Ticker Views
December time crunch – variants, deadlines and wild cards
Let’s look ahead to the end of the year in Washington. There are enormous issues, tests, and challenges across the board. There is no certainty of the outcomes
The variants
The eruption of Omicron is a rude shock to a world struggling to recover from the pandemic. For President Biden, while the quantum of this new health threat itself is not yet clear, the political danger is clearly visible.
More people have died from Covid in the United States this year than in 2020. Americans are still dying at a rate of around 1000 per day.
The vaccination crusade has stalled at about 70 per cent of the population fully vaxxed. Even before Omicron, the difference between the US at 70 per cent and the most populous states in Australia at 90 per cent+ is the very visible difference in overall public health.
America’s vaccine deficit has been fuelled by the rancid politics spawned in the Trump days. Biden’s appeal on taking office was that he would bring Covid under control. It is under control for the vaccinated but not for those naked to the virus.
Biden’s message of reassurance to the American people that the US can face this new threat, and manage it successfully without lockdowns, is designed to counter the uncertainty, fear, and choppiness across an economy infected with inflation and clots in the supply chains.
The new variant – and all the uncertainties it presents – poses further tests for any rebound in Biden’s approval in the short term
And that means that for the moment he has less political capital in shaping public opinion to get his legislative agenda done this year.
The deadlines
Funding for the Federal government runs out on December 3. Unless Congress approves money for government operations (“supply” in the Australian context) the government will shut down next Saturday.
While President Trump and Senate Republicans in the Obama presidency saw some virtue in playing the government shutdown card, there are no winners from such an exercise.
The logical outcome is to punt and extend government funding until next March. This is what should happen, will likely happen- but simple logic is in short supply in Washington these days.
The debt limit of the United States expires any time after December 15. This is the ceiling authorised by law for the United States to pay its debts – to its citizens and to creditors worldwide.
The United States has never defaulted on its debt, but there have been many moments when this issue has been taken to the brink. Debt limit fights have in recent years been the played with the hardest of hardball tactics.
Republicans have made clear there will not be any votes from their side on the debt limit; Biden and the Democrats have to own it all. Tensions on this issue between the Republican and Democratic leaders in the Senate this year have run extremely high.
It may be that the only alternative to passing the debt limit is to include it in the Biden mega-package on social programs and climate, now pending in the Senate.
The Biden package offers universal prekindergarten, generous subsidies for childcare, expanded financial aid for college, hundreds of billions of dollars in housing support, home and community care for older Americans, a new hearing benefit for Medicare and price controls for prescription drugs.
On climate there is more than half a trillion dollars to migrate the U.S. economy away from fossil fuels
In the words of one of President Nixon’s aides, this is “the whole enchilada” – Biden’s defining social and climate legacy.
But the only way this legislation passes the Senate is if every Democrat – all 50 – vote for it. And those votes are not yet assured. At least two Democrats – Manchin of West Virginia and Sinema of Arizona – are yet to pledge they will vote for this bill.
If Democrats remain divided, the legislation will fail with immense damage to both their president, their party and themselves.
Wild Cards
Israel’s war in Gaza suddenly exploded in May. Biden’s expert management of the Gaza crisis may be tested again. There are other ticking foreign policy bombs.
There are heavy indications that Russia’s Putin wants to move on Ukraine, possibly occupying the country and overthrowing its president. And in Iran, the European powers and the United States are at a make-or-break point as to whether negotiations to halt Iran’s nuclear program will continue or end.
By Christmas, either issue could lead to a real fear that there will be military confrontation for the United States – perhaps imminently with Russia, perhaps in 2022 with Iran.
All of this – the course of the pandemic, the ability of the US government to function and pay its debts, the strength of the Biden presidency, and the state of peace in the world – is at stake this coming month.