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Post Market Wrap | Macmahon positioned to maintain track record of achieving earnings and revenue guidance

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Revenue and EBITDA up 24 percent pa over past five years
  • Recurrent revenue and moderate gearing supports strong capex program   
  • Higher margins forecast for second-half as start-up projects move to steady state
  • Technology and diversification across commodities and mining activities driving earnings growth. 

Overview

Macmahon continues to build on its proven track record of growing revenue and earnings, while maintaining its history of meeting or exceeding market guidance. This includes meeting its year-to-date FY22 guidance.

Both Revenue and Underlying EBITDA have increased by 24 percent pa over the past 5 years to June 2021, despite a period in FY21, when growth was paused due to the impact of COVID. 

In the current financial year, Macmahon has achieved considerable new contract activity across the business. Mining services activity at Gwalia, Foxleigh, Dawson South and Fimiston has ramped up, while new project activity is planned for Warrawoona and King of Hills Underground, in the months ahead. The majority of Macmahon assets are deployed on contracts of 3 or more years. This recurrent revenue enables Macmahon to meet growth capex while at the same time, maintain a robust balance sheet. At December 2021, Macmahon had cash on hand of $61 million and net debt of $242 million, for a gearing ratio of 31 percent.  

Macmahon plans to invest a total of $300 million in capital expenditure during FY21 and FY22, in support of earnings growth beyond FY22. Capital expenditure outlays in the first half of FY22 were $152 million. $80 million of this total is for growth capex for new projects.     

First half-year 2022

The first half-year result to December 2021 was impacted by COVID, resulting in higher input costs, which squeezed the Underlying EBIT(A) margin to 5.8 percent, for a $47 million result. Statutory profit was $3.3 million, down from $43.1 million in the prior corresponding period. The statutory profit outcome included the GBF earn-out cost, Software as a Service costs and the amortisation of customer contract assets that were recognised on historical acquisitions. Normalising these costs, Underlying Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) was $31.7 million, compared to $30.4 million, in the previous corresponding period. 

Underlying operating cash flow conversion was impacted by higher working capital requirements for new project start-ups and higher inventory levels, in response to COVID-related supply chain disruption. The Underlying EBITDA conversion ratio was 70 percent, resulting in cash flow generation of $96.6 million. This compares to cash flow of $96.7 million for a conversion ratio from Underlying EBITDA of 78.8 percent, in the previous corresponding reporting period.   

Macmahon maintains a conservative dividend payout ratio policy of 20 percent of Underlying NPAT.

The interim dividend was 30 cents per share and unfranked. This dividend will be paid to shareholders on April 6.

The FY22 outlook includes several new projects progressing to steady state operations, from the start-up phase, supporting higher margins in the second half year. Full year Underlying EBIT(A) guidance is estimated to be in the range of $95 million to $105 million. Revenue guidance has been increased to be in the range of $1.6 billion – $1.7 billion, up from previous guidance of $1.4 billion – $1.5 billon.   

Image: file

Five-Year Strategy 

The Macmahon business strategy over the coming five years can be summarised as one involving diversification, technology and people.

Currently Macmahon has a 75 percent concentration in precious metals of gold and copper/gold commodities. Over the coming five-year period, other commodities including lithium, nickel, mineral sands and uranium are to be targeted, together with iron ore and metallurgical coal. 

The revenue mix in FY18 was 78 percent surface mining and 21 percent underground mining and just 1 percent of revenue was attributable to mining support services. The current financial year revenue pipeline is targeting 41 percent surface mining, 38 percent underground mining and 21 percent mining support services.     

Partnering with technology specialists to drive efficiencies and productivity improvements is key to Macmahon’s five-year growth strategy. This includes in-cab monitoring using AI, automated data for smart and informed decisioning as well as systems for remote operations and control centres in surface and underground mining activities.

Macmahon is also embarking on a training and development program to develop apprentices by rotating them through domestic and offshore opportunities.

Revenue growth is likely to continue, through exposure to a broader range of commodities, and diversified contract mining services, that includes more underground mining activity and increased exposure to mining support services. Productivity-enhancing technology and a highly trained workforce at a time when labour is becoming scarce, supports higher margins on steadily increasing revenue. These factors point to consistent revenue and earnings growth over the medium-term.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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