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Post Market Wrap | RBA says inflation has increased in many parts of the world

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Resilient economy and low unemployment likely to push inflation higher in coming months. 
  • 10-year bond yield hits 6 year high at 2.96 percent.
  • Investors should brace for higher RBA interest rates this year.  

RBA on hold … for now

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its April 5 Board meeting decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 0.1 percent. It has been at this level since November 2020, when the RBA reduced the official rate in anticipation of an economic slump resulting from enforced lockdowns arising from the COVID pandemic.  

The RBA indicated that it is closely monitoring emerging inflationary pressures in determining the timing around an increase to the official cash rate. The RBA noted that supply chain disruption has led to shortages of goods and materials, resulting in higher input costs. The Bank is also cognisant of the inflationary impact of soaring petrol prices. Rising house purchase costs and grocery inflation related to flood damaged crops, are other factors contributing to the rising inflationary outlook. The potential for higher inflation is exacerbated by the tight labour market that may see higher wages, adding further pressure to input costs. The latest ANZ monthly job advertisement survey pointed out that job ads are at a 13 year high. The survey supports the RBA’s forecast that unemployment will fall below 4 percent this year and remain low into next year. The Federal budget papers go further and have forecasted unemployment to remain below 4 percent for the next 3 years. Australia hasn’t experienced this level of unemployment for 48 years! 

The RBA observed in its April 5 statement that periods of low unemployment correlate with an increase in real wages, implying wage increases at a rate above the inflation rate. This prospect has elevated the inflationary concerns shared by the RBA Board.  

The inflation outlook is further complicated by the $8.6 billion cost of living relief package announced in the Federal Budget, at a time when the economy is already performing strongly. The cash injection is aimed at low to middle-income workers, who tend to spend any money received. 

The Australian economy is strong

The RBA’s announcement referred to the strength of the Australian economy following an easing of forced lockdowns introduced at the onset of the Omicron variant. The Bank also stated that household and business balance sheets are strong, and the construction work backlog is supporting employment growth. 

The RBA acknowledged that while inflation is increasing in Australia, it is less than the level in other countries. According to the RBA, underlying inflation in Australia is 2.6 percent, while the headline rate is 3.5 percent. The RBA will publish its revised inflation forecasts in May and has recently stated it expects annual headline inflation to exceed 4 percent in the months ahead. 

The impact of higher interest rates is more readily absorbed by the economy during periods of strong employment and wages growth, than in times of a weakening economy. Moderately higher interest rates at this stage of the economic cycle, should enable economic growth to be sustained at a rate consistent with near full employment, without embedded consumer price inflation, that may generate a wages spiral. This implies that an interest rate rise in the near term should have a less adverse outcome for investment markets and households, than if left until inflation is entrenched within the economy.

A strong domestic economy has given the RBA grounds to respond to an expected acceleration in the rate of inflation in the period ahead. The response will be an increase in interest rates. The question is – when, and by how much?       

Investment Implications 

RBA interest rate policy is determined by underlying inflationary expectations and not the headline inflation rate. Interestingly, the 10-year bond rate is widely considered to be a useful pointer to the direction of future interest rates. This is because bond market participants on both sides of the trade must agree a bond price that reflects the direction and quantum of the interest rate (yield) payable over the duration of the bond. Accordingly, trends in long-dated bond yields represent the real-time collective wisdom of bond market participants, making changes in long-dated bond yields a useful marker that illustrates where interest rates may be headed.    

The Australian Government 10-year bond yield has been steadily rising in recent months. The 10-year bond yield rose to 2.95 percent today, well up from 1.67 percent on 1 January 2022. The message from the Australian bond market is clear -Australian interest rates are set to move higher, on the back of higher inflation. 

The forecast continuing low level of unemployment below 4 percent, strong economic growth forecasts, and emerging signs of inflation, all indicate the need for historically low interest rates no longer exists.

The evidence suggests that the RBA is likely to announce higher interest rates soon. This may occur in June after the RBA’s revised inflation forecasts are announced in May.  

A major implication of higher interest rates for investors is the impact on equity and property valuations. The all-time low interest rate environment has supported equity and property valuations for a lengthy period. 

In response to a changing interest rate environment, now is the time for investors to evaluate their portfolio in terms of withstanding the headwinds likely to accompany a gradually increasing cost of money over the coming 12-18 months.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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