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Defending the Territory – Can Darwin be the AFL’s 20th Club?

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When the Tassie Devils join the AFL, in 2028, as the 19th team, Darwin will be the only capital city in Australia without an AFL or NRL team. Will the AFL go in and defend their territory which it failed to do in Canberra all those years ago?

The Footy Case for the Northern Territory

The case for a NT team in the AFL – to be called the Darwin Dingoes or Darwin Crocsis considered a romantic notion in some ways, but the footy case is strong. The Territory has produced rich reservoirs of football talent from Alice Springs to the Arafura Sea. Playing talent like Michael Long, the Rioli family, Andrew McLeod and Nathan Buckley roll off the tongue of any Aussie Rules diehard, and many Territory (often Indigenous) players become famous in the state leagues of SA and WA as well as the AFL. Many play in the Northern Territory Football League (NTFL) before heading down south in what is the ‘off season’ for the Top End.

In fact, according to James Coventry’s neat little book, Footballistics (2018), the NT is truly Aussie Rules heartland in terms of participation and talent. In terms of ‘footy readiness’, according to Coventry, the NT often comes top in terms of participation rates.

For a small population of just over 240,000 people, over 13 percent of Territorians participate in AFL programmes, compared to 8 per cent in WA, 6 per cent in SA and 2 per cent in Victoria. NT is top in terms of adult participation and top four in terms of children’s participation. In fact, in non-metropolitan areas, Coventry found there were 22,000 registered participants (in 2018), which means every child outside Darwin and Alice Springs plays footy—not allowing for the many unregistered participants who are also playing. In 2022, this had grown to around 40,000 participants. And in terms of talent, the NT produces 56 elite AFL players per million people, with only Victoria and SA ahead.

And in the NT, they simply love footy. Just watching the finals from the Tiwi Islands or Central Australia will tell you that! It also shows up statistically, with almost half the population favouring the AFL column in terms of Google searches—ranking it with the traditional Aussie Rules states Tasmania, SA, Victoria and WA.

AFL Club Taskforce – The Strategic Business Case

The NT AFL Club Taskforce, in their Strategic Business Case for the 20th licence, has examined a number of options. These include more AFL matches in Darwin and Alice Springs, a relocated team, or a Darwin-based stand-alone Northern Territory team that also plays in Alice. They even consider a Northern Australia team (Darwin-based but also playing in Cairns in Far North Queensland), although it may be better to have the Queensland teams—Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns—develop Far North Queensland, Central Queensland and the Sunshine Coast, and let the NT team focus on Darwin and Alice Springs. Hawthorn is also considering playing a few games in Cairns.

The Economic Challenge

Of course, that’s the footy case. It seems an open and shut case. But the economic case for the NT is much harder—especially given climate, population and financial considerations if the NT team requires a new stadium or upgrades to TIO Stadium in Marrara, Darwin and TIO Traeger Park Oval in Alice Springs.

As experience shows with NT teams, even the basketball team the Darwin Crocs struggled.
ABC News: NT Sports Club Struggles

Even with a significant AFL contribution of $7.83 million per year, the Taskforce forecasted that the NT AFL Club would need Federal and NT Government to fund an operational funding gap of $18.89 million per annum. This would include a new or upgraded stadium, with AFL NT chairman Sean Bowden explaining that:

The Stadium will anchor the opportunity to bid for a 20th licence in the AFL should that opportunity arise.”

However, the Taskforce noted:

The economic benefit to the NT could be as much as $559 million if the new club was provided with a new stadium. The Strategic Business Case indicates that an AFL Team would create 160 full-time jobs, bring game day activation of the economy and add $116M a year in economic output to the Territory economy.”

AFL NT makes its case

Social Impacts and National Significance

Hand in hand with the economic benefits come the social impacts. The NT has a serious problem with diabetes and associated health problems, low educational attainment and imprisonment. The Taskforce would develop pathways for participation—not only for elite footballers in an AFL and AFLW team—but also create a social safety net of social programs for all Territorians under the umbrella of the NT AFL team. Social cohesion is important for internal security in the same way as defence is important for external security.

In some ways, the NT team might be considered a national security (internal social cohesion) project. In the same way as the PNG team in the National Rugby League (NRL) is getting support from the Commonwealth Government for geo-political reasons (external security) to the tune of $600 million as part of a $750 million ambitious investment by the NRL:

An AFL team in Darwin might be considered in the same way. Darwin was the only capital city bombed in wartime in 1942. It is considered vital to our defence strategy, and the new tensions in global geo-politics will see a review of our defence assets and arrangements. For instance, the lease of the Port of Darwin to a Chinese Government-linked company would never have happened in today’s global climate.

So just like having an NRL team in PNG, the Commonwealth might consider having an AFL team in Darwin as important to national security.

And as many seasoned commentators (hello Ross Gittins) always say—what do you do when economists question a project? Put it in the defence budget under ‘national security’. It may be a stretch to consider it part of defence, although the AFL might like this, as it would allow them to ‘defend their territory’ and keep the NT a predominantly Aussie Rules zone.

Completing the National Jigsaw

And there’s no doubt that the Aussie Rules footy community would love it. As the legendary AFL commentator Bruce McAvaney once said, the NT would “complete the jigsaw” in the national competition of Australia’s truly indigenous home-grown game.
McAvaney’s View on the 20th Team

There’s that romance coming up again. Australia’s only indigenous game—with AFL teams from Tasmania to the Top End, and from the East Coast to the West Coast in every Australian capital city. It might be just too much for the AFL, as custodians of the great Australian game, to resist.


*Professor Tim Harcourt is Industry Professor and Chief Economist at the Centre for Sport, Business and Society (CSBS), University of Technology Sydney, and author of Footynomics and the Business of Sport.

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

The Reserve Bank kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% at today’s meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the central bank said the monetary policy board

judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious.

This pause follows three cuts earlier this year — in February, May and August, each by 25 basis points — which lowered the cash rate from 4.1% to its current level. Governor Michele Bullock said the bank is watching those previous cuts work through the economy.

Bullock stressed that while inflation has eased from its peak, progress remains uneven, and the bank is not ready to declare victory.

For now, patience is the safer course. The next big test will be the September quarter inflation report, due at the end of October. That release will go a long way to deciding whether cuts resume later this year or slip into 2026. Market pricing, once confident of a November move, now sees the odds as little better than a coin toss.

“By the next meeting in November, we’ll have more data on the labour market and inflation data for the September quarter,” Bullock told a press conference after the meeting.

Why the RBA is waiting

The monthly consumer price index (CPI) for August showed annual inflation rising to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in July. Although this is a 12-month high, much of the increase came from the expiry of electricity rebates — a temporary factor the bank had already anticipated.

Bullock has repeatedly said the Reserve Bank puts more weight on the quarterly “trimmed mean” inflation measure — a point she emphasised most recently before the House of Representatives economics committee. This measure strips out one-off price swings and gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation.

Even so, the monthly figures show the annual trimmed mean edged down from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August. That suggests the underlying trend remains one of gradual disinflation (a slowing in the pace of price increases), despite the lift in the headline rate.

Bullock told reporters:

The monthly data are volatile […] I don’t want to suggest that inflation is running away, but we just need to be a little bit cautious.

Progress is not yet secure. Inflation must stay within the 2–3% target range on a sustained basis before the Reserve Bank can cut with confidence. Moving too early risks undoing hard-won gains and forcing harsher measures later.



Other data reinforce this cautious approach. June quarter economic growth surprised on the upside, showing the economy is more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, unemployment has ticked higher but remains low, pointing to a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

As the statement noted,

private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise […] The housing market is strengthening […] Credit is readily available to both households and businesses.

Together, these signals give the Reserve Bank space to pause rather than rush into easing.

A big shift in expectations

The major banks have also adjusted their forecasts. NAB has ruled out any further move this year, dropping its earlier forecasts for November and February cuts and now expecting the next reduction in May 2026. Westpac still expects a November cut, but acknowledges the timing could slip.

Financial markets have also pared back their bets. Pricing once implied near-certainty of a November cut, but that probability has now fallen to roughly 50-50.

The September quarter consumer price index will be decisive: a softer result could revive expectations of an earlier cut, while a stronger one would reinforce the view that rate cuts will not resume until 2026.

With the economy stronger than forecast and CPI a touch higher, both banks and markets are pushing out the timing of cuts. The Reserve Bank’s message is clear: inflation must show sustained progress before policy can be eased. Until then, the next cut is a matter of when, not if.

Rates around the world

The Reserve Bank is not alone in being cautious. In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered three cuts in 2024, but only made its first cut of 2025 in September. The European Central Bank has reduced rates four times this year, but has kept policy steady since June.

Political tensions, volatile energy prices and fragile global growth all add to the uncertainty, reinforcing the case for patience in Australia.

For households, today’s decision offers no relief. Mortgage repayments remain at an elevated level and consumer spending is weak.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank said it will remain data-driven and responsive to risks:

The Board will be attentive to the data […] focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

For households, that means the wait for relief goes on. The next move is a cut, but today’s decision makes clear it won’t be rushed.The Conversation

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Markets remain strong amid potential government shutdown fears

Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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In Short:
– Major indices are near session highs, with the Dow up 382 points and resilient to shutdown concerns.
– Rising Treasury yields may challenge bullish sentiment, while upcoming economic reports will influence market direction.
Major indices are trading near session highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 382 points, the S&P 500 by 41 points, and the Nasdaq Composite by 100 points.
Investors seem undeterred by the looming government shutdown and new tariff announcements. Despite the challenges, markets appear resilient due to previous experiences with shutdowns.Banner

This coming week, markets should brace for monthly jobs data, assuming no shutdown occurs. Previous initial claims reports have lessened after reaching 263,000 on September 11.

Technical indicators show promise following a retreat to the 20-day SMA. The end of bearish seasonality approaches, coinciding with Q3 earnings season.

Market Perspective

However, rising Treasury yields could pose a challenge for bullish sentiment. The 10-year yield has increased over the past eight trading sessions and may close at a three-week peak.

If it stays below 4.25%, it could support ongoing bullish trends. A notable risk remains the potential negative impact of the jobs report.

Upcoming economic reports include pending home sales, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls, all key to market direction.


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Crypto market plummets near $1 billion in liquidations

Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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In Short:
– Cryptocurrency markets declined significantly, with liquidations nearing $1 billion and Bitcoin below $110,000.
– $442 million in positions were liquidated on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, raising trader concerns.
Cryptocurrency markets faced significant declines on Thursday, with liquidations nearing $1 billion, contributing to a larger selloff that has cost the sector over $160 billion in market capitalisation.
Bitcoin fell below $110,000, trading around $111,400, while Ethereum dipped below the critical $4,000 support level, marking its lowest point in seven weeks.
The global crypto market capitalisation dropped by 2.2% to $3.91 trillion.Banner

Liquidation reports revealed that $442 million in positions were forcibly closed on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, accounting for over $180 million.

The previous week saw a larger liquidation event, with $1.7 billion wiped out. Traders are concerned as a significant number of long positions were liquidated in this downturn.

Market Trends

Market analysts highlight a pattern of leveraged trading leading to cascading selloffs. Seasonal factors, regulatory uncertainty, and a strengthening US dollar contributed to the declines.

Despite the downturn, some large investors are taking the opportunity to accumulate assets.


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