Ticker Views
Three ways the War in Ukraine could end
As the war in Ukraine intensifies, experts and global analysts are now trying to identify how the crisis could end.
With the CIA warning that Vladimir Putin will destroy Ukraine unless he can take it, Ticker’s Ahron Young takes a look at the three most likely ways the war can end.
If Vladimir Putin thought his troops could walk into and take Ukraine in a bloodless coup, history will show he was greatly mistaken.
Whether it was hubris or arrogance, Putin’s war is likely to last months or years.
And that’s despite the heavy sanctions.
So how can the West and Ukraine, end this war sooner?
Exhaust the enemy
Russia runs out of steam.
Russia’s military strategy has at times been beset with logistical issues, and confusing military objectives.
Russia never realised how significant the resistance from Ukraine would be. And neither did their logistics. The longer Ukraine holds out, the harder it will be for Moscow to sustain the war.
This could allow Russia to decide to withdraw troops and allow Ukraine to remain a sovereign nation. A Ukrainian insurgency would make sure this happens.
Divide and conquer
Russia could decide to divide and conquer. By separating Ukraine into the parts it can take, and ignore the ones it doesn’t want. That would provide Russia with a win win situation, and make the West decide just how hard it will fight.
The Dombas region would be the most likely contender. But it could lead to a drawn out conflict, giving Putin time to prepare for a second go.
NATO intervention
NATO could admit Ukraine and directly intervene in the conflict, starting with a no fly zone.
But this strategy is highly dangerous and will likely have unintended consequences.
That could backfire on Ukraine, because Russia would be drawn into a war with Europe, leaving Ukraine to fend for itself.
One thing is clear – if Russia prevails in Ukraine, the result would be a new iron curtain, isolating Russia from the rest of the world.