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Post Market Wrap | Rio Tinto launches US$2.7B cash offer for full ownership of Turquoise Hill

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Offer price is a 32 percent premium to Turquoise Hill’s last closing share price
  • Two-thirds of Turquoise Hill minority shareholders must approve the offer
  • Acquisition will strengthen RIO’s exposure to copper
  • Copper is strategically important given its application to Electric Vehicles and wind turbines. 

Rio Tinto Limited (‘RIO’ or the ‘Company’) is the world’s second-largest metals and mining corporation (after BHP). The Company’s product groups are iron ore, copper & diamonds, aluminium, gold and uranium. The Company’s iron ore interests are based in the Pilbara region of Western Australia and comprise a number of large-scale integrated mines.

Cash bid for Turquoise Hill 

RIO has announced its intention to acquire the remaining 49 percent equity that it doesn’t currently own in Toronto Stock Exchange listed miner Turquoise Hill, for C$34 a share. The offer price is a 32 percent premium to Turquoise Hill’s last closing share price and values the 49 percent minority stake at US$2.7 billion. The bid price appears reasonable given RIO already has a controlling 51 percent equity stake, so it is not bound to include a change-of-control premium in the offer price. Turquoise Hill shareholders must approve the ownership change, which requires two thirds of Turquoise Hill minority shareholders to vote in favour of the proposal. 

Turquoise Hill is the majority owner of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia. The acquisition will deliver to RIO a 66 percent stake in the copper mine alongside the Mongolian government, which owns the remaining 34 percent interest. RIO are already familiar with the Oya Tolgoi copper project, having spent more than US$6 billion in operating and capital costs since 2010.  A controlling interest in Oyu Tolgoi strengthens RIO’s position in copper and clears the way for it to negotiate suitable terms with the Mongolian government, before committing to funding the cost of underground mining operations. RIO believe that these negotiations are likely to be more productive once the ownership structure of Oyu Tolgoi is simplified by having just 2 parties agree to the terms under which the project expansion can proceed. 

RIO’s all-cash bid for 100 percent of Turquoise Hill appears logical before these negotiations with the Joint Venture partner in the Mongolian government proceed, given the significant amount of capital investment required to fund the underground mining extension. The offer is also well-timed because it relieves existing Turquoise Hill shareholders from having to fund a large equity raising to avoid dilution, if the RIO take-over offer is not accepted. 

Image: File

The economic significance of RIO’s proposed 100 percent ownership of Turquoise Hill is illustrated by the fact that Oyu Tolgoi will deliver additional production of 52,000 tonnes per annum of copper from existing mining operations. This is equivalent to an additional 9 percent of RIO’s present copper production volume. Importantly, the proposed underground expansion of Oyu Tolgoi can deliver up to another 160,000 tonnes per annum, being a 28 percent increase to existing production volume, by 2028.  This amount compares to RIO’s estimated FY2022 mined copper production of 500-575,000 tonnes. At present, underground operations are expected to deliver first production in H1 2023.

Copper is strategically significant to miners across the globe given that it is an essential commodity used in Electric Vehicles and wind turbines. The acquisition also diversifies RIO’s mining interests, which are heavily tilted to iron ore production, which represents about 76 percent of EBITDA.

RIO’s gradual diversification from iron ore to future-facing metals like lithium and now copper, which are essential commodities in a carbon-neutral world, is likely to be well supported by equity markets.   

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says

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Brad Elphinstone, Swinburne University of Technology

Over the next decade, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire. The Tesla board recently proposed a US$1 trillion (A$1.5 trillion) compensation plan, if Musk can meet a series of ambitious growth targets.

Australia’s corporate pay packets aren’t quite on that scale. Yet even here, on Friday it was reported departing Virgin chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka will collect nearly $50 million in shares and other cash benefits on her way out the door.

Research from the United States suggests people think the average CEO earns ten times more than the average worker – and would prefer it was closer to only five times more.

In fact, the real gap in the US over the past decade has been estimated to mean CEOs earn a staggering 265 to 300 times more than average US workers.

Australians think CEOs earn seven times more than the average worker and would prefer if it was only three times more.

But the real gap here is also much higher. A long-running study found CEOs of the top 100 Australian companies earned 55 times more last financial year than average workers.

So, how much money is enough?

People have asked this question for thousands of years. The ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle explained the idea of eudaimonia, or a roadmap of “living well”, saying it:

belongs more to those who have cultivated their character and mind to the uttermost, and kept acquisition of external goods within moderate limits, than it does to those who have managed to acquire more external goods than they can possibly use, and are lacking goods of the soul.

Aristotle’s philosophy doesn’t call on us to shun money or wealth entirely, but argues it shouldn’t become life’s sole focus.

Research over recent decades has come to different conclusions on how much money is needed to achieve peak wellbeing.

A US study in 2010 suggested wellbeing maxes out around US$75,000. This figure naturally needs to be increased today to account for inflation – which, if those research findings are still true today, would be closer to US$111,000 in today’s dollars. You’d also need to take into account the cost of living in your area.

Other findings suggest wellbeing may continually increase with growing wealth, but the increase in wellbeing from $1 million to $10 million is likely less than when someone moves from poverty to middle class.

A 2022 experiment studied 200 people from Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya, Australia, Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom who were randomly given US$10,000 (A$15,000 at today’s exchange rate).

It found people in lower income countries “exhibited happiness gains three times larger than those in higher-income countries”, including Australia. But that cash still provided detectable benefits for people with household incomes up to US$123,000 (roughly A$184,000 today).

Remarkably, the people in that experiment (explained from 4:42 minutes into the video below) gave away more than two-thirds of that money to family, friends, strangers and charities.

Valuing time and relationships

Decades of international research have consistently shown materialistic goals – acquiring wealth and possessions for reasons associated with image and status – undermine wellbeing.

This is because materialistic striving is often borne out of low self-esteem or tending to compare oneself negatively to others, and there is always someone else to compare yourself against.

People can get stuck on the “hedonic treadmill”, where they get used to their new level of wealth and the luxuries it provides and then need more to feel happy.

It’s also because the work needed to acquire that wealth can mean less time focusing on hobbies and with loved ones.

Harvard research tracking two generations of men and their children over their lives, going back to 1938, shows deep, meaningful relationships with others are key to mental and physical wellbeing.

American psychologist Abraham Maslow developed a “hierarchy” of people’s “needs” in 1943. This suggested “self-actualisation” – reaching your pinnacle of personal growth – starts by having enough money to cover the basics of food, shelter, and access to the opportunities needed to grow as a person.

In line with this, research has shown “time affluence” (maximising free time by paying people to do things you don’t want to) and “experiential buying” (for example, meals out with loved ones, going on holidays) can support wellbeing by helping people develop new skills, build relationships, and create lifelong memories.

It’s in most of our interests to close the wealth gap

Recent data shows economic inequality in Australia is increasing. This is particularly affecting young Australians, as housing becomes less affordable.

At a broader social level, research from the UK indicates that as inequality increases, social outcomes get worse. These include increased crime, drug and alcohol abuse, obesity as people struggle to afford nutritious food, and reductions in social trust.

What percentage of wealth do you think is owned by the richest 20% of Australians? And in your ideal Australia, how much wealth should the richest 20% own?

The most recent Bureau of Statistics data we have, from 2019-20, showed the richest 20% of Australians owned around 62% of our wealth.

As inequality gets worse, evidence suggests it will lead to social problems that threaten to undermine the wellbeing of the whole community.

The irony is those who pursue extreme wealth and benefit most from this inequality will not necessarily be happier or more fulfilled because of it.The Conversation

Brad Elphinstone, Lecturer in psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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France receives lowest credit rating due to crisis

France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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In Short:
– Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s credit rating to A+, citing political instability and fiscal challenges.
– New Prime Minister Lecornu must secure budget approval amidst rising deficit and potential no-confidence vote.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+, the lowest ever recorded, amid ongoing political and fiscal challenges.
The decision comes shortly after Prime Minister François Bayrou was removed in a vote of no confidence regarding his €44 billion austerity plan.

President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the new prime minister, marking the fifth leadership change in under two years.Banner

Fitch highlighted political instability as a key factor undermining fiscal reforms, with France’s debt now at €3.3 trillion, or 113.9% of GDP.

The budget deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP and is expected to rise, posing challenges ahead.

Political Instability

The new prime minister faces a divided parliament and must secure budget approval by October 7.

The far-left plans a no-confidence vote against Lecornu, complicating further cooperation on legislative reforms, with S&P Global hinting at a potential downgrade.


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Trump moves to fast-track removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook

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The White House is set to fast-track a ruling on firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, just days before the crucial FOMC meeting.

The move comes as markets reel from surging inflation, weak jobless data, and global currency shifts, raising questions about the Fed’s independence and the stability of policy decisions.

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