.

The Sahm rule, indicating a recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point above its low from the previous 12 months, has historically been accurate.

Claudia Sahm, the economist who defined the rule, noted on Bloomberg TV that while the economy is probably not currently in a recession, it is “uncomfortably close.”

Delinquencies on the Rise

The U.S. household debt delinquency rate rose to 3.2% in the first quarter from 3.1% at the end of last year. Although this is below the 4.7% seen before the pandemic, delinquency rates among credit-card borrowers, particularly younger and lower-income groups who have maxed out their credit limits, have increased significantly.

Analysts warn that financial strains on low-income households could ripple through the broader economy.

The New York Fed is set to release second-quarter data on Tuesday.

Recent economic reports have consistently fallen short of economists’ forecasts, with the latest weak employment data exemplifying this trend.

Citigroup’s “Surprise Index” is near a two-year low, reflecting diminished investor confidence in the Fed’s ability to engineer a soft landing for the economy.

What Can Be Done?

The 2020 pandemic recession saw aggressive fiscal and monetary interventions, including rate cuts to zero and massive bond purchases by the Fed, alongside substantial government spending.

This time, the Fed’s policy rate, currently in the 5.25%-5.5% range, provides more room for cuts compared to March 2020. However, high U.S. government debt levels may limit robust fiscal stimulus from the current or next presidential administration.

Ahron Young is an award winning journalist who has covered major news events around the world. Ahron is the Managing Editor and Founder of TICKER NEWS.

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China defends rare earth export curbs amid U.S. tensions

China defends rare earth export curbs as legitimate amid rising tensions with U.S. over tariffs and impending Trump-Xi meeting

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China defends rare earth export curbs as legitimate amid rising tensions with U.S. over tariffs and impending Trump-Xi meeting

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In Short:
– China defends rare earth export restrictions as lawful responses to U.S. tariffs and promotes global peace.
– U.S. imposes 100% tariffs, affecting trade relations and causing significant market losses.
China has defended its recent export restrictions on rare earths as a legitimate response under international law, countering U.S. claims of economic coercion after new U.S. tariffs were imposed.The Chinese Ministry of Commerce clarified that these measures, implemented on October 9, aim to enhance export control systems and promote global peace amid a turbulent security landscape.

The controls include not only rare earth materials but also intellectual property and technologies related to them.

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The ministry noted that these restrictions are not outright export bans, asserting that applications meeting certain criteria will still be approved. It indicated confidence that the measures would have a minimal impact on the supply chain. Foreign entities will need a license if exporting products containing over 0.1% of locally-sourced rare earths, with weapons-related applications automatically denied.

In response, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on October 10 new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, beginning November 1, along with export controls on critical software. Following these statements, global stock markets reacted negatively, resulting in a loss of $2 trillion in market capitalisation.

China contends that the U.S. operates double standards, as its own control list comprises over 3,000 items compared to China’s fewer than 1,000. China plays a crucial role in the rare earth supply, holding approximately 70% of the global market.

Trade Tensions

In addition to the export controls, China disclosed plans to begin charging U.S. ships docked at its ports, mirroring new U.S. fees for Chinese vessels. This action is presented as a necessary counter to U.S. measures, complicating the atmosphere of ongoing trade discussions.

U.S. and Chinese officials have engaged in various negotiations over recent months, focusing on topics such as the divestment of TikTok, but tensions remain high following recent developments.


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White House blames Democrats for thousands of layoffs

Trump blames Democrats as White House layoffs thousands of federal workers amid ongoing government shutdown

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Trump blames Democrats as White House layoffs thousands of federal workers amid ongoing government shutdown

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In Short:
– Trump announced layoffs for thousands of government workers, blaming Democrats during the government shutdown.
– Job cuts affect multiple agencies, with unions filing lawsuits against the layoffs’ legality.
President Donald Trump announced layoffs affecting thousands of U.S. government workers, attributing the decision to Democrats during the ongoing government shutdown.Job cuts began at several federal agencies, including the Treasury Department, the Internal Revenue Service, and the Department of Health and Human Services, although the overall number of layoffs remains uncertain.

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Roughly 300,000 federal workers were already anticipated to leave jobs this year due to a downsizing initiative by Trump.

The layoffs come as Trump continues to pressure Democrats for government funding. Republicans, holding majorities in Congress, require Democratic support in the Senate for funding measures.

Democrats insist they will not compromise under pressure, holding Republicans accountable for job losses. Labor unions have filed lawsuits against the layoffs, arguing their legality during the shutdown.

Job Cuts

A federal court will hear the case soon. Despite legal requirements for notification before layoffs, some officials have raised concerns over the impact on federal services.

Top Republican Senator Susan Collins expressed her objection to the layoffs, emphasising the importance of federal employees.

A White House budget director confirmed the initiation of layoffs, while many federal workers are either on furlough or working without pay. The Department of Health and Human Services is particularly affected, with a substantial number of staff receiving layoff notices.

Job reductions are also reported at the Education and Commerce Departments, among others. The Department of Homeland Security has made cuts in its cybersecurity division. However, the Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration remain unaffected.


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Hamas trusts Trump, risks hostages for peace deal

Hamas trusts Trump to broker hostage deal as gamble for peace despite past concerns over Israeli actions

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Hamas trusts Trump to broker hostage deal as gamble for peace despite past concerns over Israeli actions

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In Short:
– Hamas called Trump a racist but believes he may help facilitate peace with Israel.
– Ongoing negotiations are uncertain, with Hamas optimistic despite lacking formal guarantees.
Hamas has called Donald Trump a racist and a “recipe for chaos.” However, a phone call from Trump convinced Hamas that he might facilitate a peace deal with Israel, even if they surrender their hostages.
Under the agreement, which began on Friday, Hamas will release hostages without a commitment from Israel to withdraw. This decision is seen as precarious, with fears that hostilities may resume post-release, similar to events following a previous ceasefire.Banner

During indirect negotiations, Trump’s involvement reportedly reassured Hamas leaders, bolstering their confidence in a lasting ceasefire.

Future Uncertain

Negotiations continue over details such as the timetable for Israeli troop withdrawal.

The mediating role of Qatar and Turkey has been pivotal, alongside U.S. participation, in moving discussions forward.

Hamas has shifted its stance on hostage retention, viewing it as detrimental to global support for their cause. Nonetheless, they received no formal guarantees regarding the progression towards a more comprehensive agreement to end the conflict.

Despite awareness of the risks involved in their gamble, Hamas leaders seem optimistic about ongoing talks, with pressures from mediators fostering a sense of seriousness in negotiations from both sides.

Trump’s anticipated visit to the region is expected to reinforce these developments, even as complexities remain in finalising the terms of the deal.


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