Sneak peak: Republican presidential field 2024

Let’s start the New Year off right:  classy political gossip

The Democrats are already into it, with columnists suggesting President Biden should dump Kamala Harris and take on Liz Cheney as his VP (Tom Friedman in the New York Times), and that there are likely more than a dozen contenders for the Democratic throne (per Perry Bacon Jr in the Washington Post):  Kentucky Governor Any Beshear, Senator Corey Booker, former Montana governor Steve Bullock, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (Pa.), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), Sen. Maggie Hassan (N.H.), Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (WI), Sen. Raphael Warnock (Ga.), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. Oh yes, according to two New York politicos, Hillary Clinton is for sure coming in.  (Spoiler alert:  No she won’t. Trust me on this)

That sounds as exciting as the 2020 Iowa primary.  But we don’t have to go there. 

Instead, let’s look at the Republicans. The initial cut at their field looks like this:

Donald Trump.   Numero Uno. El Jefe-in-Chief.  Everyone who talks with Trump comes away with the absolute impression he is running.  Which is exactly the impression Trump wants to leave.

He dominates the Republican Party as no one has since Ronald Reagan.  He is purging Republicans from their seats in Congress who voted to impeach him or support the January 6 House Select Committee.

He is endorsing not only candidates for governor, the House and Senate, but also for state government offices where the votes are counted in key states, like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. 

He wants to make sure that no matter what the ballots say, he wins those states. Money is no issue for Trump. Demanding complete and utter loyalty is – not only to him but to his belief that the 2020 election was stolen, and that he is the legitimate president, and that the record of the stolen election has to be corrected.  

So the interesting question is:  who has the spine, the temerity, the courage, the foolhardiness, the fearlessness, the crazy imagination, the guts, after seeing what Trump did to the field in 2016?

That they actually think they can go mano-a-mano against Trump and beat him in the Republican primaries  – to have the stamina to remain standing after Trump unloads on them and calls on his base to eviscerate their candidacies?

Who indeed? Who gets up in the morning, puts their pants on one leg at a time, looks at themselves in the mirror and says:  Yes, I can beat  and I can beat that you-know-what and become President of the United States?  

Right now, that field is composed of five white men:

Mike Pence, former Vice President.  Pence, a man with enormous ambition, was serving as governor of Indiana in 2016.  He desperately wanted to be Trump’s VP because it would mean he could become the P.  Pence still hungers for it. 

But there is one problem:  Trump hates him for his disloyalty in not overturning Biden’s election when the Electoral College votes were counted. 

Pence stood up to withering pressure from Trump to be loyal, and Pence did his constitutional duty instead.  Trump never forgives. Trump has made no secret that he hates Pence.  And Trump’s base knows it, and they will not vote for him.

Mike Pompeo, former Secretary of State.  Pompeo, who also served as head of the CIA under Trump, was hardline loyal to Trump’s foreign policy objectives.

Wherever Trump wanted to go on Russia or China or dealing with the Taliban to get out of Afghanistan, Pompeo was there.  Pompeo is sharp, articulate, and fierce.  He can bring a focus on Trumpist policies that work with the base. He has also lost over 40 kilos – a sure sign he is running.

Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey.  After years of dealing with Trump and being in his good graces (Trump wanted Christie to be his chief of staff in the White House), Christie has broken with Trump. 

Christie believes the party needs to move on, and that Trump’s obsession with the 2020 election is a cancer on the party.  And they don’t play beanbag in New Jersey. Christie can take any knuckledusters Trump wants to throw.

Larry Hogan, governor of Maryland. A super longshot.  Hogan is a moderate Republican and extremely popular in Maryland, a Democratic state.  He too believes in a post-Trump Republican party and wants to take his call to conscience on the road. His prospects are zero.

Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida.  A bigger threat to Trump than Pence or Pompeo.  DeSantis has all the Trumpist policy swagger – but not Trump’s character flaws.  In other words, 100% Trumpism without Trump. 

So what is the governor doing in Florida right now?  Passing a law to outlaw abortion after 15 weeks and making sure racial equity is not taught in Florida schools  and ensuring Florida health policy is against everything Dr Anthony Fauci is for in terms of dealing with Covid.  DeSantis is pugnacious and defiant.  He has immense belief in his political skills and strength. To paraphrase Marlon Brando in On The Waterfront,  “He is a contender.”

If DeSantis is not muscled out of running by Trump, he will likely prove to be Trump’s fiercest competitor. 

One hitch for Trump:  he can’t get DeSantis out of the way by offering him the vice presidency. 

The Constitution effectively stops the president and vice president from being from the same state.  (The 12^th Amendment reads in relevant part:  “The electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.”)

So, who will be on the Republican ballot to carry Florida in 2024?  Trump or DeSantis?