One war is stalemated – One huge battle is about to begin

U.S President Joe Biden is navigating through a split screen week: war in Ukraine, supreme court battle in the senate

In Ukraine, Putin’s invasion is not winning.  But Zelensky’s heroic nation is not winning either.

As the Washington Post is reporting, 

“Russia’s attempt to conquer Ukraine could be headed toward a stalemate as heavy casualties and equipment losses take a toll on unprepared Russian forces that have failed so far to achieve any of their initial objectives, Western officials and military experts say. But in the absence of substantive progress on the ground and given the scale of the losses being inflicted on its ranks, Russia’s military campaign could soon become unsustainable, with troops unable to advance because they lack sufficient manpower, supplies and munitions, analysts and officials say,

“The next two weeks could be critical in determining the outcome of the entire war, they say. Unless Russia can swiftly improve its supply lines, bring reinforcements and bolster the flagging morale of the troops on the ground, its goals may become impossible to achieve.”

Ukraine no longer controls huge swaths of its country and is unable to expel the Russians.  This has immense consequences too, as Walter Russell Mead wrote this weekend: 

“Carl von Clausewitz noted long ago that a key to success is to pursue a retreating enemy. When an enemy is in retreat, it is possible to inflict the greatest damage on his forces, disorganized and disheartened. Mr. Putin’s armies may not yet be retreating in Ukraine, but the failure of his initial campaign—and the atrocious methods to which he must now resort to salvage his military position—have put him on the political and psychological defensive.”

Even so, this stalemate – with Russian forces not in retreat – means there is no incentive for Putin to engage seriously in peace talks. Putin’s has spurned those in Russia who oppose his war:

“But any people, and even more so the Russian people, will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors, and simply spit them out like a gnat that accidentally flew into their mouths, spit them out on the pavement.”

There are multiple channels available to Putin – with Israel’s PM Bennett, France’s President Macron, Turkey’s Erdogan, even China’s Xi – but he has played rope-a-dope diplomacy with them all.      

President Biden meets Thursday with Europe’s and NATO’s leaders to decide how they will help Ukraine prosecute the next steps in this epic battle.

The key to true peace may be if Russia faces reversals on the ground to the point where Putin needs an end to the carnage.

As Biden meets with his allies in Europe, his historic battle to place the first Black woman on the United States Supreme Court will be fully joined in the Senate.

On Monday, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, who currently serves on the nation’s second-highest court, the Court of Appeals in Washington, will take centre stage in the Senate Judiciary Committee, presenting her life story and outlining her judicial philosophy as the Senate weighs its consent for her appointment, as the Constitution requires.

As hyper-partisanship has strangled Washington and America’s politics over the past several decades, Supreme Court confirmations have been brutal.  The fight has been over the ideological balance of power in the ultimate arbiter of laws enacted in America, especially on the searing issues of abortion, gun rights, voting rights, religious freedom, and free speech.

By all accounts, Judge Jackson is simply extraordinarily brilliant.  She has met with every member of the Judiciary Committee, and nearly half of all Senators. This should be a relatively straightforward exercise. Her confirmation to the court will not alter its ideological balance.  Conservative justices still hold six of the nine seats on the court. 

But nothing is simple in Washington these days.  Judge Jackson was a public defender.  This experience will be unique on the current court.  Even though she has been endorsed by police groups and many Republicans in public life, some Republican Senators see her work with those accused of crimes as a red flag that she could be “soft on crime”.  They will try to use that as a wedge to paint her as “out of step” with “mainstream values”.

Judge Jackson will make a dramatic impression on the Senators and for millions of viewers across the country.  Given how riven politics in Washington are, she will almost certainly be confirmed, but with only one or two Republicans Senators joining the 50 Democrats in placing this unquestionably able woman to sit on the Supreme Court.