Stocks rebound despite tariff concerns and earnings anticipation

US stocks rebound amid tariff uncertainty; key earnings reports and economic data loom as volatility persists in the market.

In Short

The stock market recovered after an early decline, led by companies like Boeing and IBM.

Investors are cautious ahead of upcoming economic data and potential trade developments, with projections of a 7% drop in S&P 500 earnings by 2025 due to tariffs.

A late recovery in the stock market reversed an early decline as dip buyers entered during a volatile day.

On Monday, the S&P 500 completed its fifth reversal of 1% or more in a month, matching the total seen throughout 2024. Gains were led by Boeing and IBM, while Nvidia fell following Huawei’s announcement regarding a new chip. Major tech companies, including Microsoft and Apple, are expected to report earnings soon.

Short-term Treasuries performed better, and the dollar weakened amidst ongoing economic data releases.

Economic data

The upcoming week promises substantial economic data, with reports on jobs and inflation due. A Texas manufacturing survey revealed significant weakness, with executives describing the tariff situation as chaotic.

Experts predict an eventful week, with potential for market volatility driven by various trade and economic headlines. Investors are particularly attuned to trade relations with China, with outlooks hinging on government actions.

Despite some executives remaining uncertain about tariff impacts, analysts are calculating potential effects on corporate earnings. Bloomberg Economics projects net income for the S&P 500 could drop around 7% by 2025 due to elevated tariff rates, compared to previous growth expectations.

Morgan Stanley suggests that a weak dollar may help US earnings, keeping the S&P 500 within a 5,000 to 5,500 range unless trade agreements with China are made, alongside a rebound in earnings and potential easing of monetary policy.