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Post Market Wrap | Inflation Shock May Prompt RBA To Hike Rates As Early As Next Week

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Headline annual inflation rate 5.1 percent and underlying inflation 3.7 percent
  • Current official interest rate setting of 0.1 percent is no longer appropriate 
  • RBA dilemma: 0.15 percent increase next week or 0.4 percent next month? 
  • Capital markets are braced for interest rates to normalise.  

Not if, but when and how much?  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is faced with the prospect of runaway inflation if it doesn’t increase the official interest rate at its board meeting next Tuesday. This is the view of several leading economists in response to yesterday’s inflation data showing that the headline inflation rate is 5.1 percent pa and underlying inflation is now 3.7 percent. This is well outside the RBA’s stated inflation target range of 2-3 percent and the largest annual increase in inflation for more than 20 years. It comes at a time when interest rates are at a 40-year low and unemployment at a near 50-year low. Clearly history is not on the side of the RBA.       

The driving factors pushing consumer prices higher are well documented, and include supply chain cost pressures, higher fuel, grocery, tertiary education, and higher new housing costs. This is before wage cost pressures emerge. Another emerging factor is the recent fresh break-out of COVID in China that is causing lockdowns that may see a worsening of the supply chain constraints for key components of manufactured goods and materials essential to the orderly functioning of the Australian economy. This confluence of events implies that the current RBA official interest rate setting of 0.1 percent is no longer appropriate.

The dilemma for the RBA is that the government is in election mode and any decision not to increase the official rate next Tuesday may be seen as politically inspired. The RBA is an independent Central Bank and must be seen always to act independently. 

0.15 percent increase next week or 0.4 percent next month?

If interest rates are not increased next Tuesday, there is a risk that a rate rise at a later date may have to be higher than if a rate increase is announced next Tuesday. The market consensus is that a rate rise is necessary sooner rather than later, because this is what the data is already telling us: it wasn’t raining when Noah built the Ark!

A minimum 0.15 percent increase to the current 0.1 percent official cash rate, taking the official rate to 0.25 percent, is probable next Tuesday. If not, then the market widely anticipates a higher increase of 0.4 percent in June, taking the official interest rate to 0.5 percent.

If it’s in the news, it’s in the price

Market implications of an official interest rate rise, whether it is announced next week or next month, are likely to be muted, or neutral. Markets react poorly to surprises, and any interest rate rise announcement by the RBA next week, should not come as a surprise. Interestingly, if the RBA doesn’t announce an official rate rise next Tuesday, that may lead to a temporary market sell-off, because no change to official interest rates may come as surprise to some investment market participants. 

You can’t predict the future; but one must prepare for it!

Inflation is here and the present near zero interest rate setting is no longer appropriate. Zero interest rates may explain the current historically high asset prices, but they don’t justify them. Asset price inflation works for many investors (and homeowners), but it doesn’t do much for economic growth. 

This is why interest rates will soon begin to normalise. Investors should prepare for this scenario as it unfolds in the weeks and months ahead. 

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says

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Brad Elphinstone, Swinburne University of Technology

Over the next decade, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire. The Tesla board recently proposed a US$1 trillion (A$1.5 trillion) compensation plan, if Musk can meet a series of ambitious growth targets.

Australia’s corporate pay packets aren’t quite on that scale. Yet even here, on Friday it was reported departing Virgin chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka will collect nearly $50 million in shares and other cash benefits on her way out the door.

Research from the United States suggests people think the average CEO earns ten times more than the average worker – and would prefer it was closer to only five times more.

In fact, the real gap in the US over the past decade has been estimated to mean CEOs earn a staggering 265 to 300 times more than average US workers.

Australians think CEOs earn seven times more than the average worker and would prefer if it was only three times more.

But the real gap here is also much higher. A long-running study found CEOs of the top 100 Australian companies earned 55 times more last financial year than average workers.

So, how much money is enough?

People have asked this question for thousands of years. The ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle explained the idea of eudaimonia, or a roadmap of “living well”, saying it:

belongs more to those who have cultivated their character and mind to the uttermost, and kept acquisition of external goods within moderate limits, than it does to those who have managed to acquire more external goods than they can possibly use, and are lacking goods of the soul.

Aristotle’s philosophy doesn’t call on us to shun money or wealth entirely, but argues it shouldn’t become life’s sole focus.

Research over recent decades has come to different conclusions on how much money is needed to achieve peak wellbeing.

A US study in 2010 suggested wellbeing maxes out around US$75,000. This figure naturally needs to be increased today to account for inflation – which, if those research findings are still true today, would be closer to US$111,000 in today’s dollars. You’d also need to take into account the cost of living in your area.

Other findings suggest wellbeing may continually increase with growing wealth, but the increase in wellbeing from $1 million to $10 million is likely less than when someone moves from poverty to middle class.

A 2022 experiment studied 200 people from Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya, Australia, Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom who were randomly given US$10,000 (A$15,000 at today’s exchange rate).

It found people in lower income countries “exhibited happiness gains three times larger than those in higher-income countries”, including Australia. But that cash still provided detectable benefits for people with household incomes up to US$123,000 (roughly A$184,000 today).

Remarkably, the people in that experiment (explained from 4:42 minutes into the video below) gave away more than two-thirds of that money to family, friends, strangers and charities.

Valuing time and relationships

Decades of international research have consistently shown materialistic goals – acquiring wealth and possessions for reasons associated with image and status – undermine wellbeing.

This is because materialistic striving is often borne out of low self-esteem or tending to compare oneself negatively to others, and there is always someone else to compare yourself against.

People can get stuck on the “hedonic treadmill”, where they get used to their new level of wealth and the luxuries it provides and then need more to feel happy.

It’s also because the work needed to acquire that wealth can mean less time focusing on hobbies and with loved ones.

Harvard research tracking two generations of men and their children over their lives, going back to 1938, shows deep, meaningful relationships with others are key to mental and physical wellbeing.

American psychologist Abraham Maslow developed a “hierarchy” of people’s “needs” in 1943. This suggested “self-actualisation” – reaching your pinnacle of personal growth – starts by having enough money to cover the basics of food, shelter, and access to the opportunities needed to grow as a person.

In line with this, research has shown “time affluence” (maximising free time by paying people to do things you don’t want to) and “experiential buying” (for example, meals out with loved ones, going on holidays) can support wellbeing by helping people develop new skills, build relationships, and create lifelong memories.

It’s in most of our interests to close the wealth gap

Recent data shows economic inequality in Australia is increasing. This is particularly affecting young Australians, as housing becomes less affordable.

At a broader social level, research from the UK indicates that as inequality increases, social outcomes get worse. These include increased crime, drug and alcohol abuse, obesity as people struggle to afford nutritious food, and reductions in social trust.

What percentage of wealth do you think is owned by the richest 20% of Australians? And in your ideal Australia, how much wealth should the richest 20% own?

The most recent Bureau of Statistics data we have, from 2019-20, showed the richest 20% of Australians owned around 62% of our wealth.

As inequality gets worse, evidence suggests it will lead to social problems that threaten to undermine the wellbeing of the whole community.

The irony is those who pursue extreme wealth and benefit most from this inequality will not necessarily be happier or more fulfilled because of it.The Conversation

Brad Elphinstone, Lecturer in psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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France receives lowest credit rating due to crisis

France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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In Short:
– Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s credit rating to A+, citing political instability and fiscal challenges.
– New Prime Minister Lecornu must secure budget approval amidst rising deficit and potential no-confidence vote.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+, the lowest ever recorded, amid ongoing political and fiscal challenges.
The decision comes shortly after Prime Minister François Bayrou was removed in a vote of no confidence regarding his €44 billion austerity plan.

President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the new prime minister, marking the fifth leadership change in under two years.Banner

Fitch highlighted political instability as a key factor undermining fiscal reforms, with France’s debt now at €3.3 trillion, or 113.9% of GDP.

The budget deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP and is expected to rise, posing challenges ahead.

Political Instability

The new prime minister faces a divided parliament and must secure budget approval by October 7.

The far-left plans a no-confidence vote against Lecornu, complicating further cooperation on legislative reforms, with S&P Global hinting at a potential downgrade.


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Money

Trump moves to fast-track removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook

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The White House is set to fast-track a ruling on firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, just days before the crucial FOMC meeting.

The move comes as markets reel from surging inflation, weak jobless data, and global currency shifts, raising questions about the Fed’s independence and the stability of policy decisions.

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